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  • Lebanon and its message

    Asia Times Online, Hong Kong
    May 19 2005

    Lebanon and its message
    By Rabbi Moshe Reiss

    Lebanon's elections are scheduled to start on May 29, and will
    continue for the following three Sundays.

    Lebanon is estimated to be 95% Arab. In the last election, in 2000,
    50% of the electorate voted for Christian parties. How much of the
    population is Muslim and how much is Christian is unknown. Estimates
    range from slightly more Christians than Muslims, to 2-1 favoring
    Muslims. The 450,000 Palestinians in Lebanon are not counted as they
    have no rights and are forbidden to hold citizenship. The last census
    was taken in 1932.

    Lebanese are believed to originate from the ancient Phoenicians. King
    Solomon, in building the Jewish Temple in Jerusalem approximately
    3,000 years ago, purchased timber from Lebanon, according to the
    Bible (1 Kings 5:30-31).

    Later came the Armenians, who spoke Aramaic, the language of Jesus.
    The Armenians claim to be the first Gentile group to convert as a
    result of Constantine's conversion in the fourth century; they are
    still called the Malkites. The word is Semitic and its Hebrew root is
    the word for king. The Hebrew name for Lebanon is Laban, which also
    means "white". Laban was Jacob's father-in-law for both of his wives
    (Leah and Rachel), and he is at times called the Armenian.

    More than twice as many Lebanese (7 million) are estimated to live in
    Brazil as live in Lebanon; the number living in the United States (3
    million) is approximately equal to the number living in Lebanon. Most
    of those living abroad are considered to be exiled Christians. More
    than 50% of the schools in Lebanon use French as the vernacular
    language. The codes of the legal system were originally written in
    French and only translated into Arabic in 1983; most lawyers in court
    still cite the original French version of the law. Inter-confessional
    marriages are not sanctioned by the clerics and take place in Cyprus,
    after which they are recognized by the government. The same is true
    in Israel.

    National holidays include Christian and Islamic New Year's Day,
    Eastern Christian and Western Christian Good Friday, Easter and
    Christmas, Ascension Day, All Saints Day, St Marouns Day, Eid
    al-Fiter (end of Ramadan), Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice),
    Ashoura Day, Eid al-Mawled (the Prophet's Birthday), Al-Isra'
    Wal-Mi'raj, and, of course, Independence Day.

    Perhaps the most-known Arab literary figure, Gibran Khalil Gibran,
    author of The Prophet, was Lebanese.

    There are 18 religious and confessional communities in Lebanon. Each
    group identifies itself first by its ethnic identity and second as
    Lebanese. Sectarianism is the basis of the Lebanese state. Despite
    this, Lebanon is the only Arab state that has had a democratic
    history, when Syria has not interfered. The president and prime
    minister have changed by election, not by the bullet. Religious
    freedom is constitutionally guaranteed. The president is
    constitutionally a Maronite Christian, the premier a Sunni, the
    Speaker of the House a Shi'ite and the deputy Speaker a Druze. The
    current parliament of 128 members is composed of members from the
    following groups: 34 Maronite Christians, 27 Sunnis, 27 Shi'ite (11
    Hezbollah, four Amal, an unknown number associated with the Lebanese
    Ayatollah Mohammad Fadlallah), 14 Greek Orthodox, eight Catholic
    Orthodox, eight Druze, and the remaining 10 from several smaller
    parties.

    So what will the composition of the parliament be after the May 29
    elections? (The French will vote on the European Union constitution
    that same day.) The assassination of former premier Rafik Hariri has
    drastically changed political dynamics in Lebanon. Lebanon was once
    treated by Syria as its surrogate, but its armed forces now have
    left. What powers Syria still has are unclear.

    Hezbollah, Lebanon's most important political faction, demonstrated
    its power in March by having half a million persons march in Martyrs'
    Square, the center of Beirut (Hezbollah's territory is southern
    Beirut). At the demonstrations, Hezbollah flew the Lebanese national
    flag, not its own flag; that was presumably very significant as to
    its intentions (see Hezbollah enters the fray, March 10, 2005). The
    next week the opposition held its own large demonstration. Young
    people were the strength of this and continuing protests; they
    represent 20% of the population and have never voted before. Will
    they follow their fathers in the upcoming elections?

    Hezbollah has improved its electoral power in municipal elections in
    the past two years. Will it receive more parliamentary seats than it
    has at present? If so, at whose expense? Perhaps Amal's or other
    Shi'ite parties, though not likely other communal groups.

