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news.az, Azerbaijan
Aug 13 2011
'West shows superficial approach to Karabakh settlement'
Sat 13 August 2011 07:53 GMT | 3:53 Local Time
News.Az interviews Azer Babayev, Research Fellow at Peace Research
Institute Frankfurt (PRİF) and Doctor of Political Sciences.
Might Russia's intensification in resolution of the Karabakh conflict
promote progress in this conflict settlement?
It is clear that Russia is a country that can best contribute to the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict, because Russia in comparison to
other external forces has an ample opportunity to influence the
parties to the conflict, in particular, Armenia.
The special role of Russia, along with the fact that it is the largest
state, also lies in the fact that the country is located in this
region. Given the historical factors, it is impossible not to see that
Russia has a greater capacity to deal with conflict. Thus, Russia who
has intensified in the peace process of Karabakh settlement is able to
find a common ground with the parties to the conflict.
Does Russia benefit from the resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
Overall, it should be noted that Russia does not benefit from the
conflict solution, at least, it was so recently. Karabakh conflict
plays a role of the main chain that binds Azerbaijan and Armenia to
Russia. The activeness demonstrated by President Dmitriy Medvedev is
likely connected with the upcoming presidential elections in Russia,
since any important achievements in the peace process on Karabakh
settlement will raise his influence both inside the country and in the
West. Thus, Medvedev will raise his chances for the next term of
presidency. On the other hand, Russia's constructive contribution to
the conflict settlement will also strengthen its positions in the
post-Soviet space.
The 2008 war in Georgia diminished regional trust in Russia. Even
Belarus which is considered the closest ally of Russia became more
cautious in the relations with Moscow.
How may Russia act in case of a new way?
Russia's reaction against Georgia in 2008 already has a precedent of
its conduct in similar situations. But I think that direct armed
intervention of Russia in case of a new war between Azerbaijan and
Armenia is unlikely. I suppose that Russia will try to influence the
result and process of war indirectly. Overall, I think that official
Moscow is not interested in this war. I can say for sure that Russia
will try to hamper the new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
US and France are satisfied that Russian President independently
organizes meetings between Azerbaijan and Armenia to discuss ways to
solve the Karabakh conflict. Does this mean that the US and the EU
have no interest in this conflict?
It is clearly seen that in recent years Russia has taken over a major
initiative to resolve the Karabakh conflict. Western powers for their
part accept this reality because they understand that it is impossible
to effectively deal with the conflict in absence of a will on the part
of Russia. Given that the Karabakh conflict is not one of the priority
interests for the United States and the European Union, we can
understand the reason for West's observation position on this issue.
In general, the West believes that Azerbaijan and Armenia are small
states, and the conflict existing between them is not of particular
significance for the world order. In other words, the West has a
superficial approach to the Karabakh conflict settlement. Along with
this, it is believed that the military-political status quo related to
the Karabakh conflict has been formed, there is a relative "peace",
some regional projects are being implemented, etc. So, West does not
see any "pressing" motive to solve the problem and it is used to this
situation. In addition, it should be noted that it requires some
resources and efforts to change the situation. However, it is
noticeable that Western forces are still not ready for this.
May active involvement of the United States and the European Union in
Karabakh conflict settlement bring real and effective results?
Of course, it may. However, the West sees Karabakh conflict as the
most difficult problem of the South Caucasus. Therefore, influence of
external forces on the issue is not appropriate given that the region,
in particular, Azerbaijan is a country where interests of various
social forces come in contact.
In this case, the poor thing is not that Western forces do not put
specific pressure on aggressor country. The West showed a different
position in a conflict between Russia and Georgia in 2008. In addition
to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russian forces temporarily occupied
other Georgian land. However, such a powerful country like Russia was
forced to withdraw from these lands under a strong pressure from the
West.
There is no such pressure against Armenia, which, in turn, is a factor
not contributing to peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict. In
general, both West and Russia are trying to maintain the situation
where there are no hostilities. Either way, the external forces are
well aware that Karabakh's `independence' or its joining Armenia is
possible only with the consent of leadership and people of Azerbaijan.
Lala B.
