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Hoeve Halbach: "Irrevocable Withdrawal Of Armenian Military Forces F

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  • Hoeve Halbach: "Irrevocable Withdrawal Of Armenian Military Forces F

    HOEVE HALBACH: "IRREVOCABLE WITHDRAWAL OF ARMENIAN MILITARY FORCES FROM THE TERRITORY AROUND NAGORNO-KARABALH IS NECESSARY"

    Vestnik Kavkaza
    http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/20433.html
    Nov 29 2011
    Russia

    German expert on the Caucasus from the Berlin 'Science and Politics"
    Foundation, Professor Hoeve Halbach, shared his view of the ongoing
    processes in the South and North Caucasus with a VK correspondent. The
    third part of the interview touches upon the situation in Armenia
    and the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    - Mr. Halbach, how can you comment on the series of resignations of
    top officials in Armenia? What are the chances of Serge Sargsyan in
    the next election race?

    - I haven't yet formed a clear picture of the developments which are
    taking place in the internal political scene of Armenia. I think we
    should wait for the elections. I don't think a change of power will
    necessarily take place, however, it is possible. The former president
    Levon Ter-Petrosyan is an outstanding opposition figure. Speculation
    on the return of Robert Kocheryan to political life at the side of
    the current president Sargsyan is also interesting. At the moment
    the internal political situation in Armenia is not clear.

    - Some people in Azerbaijan think that in the case of Ter-Petrosyan's
    rise to power a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
    will be possible...

    - Yes, this opinion is understandable, as in the past Ter-Petrosyan
    was overthrown because of his readiness to compromise in the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. As a result, in 1988 the Karabakh group
    came to office, headed by Robert Kocheryan. That is why a return to
    the presidential position by Ter-Petrosyan could have consequences in
    the sphere of settlement of the conflict. But I don't think he will
    risk and dare a direct compromise. I think a big problem in this
    conflict is the threats of power elites that conflicting political
    forces will use a readiness for compromise for their own internal
    political interests. This aspect plays a significant role. However,
    space for compromise is rather limited.

    - Considering the absolutely opposite positions of the conflict
    parties, what kind of compromise can there be at all?

    - How does the road map of the conflict settlement look? Does it
    presuppose a package or phased variants of a settlement, what steps
    should be taken? One of the crucial moments is the irrevocable
    withdrawal of Armenian military forces from the territory around
    Nagorno-Karabakh before what should be done with Nagorny Karabakh can
    be understood. The territories around Nagorno-Karabakh are bigger
    than Nagorno-Karabakh itself. Most Azerbaijani refugees came from
    these nearby territories. I think Azerbaijan should focus on these
    territories first of all and establish conditions for withdrawal
    of the Armenian army from these regions. But it won't achieve this
    goal through bellicose oratory. The erritories which are regarded by
    Azerbaijan as occupied are a security belt for Armenia.

    Interview by Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK.

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