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  • War Is Inevitable

    WAR IS INEVITABLE

    Lragir.am
    http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/interview23065.html
    24/08/2011

    Interview with Alexander Qananyan, political scientist, resident of
    Karvachar, NKR

    How would you comment on the failure to push the sides to reach an
    agreement on the basic principles of Madrid at the Kazan three-party
    meeting followed by Medvedev-Aliyev meeting though the Minsk Group
    Co-Chairs had issued an obligating approval?

    The "basic principles" drafted in the framework of the process
    of negotiations mediated by the Minsk Group were so far from the
    current military-political situation that they were born dead. Only
    those naïve who know nothing about the essence of the issue or such
    dilettante experts who pursue goals that have nothing in common
    with the settlement of the issue, such as Thomas de Waal, or the
    author of the draft of the principles Sabine Freiser could believe
    in the implementation of those principles. Both Serzh Sargsyan and
    Ilham Aliyev have already understood that an attempt at even partial
    fulfillment of the principles of Madrid will blow up the situation in
    the region and lead to a war with an uncontrolled and unpredictable
    outcome. Aliyev has apparently understood that the world powers
    "supporting" the process are unable to save Serzh Sargsyan's government
    and physical existence should he sign the "capitulation" of Madrid or
    attempts to return the territories. In other words, Aliyev realized
    that even in case of political and physical sacrifice of Sargsyan,
    Sarkozy or Obama or Medvedev won't offer him any region.

    Hence, only the military option is left to Aliyev. But he is a great
    deal more realistic than Sargsyan (thanks to not having beside him
    such adviser-ideologists of "end of state" as Tigran Sargsyan) and
    understands that war would pose grave and incalculable dangers.

    Dangerous uncertainties multiply against the background of comparative
    indirect hints by Medvedev on the events in South Ossetia.

    But this does not mean they will be able to persuade Aliyev not to
    start a war. Foreign forces interested in the resumption of hostilities
    in some stage may pledge guarantees to Aliyev and push him to next
    war adventure. Although, again, unlike the Armenian leadership, Ilham
    does not trust foreign forces blindly and unconditionally. He knows
    he might be betrayed. He is already terrified as he can see tendencies
    of his "mubarakization" projected by the West. But this does not mean
    there will be no war. Proceeding from historical and political rules,
    it is even inevitable, and we need to be ready for it with maximum
    awareness. Ilham Aliyev is a hostage of his craving for government
    and wealth and years of "bold" vows to cause total military defeat of
    Armenians. The tendencies of "Mubarakization" and the prospect of a
    great many other uncertainties hurt Aliyev's "tender" soul, and one
    day, out of this complex of hopelessness, he may resume hostilities...

    Don't regular failures of negotiation prove that without NKR
    participation the parties will never reach agreement?

    Though it may sound strange for our audience, the issue has nothing
    to do with NKR participation in the negotiations. Once, the first
    president of Armenia, trying to avoid personal responsibility in
    front of the international community for the Artsakh war, committed
    a series of constitutional crimes regarding not only the recognition
    of territorial integrity of independent Azerbaijan within the borders
    of Soviet Azerbaijan, but also imposing on the Artsakh authorities
    "independence" from Armenia. Hence, the real and only guarantee of
    failure of the "Madrid" and similar principles is not the appearance
    of the Artsakh authorities at the table of negotiations as a "separate
    side" but also the strong defiance of the Armenian people and first
    of all the Armenians of Artsakh and the readiness to support it
    politically with popular determination.

    Let's recall that in 1989 Artsakh was legally and de facto part of
    Armenia. The naïve performance to present Artsakh as a "separate
    party" allegedly created a large scope for diplomatic "maneuver". In
    reality, everyone knows the obvious reality that Artsakh is just a
    region of Armenia with a special status.

    Will the Minsk Group-mediated negotiations continue?

    These negotiations following the ceasefire cannot be effective because
    they have been originally based on legal and political self-limitations
    by the Armenian official diplomacy and other vicious premises. Hence,
    it is not accidental that proposals on settlement were not only
    unbeneficial for Armenia also would lead to de facto capitulation
    and a national catastrophe. The alternative is clear - as a result
    of the failure in the genocidal war perpetrated by Azerbaijan
    against Artsakh the current status quo has been established. Vast
    territories that used to be populated with Armenians and belong to
    Armenians historically and legally are now out of our control. There
    was redistribution of the Armenian and Azeri population in accordance
    with the areas of control. Similar resolutions were drafted and legally
    set down in 1945 during Europe's post-war regulation in East Prussia,
    Pomerania, Silesia and Sudetes, and recently in Bosnia, Croatia,
    Kosovo. Azerbaijan should admit the defeat of its genocidal policy and
    be happy with our greatest gift to that country, the ceasefire. The
    regional geopolitical situation and Armenia's national potential are
    enough to have such a position. The conflict over Artsakh, as well as
    the Arab-Israeli conflicts defy mechanisms of final settlement. This is
    an illusion, "utopia". In the case of such deep and defying historical,
    geographic, civilization conflicts, "peace is possible only when
    war is impossible". The only guarantee of non-resumption of war and
    lasting regional stability is maintenance of general military political
    balance. The forces which are not interested in unpredictable wars in
    the region are already close to adequate understanding of this reality,
    meanwhile, the Armenian ruling elite is usually and strategically late.

    I wonder what the people of this region, especially the residents
    of Karvachar think about the negotiations which render surrender of
    their homes to Azerbaijan possible?

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    The population of Karvachar is coping with the practical problems of
    reconstruction of the region vastly damaged by the war. Here, very
    few people are interested in politics. The general attitude to the
    surrender of territories is negative. I would add on my behalf that
    the RoA and NKR authorities need to resume housing construction in the
    liberated areas suspended in 2007 and draft and launch a strategy of
    the repopulation policy. Otherwise, they will be accused strongly and
    publicly for committing the gravest crime against the national security
    of Armenia (RoA, Artsakh). By the way, recent miserable results of
    the Minsk Group-mediated negotiations allow for no other alternative.

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