    The Lebanese opposition to Syria expects to win the elections. Who is
    this opposition to the former pro-Syrian community: the Maronite
    Christians, the Greek and Catholic Christians and the Sunnis. Will
    the Christian groups combine with the Sunnis to form the next
    coalition government?

    The election law was allegedly written by pro-Syrian legislators and
    approved by pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud. The League of Maronite
    Christian Bishops has already complained that the election is rigged,
    before it has even begun. Saad Hariri, son of the assassinated former
    premier, with no political experience, has announced he will form his
    own political party.

    General Michel Aoun, a Maronite leader and former prime minister,
    left Lebanon 15 years ago and lived in exile in France. He was
    opposed to the Syrian occupation and returned on May 7 (see Michel
    Aoun comes home to roost, May 13). His old friends and enemies are
    still in Lebanon. He has met with Hezbollah leaders and is already
    being talked about as the next president. His friends will no doubt
    soon compare him to Charles de Gaulle, his enemies to Napoleon.

    'Not a nation, but a message'
    A key to understanding Lebanon is the civil war that began on April
    13, 1975, between the Lebanese Christians and the Lebanese Muslims
    allied with the Palestinians. The Israeli invasion in 1982 (a mistake
    in this writer's opinion) was the result of this civil war. Many
    Lebanese argue that the 15-year war was caused by the Palestinians,
    particularly their leader Yassar Arafat, who had been expelled by the
    Jordanians for attempting to cause a civil war there. The war began
    to end (despite continuing for another eight years) when Arafat was
    expelled from Lebanon in 1982. None of Lebanon's confessional groups
    favors giving rights to the Palestinian refugees. Permanent
    settlement by the Palestinians is forbidden by the Lebanese
    constitution. The Palestinians are known to be militarized within
    their refugee camps. They are also surrounded by Lebanese armed
    forces. They are considered by nationalist Lebanese as "foreign
    forces" under UN Resolution 1599 and are therefore required to disarm
    and/or leave Lebanon. Recently, President Lahoud stated, "All the
    Lebanese people agree that the permanent settlement of the
    Palestinian refugees is a time bomb."

    The Taif Accord of 1989, signed by the various communal
    representatives, can be considered the end of the war. But Lebanon
    remains in a precarious position. The late pope John Paul II said,
    Lebanon was "not a nation, but a message" of Christian-Muslim
    coexistence, one that obviously Europe could learn from. Maronite
    intellectual Georges Naccache said in French: "Two negations do not
    make a nation."

    The United Nations has demanded that Hezbollah (which has been called
    a state within a state) disarm. Hezbollah has been supported by money
    and arms from Islamic Iran and secular Syria for many years. The
    Bekaa Valley training camps run by Iran have trained Hezbollah and
    other terrorists for jihadi operations. Since April of this year
    Hezbollah has been sending air drones over Israeli territory. The
    questions is, how will Israel react?

    Maronite leader and Lebanese defense minister, Abdel-Rahim Morad, has
    said the Lebanese army cannot fill the vacuum the Syrian soldiers
    have left behind. He was suggesting that Hezbollah could fill that
    space. He did not say so explicitly, but it is clear from his remarks
    that the most effective Lebanese military force is that of Hezbollah.
    He did not mention who would fill the vacuum on the southern border
    with Israel if Hezbollah is disarmed. But the Druze leader Walid
    Jumblatt said disarming Hezbollah is not in the cards - though he had
    said two weeks earlier that Hezbollah ought to be disarmed. Even the
    EU has designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.

    What changed Jumblatt's mind? One story is that the Shi'ite
    demonstrators caricatured him in signs as an "Orthodox Rabbi"; he
    felt after Hariri's death, his end was coming. His father, Kamal, was
    murdered after opposing Syrian forces in Lebanon. On the other hand,
    a Lebanese Christian opposition figure stated, "Jumblatt's head has
    gotten swollen. Everyone is courting him. He was in Saudi Arabia,
    where he apparently got money, he is meeting with world figures, he
    was in Egypt and met with [President Hosni] Mubarak. Suddenly this
    man has become, in his own eyes, an omnipotent leader - according to
    his will, the opposition will either exist or collapse. Suddenly he
    is [Hezbollah chief] Hassan Nasrallah's friend." Both comments are
    from biased parties.

    On March 16, Nasrallah said, "Disarming the resistance will be up for
    discussion, and we expect our partners [the opposition] to offer us
    alternatives to defend the country and people." From whom? Nasrallah
    has recently threatened the United States. The question had been
    asked in Arabic newspapers whether Nasrallah has "lost his mind"
    (Kuwaiti Daily, April).

