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Yerevan Mulls Pros And Cons Of Putin's Eurasian Union Vision

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  • Yerevan Mulls Pros And Cons Of Putin's Eurasian Union Vision

    YEREVAN MULLS PROS AND CONS OF PUTIN'S EURASIAN UNION VISION
    by Gayane Abrahamyan

    EurasiaNet.org, NY
    Oct 31 2011

    It may still be only on the drawing board, but Russian Prime Minister
    Vladimir Putin's proposed Eurasian Union, an economic bloc of former
    Soviet republics, already is stirring concern in Armenia about the
    future of Yerevan's independence from Moscow.

    In an October 3 commentary in the daily Izvestia, Putin, who plans to
    run for Russia's presidency next year, described the bloc as allowing
    its members "a higher degree of integration" on "a new ... political
    and economic basis," without a return to the Soviet past.

    So far, the Armenian government has not elaborated about its plans
    to join the bloc, but conjecture runs strong.

    In what has been touted as a first step toward realizing Putin's plan,
    on October 18 Armenia and seven other former Soviet republics signed
    an agreement to create a free trade zone within the Commonwealth
    of Independent States, the club of ex-Soviet republics that could,
    conceivably, serve as a launch pad for Putin's new union. Armenia
    also appears to have put aside earlier reluctance about another
    potential building block for the Eurasian Union, a customs union
    between CIS members.

    Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisian has praised the Eurasian Union, saying
    that it shows "perspective" and "goes with the times." President
    Serzh Sargsyan himself has not yet released an official comment,
    but a televised remark by Union of Armenians of Russia Chairman Ara
    Abrahamian, a prominent businessman, that Armenian President Serzh
    Sargsyan allegedly told him that he approved of the Eurasian Union,
    has been interpreted widely to mean that Armenia will sign on with
    the plan.

    The idea, however, has outraged some Armenian opposition members,
    who believe that Russia's only goal is "to increase dependence [among
    former Soviet republics], and create multi-[layers of] dependence"
    on Moscow.

    "The goal is not the creation of a European-Union-like structure with
    several equally powerful countries as members, but to simply not allow
    CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] countries get too carried
    away and deepen their relationships with the West, which might lead
    to less dependence," argued Styopa Safarian, head of the opposition
    Heritage Party's parliamentary faction.

    The nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation, a onetime government
    coalition member, echoes that view. Armenia's economy itself will
    probably "neither win nor lose" from membership in the Eurasian Union,
    but the union could endanger Armenia's "independence" from Moscow,
    predicted MP Artsvik Minasian, an economist by background.

    Russia currently ranks as Armenia's largest economic partner, with $3
    billion worth of investments in the country, according to government
    data. Russian firms control 80 percent of Armenia's energy resources,
    account for two out of three of its telecommunications companies and
    now hold a 30-year management contract for its railway.

    Strategic ties play a role, too: Moscow has a 49-year agreement for
    the stationing of troops at Gyumri in northern Armenia.

    Safarian contends that, by joining the Eurasian Union, Armenia would
    just add one more block to that pillar of influence, at the risk of
    any EU-friendly economic development track and, possibly, anticipated
    western investments. Last year, Armenia and the European Union
    started negotiations on an Association Agreement that would provide
    the opportunity for a free trade area and a simplified visa regime.

    "Of course, the European Union invests only in countries that are
    predictable, share the same set of values, and sees a future with
    those countries," claimed Safarian. "If we join this [Eurasian] union,
    we will once and forever be out of that value field and, consequently,
    will also be left out of major investment projects."

    The European Union has made no statement about Putin's Eurasian Union,
    but has stressed that the CIS free trade zone has no impact on a
    member country's ties with the EU.

    "[T]here is no problem or incompatibility between negotiating a deep
    and comprehensive free trade agreement and being in association with
    the European Union on the one side and having free trade agreements
    with other countries on the other side," Gunnar Wiegand, who oversees
    the South Caucasus for the European Commission's European Neighbourhood
    Policy, commented on October 26, reported RFE/RL.

    One senior MP from the governing Republican Party of Armenia
    dismisses fears that the Eurasian Union could spell an end to
    Armenia's economic freedom of maneuver. "This is just a premature
    panic. That's all," Deputy Parliamentary Speaker Samvel Nikoyan
    commented to EurasiaNet.org.

    Another Republican parliamentarian, Shirak Torosian, a member of the
    Foreign Affairs Committee, believes, however, that "the Putin-submitted
    plan is innocent only at first glance."

    "We have to think very carefully not to fall into another -- this
    time, final -- trap," Torosian said, in reference to controversial
    economic deals, such as the shares-for-debt swap that gave Russia
    control over five Armenian state-run companies, including the Hrazdan
    thermo-electric power station, as compensation for Soviet-era debt.

    Torosian added that his opinion does not reflect the Republican
    Party's view.

    Some analysts view the Eurasian Union as a more mundane phenomenon,
    however. Economist Tatul Manaserian, head of the Alternative economic
    research center, notes that the Union would not be "a new thing,"
    and could introduce competition to help Armenia "fight against the
    import monopoly" which, he argues, poses the greater threat to the
    country's economy.

    Ultimately, predicted independent political analyst Yervand Bozoian,
    the proposed Eurasian Union "will get into a deadlock before it
    reaches us." For now, he said, it looks like "nothing more than just
    an election campaign promise [by Putin] to rebuild the Soviet Union."

    Editor's note: Gayane Abrahamyan is a reporter for ArmeniaNow.com
    in Yerevan.

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