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Kocharyan Front Is Not Established

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  • Kocharyan Front Is Not Established

    KOCHARYAN FRONT IS NOT ESTABLISHED
    HAKOB BADALYAN

    Story from Lragir.am News:
    http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments24001.html
    Published: 18:05:56 - 31/10/2011

    Gagik Tsarukyan's latest interview where he actually reiterates his
    loyalty to the agreements reached upon signing the memorandum on
    February 17, the question occurs whether Tsarukyan's comment means
    that Kocharyan gives up on his intention to participate in the
    parliamentary election.

    Certainly, Kocharyan did not publicly announce about such an
    intention. Vardan Oskanyan, the ex-foreign minister had suggested
    on his involvement, and afterwards Robert Kocharyan mentioned in an
    interview that three things will make him consider return: economic
    plight, public demands, ability for fundamental change.

    Kocharyan's cautiousness is understood. He will not announce about
    his return unless he is sure that nothing will hinder him, and he will
    not stop halfway. The current conditions do not allow for optimism but
    it does not mean that Kocharyan will not participate in the upcoming
    parliamentary elections, at least directly.

    The point is that the structure of the Armenian government is such
    that it can be demolished through revolution or you must enter it from
    inside. It is difficult to imagine Kocharyan and revolution together.

    And to enter from inside, it is enough for Kocharyan to be interested
    in the upcoming parliamentary election and try to boost his influence
    on the government to reserve a chance to return.

    In this sense, despite the absence of a direct and open statement,
    Kocharyan would be one of the main subjects of the parliamentary
    election. In the meantime, most government figures consider Gagik
    Tsarukyan as one of the main partners of that subject, which was
    confirmed by Tsarukyan's statement that Kocharyan has the political
    and moral right to return.

    In this sense, the question occurs whether Gagik Tsarukyan's loyalty
    to the coalition memorandum means that Kocharyan has given up his
    political plans causing Tsarukyan not to oppose Serzh Sargsyan
    because without Kocharyan's support this opposition may end up with
    bad consequences.

    However, would Tsarukyan be able to implement his political plans
    independently from Kocharyan's plans? In other words, would it be
    possible for Kocharyan to rely on Tsarukyan rather than vice versa?

    Perhaps Tsarukyan made this statement because Kocharyan slowed down
    or Kocharyan slowed down because Tsarukyan reiterated his commitment
    to the coalition agreement. In other words, Tsarukyan admitted Serzh
    Sargsyan's priority because Kocharyan decided to stop halfway but
    because Kocharyan had to stop the process because Tsarukyan chose
    Serzh Sargsyan's priority.

    By the way, the response of the ARF Dashnaktsutyun is notable which
    is also perceived as an indirect but possible political support for
    Robert Kocharyan. The ARF Dashnaktsutyun is dissatisfied with the
    memorandum on coalition, noting that the society rejects it. I wonder
    if the ARF Dashnaktsutyun had considered the society's attitude to
    the coalition when they joined the coalition.

    In reality, there is an element of disappointment in ARF-D with the
    Bargavach Hayastan Party. Apparently, the ARF-D expected that the
    Bargavach Hayastan would continue to oppose to the Republican Party and
    thereby form the "joint front for Kocharyan's return". That would boost
    the political weight of the ARF-D. However, Bargavach Hayastan thwarted
    these plans and deprived Kocharyan of the prospect of promoting his
    plans, thereby striking the prospect of the political factor of the
    ARF Dashnaktsutyun because without the Bargavach Hayastan Party,
    the so-called Kocharyan front would be insecure and unviable. And if
    the ARF-D is not in Kocharyan's front, it will appear in a marginal
    state, trying to address the issue of getting the minimum 5% of votes
    required for appearing in parliament.

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