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  • Relying on Emigration and Remittances

    Relying on Emigration and Remittances

    Naira Hayrumyan

    Story from Lragir.am News:
    http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments23501.html

    Published: 13:36:08 - 24/09/2011



    No international organization has stated yet that Armenia is
    overcoming the oligarchic system and monopolization of the economy.
    The positive evaluations of the organizations are on the legislative
    reform which reduced bureaucracy in business registration. These
    evaluations are caused by the isolation of the Armenian banks from the
    world's financial system.

    Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan uses these evaluations as a weapon
    against his opponents. He refers everyone who worries about the
    economic problems to the evaluations by international organizations
    without noting which criteria were evaluated by them.

    Leaving aside the political reasons why Armenia is ranked by
    international organizations higher now, we will dwell on economic
    data.

    International organizations hail simplification and higher level of
    freedom of registration of business. Anyone in Armenia will tell you
    that problems with doing business in Armenia are ue to the dominance
    of oligarchs on the market rather than registration. While an ordinary
    man can register his business in only three days, he will be denied
    access to the market. A whole system of dirty methods of competition
    works, ranging from legislative privileges for major businesses to
    impeding irrigation or intimidation. Member of Parliament Artsvik
    Minasyan, ARF-D, Vice-Chairman of the NA Standing Committee of Finance
    and Budget Affairs, for example, thinks that difficulties arise from
    preferences given to selected ones.

    Has the Armenian economy become more free? Let the prime minister
    mention one area which has been de-monopolized or is free for economic
    operators. Let him point out an oligarch who has been deprived of tax
    and customs preferences.

    How many new enterprises opened thanks to these reforms? Has
    investment growth been triggered by increased freedom of economic
    activities? The National Statistics Service notes investments in
    Armenia are a little above zero.

    The prime minister says the government's policy was effective, the
    country got over the crisis and is entering a phase of economic
    activity. But, the president, apparently, has a different opinion.

    Last week, Serzh Sargsyan signed a decree on the formation of a State
    Coordinating Council to enhance the efficiency of economic activities
    and improve the legislative framework in order to overcome the
    obstacles to develop business and the free economy, to simplify public
    services and improve the laws.

    Apparently, some populist events are to come this autumn. Possible
    introduction of differentiated income tax rates is considered, the
    Chairman of the NA Committee on Economic Affairs Vardan Ayvazyan
    stated.

    I wonder why the international agencies suddenly wished to increase
    Armenia's rating: to attract investors or to support the government of
    Armenia prior to elections. Levon Ter-Petrosyan thinks the West
    supports Sargsyan's team and so it ignores the rigged election in
    2008. Now, instead of a rigged election rigged economic indices are
    required. For political reasons, it is not even ruled out that the
    foreign debt will be written off.

    Charles Sevil, the Director of Fitch Company, expert for Armenia, told
    News.am: `Payments of debt will grow in 2012-2013, in addition, the
    greatest part of them will be directed to the IMF and other
    international organizations. In turn, the IMF debt can be rebuilt.'

    So, political issues will be solved but it means that Armenian
    citizens will live in an oligarchic country like before, relying, like
    Tigran Sargsyan, on emigration and remittances.

    In the first 8 months of 2011, physical persons transferred 772
    million dollars to Armenia for non-commercial purposes. Compared with
    the same period of the last year, we can see that transfers grew by
    25%. Statistics also shows, the number of people who left Armenia
    during the first 8 months of 2011is equal to the number of people who
    left the country during 2010.

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