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ARMENIAN, AZERBAIJANI GOVERNMENTS 'PRISONERS OF OWN RHETORIC'
news.az
Aug 23,2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews Jeff Sahadeo, research fellow at the Institute
for European & Russian Studies at Canada's Carleton University.
How did the Russo-Georgian war in August 2008 change the situation in
the South Caucasus and the attitude of the Western community towards
the region?
Russia established its military superiority and Georgia now knows it
cannot count on direct Western support to reclaim Abkhazia and South
Ossetia. Georgian President Saakashvili continues to consider the
reincorporation of these regions a priority, but most Georgians now
have accepted them as lost, and are far more interested in economic
progress. Anti-Russian attitudes have actually calmed in Georgia as
they are seen as a potential economic partner, but these have not
penetrated the higher administration. In terms of the attitude in the
West, Georgia is viewed with some suspicion by the Obama administration
and its efforts to join NATO now have receded significantly, especially
as European nations need Russian energy and with the reports that
Georgia played a significant role in initiating the 2008 conflict.
How would you estimate the current situation in the South Caucasus?
How real is the threat of a new war here?
The Nagorno-Karakbakh situation is increasingly tense, as both Armenia
and Azerbaijan (especially Azerbaijan) increase military budgets and
have made no meaningful moves to compromise. Indeed, both governments
make quite bellicose public statements to increase their popularity,
exploiting nationalist tendencies. Continued violent incidents
around the region make it possible that this could turn again into a
larger conflict. Armenia's continued difficult economic situation as
Azerbaijan becomes wealthier adds another element of unpredictability.
Have relations between Russia and the West normalized since the
Russo-Georgian war?
I think relations did normalize with the Obama "reset" policy and with
the international reports that pinned a significant portion of the
blame for starting the war on Georgia. Russia's geopolitical position
and energy reserves make it an important global player and the US
would rather keep them close when dealing with more immediate threats
like Iran and North Korea and perhaps even China in the longer run.
Given that, the Russians are wary of becoming too close to the US,
especially as there remains some post Cold War distrust, stoked by
the authoritarian tendencies of the Putin/Medvedev tandem.
Is it good for Azerbaijan and the Karabakh settlement to keep good
relations with Russia to prevent a new Russian military invasion in
the region?
Certainly the Georgian conflict proved that Russia is the one country
that would intervene militarily in the region and therefore it would
be important for Azerbaijan to do everything possible to keep good
relations, so that if there is a conflict Russia would stay neutral
and not assist Armenia directly or indirectly.
Do you expect progress from the Russian mediation on a Karabakh
settlement?
No, I do not expect much progress for the reasons stated above -
that both governments have presented uncompromising positions to
their own public and pledged to win whatever settlement comes about
-- so that precludes any give and take that would expose them to
potentially significant nationalist opposition. So the governments
have become prisoners of their own bellicose rhetoric, even if they
wanted to make compromises.
news.az
Aug 23,2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews Jeff Sahadeo, research fellow at the Institute
for European & Russian Studies at Canada's Carleton University.
How did the Russo-Georgian war in August 2008 change the situation in
the South Caucasus and the attitude of the Western community towards
the region?
Russia established its military superiority and Georgia now knows it
cannot count on direct Western support to reclaim Abkhazia and South
Ossetia. Georgian President Saakashvili continues to consider the
reincorporation of these regions a priority, but most Georgians now
have accepted them as lost, and are far more interested in economic
progress. Anti-Russian attitudes have actually calmed in Georgia as
they are seen as a potential economic partner, but these have not
penetrated the higher administration. In terms of the attitude in the
West, Georgia is viewed with some suspicion by the Obama administration
and its efforts to join NATO now have receded significantly, especially
as European nations need Russian energy and with the reports that
Georgia played a significant role in initiating the 2008 conflict.
How would you estimate the current situation in the South Caucasus?
How real is the threat of a new war here?
The Nagorno-Karakbakh situation is increasingly tense, as both Armenia
and Azerbaijan (especially Azerbaijan) increase military budgets and
have made no meaningful moves to compromise. Indeed, both governments
make quite bellicose public statements to increase their popularity,
exploiting nationalist tendencies. Continued violent incidents
around the region make it possible that this could turn again into a
larger conflict. Armenia's continued difficult economic situation as
Azerbaijan becomes wealthier adds another element of unpredictability.
Have relations between Russia and the West normalized since the
Russo-Georgian war?
I think relations did normalize with the Obama "reset" policy and with
the international reports that pinned a significant portion of the
blame for starting the war on Georgia. Russia's geopolitical position
and energy reserves make it an important global player and the US
would rather keep them close when dealing with more immediate threats
like Iran and North Korea and perhaps even China in the longer run.
Given that, the Russians are wary of becoming too close to the US,
especially as there remains some post Cold War distrust, stoked by
the authoritarian tendencies of the Putin/Medvedev tandem.
Is it good for Azerbaijan and the Karabakh settlement to keep good
relations with Russia to prevent a new Russian military invasion in
the region?
Certainly the Georgian conflict proved that Russia is the one country
that would intervene militarily in the region and therefore it would
be important for Azerbaijan to do everything possible to keep good
relations, so that if there is a conflict Russia would stay neutral
and not assist Armenia directly or indirectly.
Do you expect progress from the Russian mediation on a Karabakh
settlement?
No, I do not expect much progress for the reasons stated above -
that both governments have presented uncompromising positions to
their own public and pledged to win whatever settlement comes about
-- so that precludes any give and take that would expose them to
potentially significant nationalist opposition. So the governments
have become prisoners of their own bellicose rhetoric, even if they
wanted to make compromises.