    Will Hezbollah attempt to control Lebanon politically? Will Nasrallah
    have a surrogate run for Speaker of the parliament? Or alternatively,
    will he use the weapons, including missiles he has from Iran, to
    become the strongman of the country? Could the latter cause another
    civil war?

    Looking at Lebanon's surrogate parent
    One cannot discuss Lebanon without reference to Syria, its "surrogate
    parent"; however the subject has already been discussed to the
    saturation point (see The twists and turns of 'Syria first', March
    25). Syria claims Lebanon is part of Greater Syria. As in Egypt,
    where there is no map that shows a State of Israel in Syria, the
    State of Lebanon is not to be found on maps, just Greater Syria.

    Tripoli, the second-largest city in Lebanon, has long been in
    American history. In 1801 the US attacked Tripoli and had a four-year
    war. For that victory Tripoli stars in the US Marine Hymn adjacent to
    the Halls of Montezuma. The American University of Beirut has long
    been known as the best university in the Middle East.

    President George W Bush has not had a policy toward Syria, other than
    calling it a "rogue state", a home for terrorists, and even accusing
    it of having weapons of mass destruction. There is a Syria
    Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act of 2003,
    which imposes strict sanctions against the Syrian government. And the
    US is now considering imposing sanctions on Syria's financial sector
    under the Patriot Act. Since 1979 Syria has been designated as a
    state sponsor of terrorism by the US. But after 25 years, this
    approach has not had any affect on Syrian behavior or strategic and
    tactical calculations.

    Is Bush now inching toward a policy? Is it "regime change"? (It would
    be easier than "regime change" in Iran, another possible candidate.)
    Whatever the case, the US is likely to continue its demands that
    Syria democratize its government as this dovetails with the Bush
    administration's overall policy of transforming the authoritarian
    states of the Middle East into democracies.

    Meanwhile, the Lebanon-Syria conflict has managed to reconcile the
    dispute between the US and France, which have had problems since
    shortly after September 11, 2001. Both countries have agreed to pass
    UN resolution 1599 demanding Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon and
    Hezbollah's disarmament.

    Another relevant party in any discussion of Lebanon and its surrogate
    parent, Syria, is Israel. According to Flynt Leverett, a former US
    diplomat and author of a recent book, Inheriting Syria, Washington
    told Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel not to agree to open a
    negotiating front with Syria over the future status of the Golan
    Heights. Assad is willing - perhaps even anxious, according to
    Leverett - to open negotiations on that issue. The US is in no mood
    to offer any opportunity to Syria whereby it would gain any momentum
    stemming from a potential breakthrough on the Golan Heights, which
    has been under Israeli occupation since 1967.

    Israel's policy was once invasion. That failed. The connection
    between the Israelis and the Christian Lebanese who cooperated in
    that war is that both are considered outlaws in the Muslim heartland.


    Israel could defuse Hezbollah by returning a small enclave known as
    Sheba Farms (200 square kilometers), which even the not-Israeli
    friendly UN agrees belongs to Syria and therefore is part of a
    Syria-Israel peace process (if one existed). However, Hezbollah
    claims Sheba Farms belongs to Lebanon; it is not clear what the
    Lebanese government's position is. Hezbollah claims it retains its
    arms to free this farmland. Given the Gaza disengagement, Israel is
    highly unlikely to give up Sheba Farms despite its obvious advantage.


    If Hezbollah decides to use its military power to suicide bomb
    Israelis or attack them with rockets or even missiles that they have
    from Iran, will Israel attack from the air and bomb Beirut or an
    electric grid or water dam? If the anti-Syrian opposition in Lebanon
    take control of a new government, can they negotiate with Israel?
    What would Syria do? Israel signed a peace treaty with Lebanon in
    1983 during the civil war and Israeli occupation; Syria canceled it.

    Will Syrian President Bashar Assad still have the power after the
    election to control certain red-line events in Lebanon? Yes.

    Rabbi Moshe Reiss is a graduate of Oxford University and was
    assistant rabbi at Yale University. He was the first rabbi invited to
    teach in the Department of Theology at the Catholic University of
    Leuven, Belgium (founded 1425), and has lectured in various
    countries. He has posted three books on his website on Judaism,
    Christianity and Islam. His book on Judaism is being published by
    sections in the Jewish Bible Quarterly. He now lives in Israel.
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