News.Az
Aug 13 2011
'West shows superficial approach to Karabakh settlement'
Sat 13 August 2011 07:53 GMT | 3:53 Local Time
News.Az interviews Azer Babayev, Research Fellow at Peace Research
Institute Frankfurt (PRİF) and Doctor of Political Sciences.
Might Russia's intensification in resolution of the Karabakh conflict
promote progress in this conflict settlement?
It is clear that Russia is a country that can best contribute to the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict, because Russia in comparison to
other external forces has an ample opportunity to influence the
parties to the conflict, in particular, Armenia.
The special role of Russia, along with the fact that it is the largest
state, also lies in the fact that the country is located in this
region. Given the historical factors, it is impossible not to see that
Russia has a greater capacity to deal with conflict. Thus, Russia who
has intensified in the peace process of Karabakh settlement is able to
find a common ground with the parties to the conflict.
Does Russia benefit from the resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
Overall, it should be noted that Russia does not benefit from the
conflict solution, at least, it was so recently. Karabakh conflict
plays a role of the main chain that binds Azerbaijan and Armenia to
Russia. The activeness demonstrated by President Dmitriy Medvedev is
likely connected with the upcoming presidential elections in Russia,
since any important achievements in the peace process on Karabakh
settlement will raise his influence both inside the country and in the
West. Thus, Medvedev will raise his chances for the next term of
presidency. On the other hand, Russia's constructive contribution to
the conflict settlement will also strengthen its positions in the
post-Soviet space.
The 2008 war in Georgia diminished regional trust in Russia. Even
Belarus which is considered the closest ally of Russia became more
cautious in the relations with Moscow.
How may Russia act in case of a new way?
Russia's reaction against Georgia in 2008 already has a precedent of
its conduct in similar situations. But I think that direct armed
intervention of Russia in case of a new war between Azerbaijan and
Armenia is unlikely. I suppose that Russia will try to influence the
result and process of war indirectly. Overall, I think that official
Moscow is not interested in this war. I can say for sure that Russia
will try to hamper the new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
US and France are satisfied that Russian President independently
organizes meetings between Azerbaijan and Armenia to discuss ways to
solve the Karabakh conflict. Does this mean that the US and the EU
have no interest in this conflict?
It is clearly seen that in recent years Russia has taken over a major
initiative to resolve the Karabakh conflict. Western powers for their
part accept this reality because they understand that it is impossible
to effectively deal with the conflict in absence of a will on the part
of Russia. Given that the Karabakh conflict is not one of the priority
interests for the United States and the European Union, we can
understand the reason for West's observation position on this issue.
In general, the West believes that Azerbaijan and Armenia are small
states, and the conflict existing between them is not of particular
significance for the world order. In other words, the West has a
superficial approach to the Karabakh conflict settlement. Along with
this, it is believed that the military-political status quo related to
the Karabakh conflict has been formed, there is a relative "peace",
some regional projects are being implemented, etc. So, West does not
see any "pressing" motive to solve the problem and it is used to this
situation. In addition, it should be noted that it requires some
resources and efforts to change the situation. However, it is
noticeable that Western forces are still not ready for this.
May active involvement of the United States and the European Union in
Karabakh conflict settlement bring real and effective results?
Of course, it may. However, the West sees Karabakh conflict as the
most difficult problem of the South Caucasus. Therefore, influence of
external forces on the issue is not appropriate given that the region,
in particular, Azerbaijan is a country where interests of various
social forces come in contact.
In this case, the poor thing is not that Western forces do not put
specific pressure on aggressor country. The West showed a different
position in a conflict between Russia and Georgia in 2008. In addition
to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russian forces temporarily occupied
other Georgian land. However, such a powerful country like Russia was
forced to withdraw from these lands under a strong pressure from the
West.
There is no such pressure against Armenia, which, in turn, is a factor
not contributing to peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict. In
general, both West and Russia are trying to maintain the situation
where there are no hostilities. Either way, the external forces are
well aware that Karabakh's `independence' or its joining Armenia is
possible only with the consent of leadership and people of Azerbaijan.
Lala B.
News.Az