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ANKARA: Zero Neighbors Without Problems

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  • ANKARA: Zero Neighbors Without Problems

    ZERO NEIGHBORS WITHOUT PROBLEMS
    by JOOST LAGENDIJK

    Today's Zaman
    Nov 1 2011
    Turkey

    Most analysts of Turkey's foreign policy during the last couple of
    years will never say so aloud. They are either too polite or make the
    calculation that making fun of Ankara's recent global activism will
    not go down well with the Justice and Development Party (AK Party)
    leadership, with whom they will have to work for the foreseeable
    future. But in private or behind the scenes, they make jokes about
    the so-called "zero problems with neighbors" policy and the person
    who came up with the concept, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

    The phrase most often used ridicules the concept of "zero problems"
    and states that, instead of having less problems with its neighbors,
    Turkey is faced with a growing number of highly problematic situations
    along its borders. Davutoglu's tireless efforts to practice his own
    ideas have not created zero problems with neighbors but zero neighbors
    without problems. The list of proof is discouragingly long.

    Accession negotiations with the EU are stalled and relations with
    Cyprus are still very bad. Efforts to improve the relations with
    Armenia have failed and have led to suspicion and bad feelings
    among the "brothers" in Baku. Until recently the theocrats in
    Tehran were quite happy with Turkey's support in their dispute with
    the international community on Iran's nuclear program. But after
    Turkey agreed to host US radars as part of a new NATO missile defense
    shield and turned against Iran's most important regional ally, Syria,
    bitter accusations by senior Iranian officials have been leveled at
    the Turkish government. Add to that inventory the harsh rhetoric
    and broken diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel and the
    remarkable change of policy towards the regime in Damascus, turning
    Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from friend to foe, and it is not
    difficult to see why many cynical pundits come to the conclusion
    that the net result of Davutoglu's numerous and energetic activities
    is negative. Despite good intentions and an impressive intellectual
    foundation, the former academic has not managed to create a ring of
    friends around Turkey.

    This week the German Marshall Fund (GMF) published an interesting
    report on the implications of the Arab Spring for Turkish foreign
    policy. One of the authors, Nathalie Tocci, Italy's most knowledgeable
    Turkey expert, is careful in her criticism of Ankara's actions abroad
    but nevertheless her analysis must be painful for many at the Foreign
    Ministry. For good reason she makes a difference between the short-term
    effects of the Arab Spring and the medium and long-term opportunities
    that the changes in the Middle East may present to Turkey. According to
    Tocci, the uprisings in Egypt, Libya and Syria have revealed a number
    of inconsistencies in Turkish foreign policy and have brought to the
    forefront the "inherent tension between the normative and realpolitik
    dimensions" of Davutoglu's strategy. In Egypt, Turkey was on the side
    of democracy from the start, largely because there has always been
    an implicit rivalry between the two countries and, at the same time,
    a lack of strong economic ties. In Libya, $15 billion in investment
    and 25,000 Turkish citizens made Turkey much more cautious. In Syria,
    Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan first had to experience
    his close to zero influence on Syrian dictator Assad before Turkey
    was willing to abandon its wait-and-see approach.

    The good thing about the GMF report is that it does not only highlight
    the contradictions and limits of Turkish foreign policy. Several
    contributors make the point that Turkey has a huge potential to play
    a dominant role in positively influencing the eventual outcome of the
    Arab revolutions. In order to do that, the authors suggest structured
    cooperation between Turkey and two other interested parties in the
    region, the EU and the US. That will definitively not be easy, they
    admit, but it should at least be tried seriously.

    As for all global players, the big challenge for Turkish foreign
    policy is to find the right balance between high principles and smart
    concepts on the one hand and effective interventions and practical
    proposals on the other. Davutoglu has to prove the cynics wrong who
    think that his theories do not work in the real world. One way of
    doing so is to admit that there are still plenty of problems with
    neighbors and that Turkey is willing to work with every constructive
    partner to solve them. Better forget about zero problems in this part
    of the world. Be happy when you end up with less.

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