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ISTANBUL: Will the spring mood in Turkish-American relations last in

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  • ISTANBUL: Will the spring mood in Turkish-American relations last in

    Today's Zaman, Turkey
    Jan 1 2012


    Will the spring mood in Turkish-American relations last in 2012?

    0 11 January 2012 / ALI H. ASLAN, WASHINGTON

    The answer to this question depends on whether the conditions that
    created the present mood change this year.
    Of course, this includes the strong personal relationship between
    Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an and US President Barack Obama. The
    two leaders work diligently to keep relations on track. ErdoÄ?an is one
    of the leaders with whom the American president communicates most
    frequently. For Obama, who wants to reconcile with the Muslim world
    and take control of the process of change in the Arab world, keeping
    Turkey close is a number one priority; Turkey's influence is visibly
    growing in the region, and getting along with its popular prime
    minister is a primary concern for Washington.

    The advantages of a close relationship with the US president for Prime
    Minister ErdoÄ?an, in both domestic and international politics, cannot
    be ignored. It is to Turkey's advantage that Obama will remain in
    office until January 2013, even if he loses the presidential election
    in November 2012. It is also very likely that the Obama administration
    will avoid any risky moves that would jeopardize victory in the
    election year. As a president who promised to end American armed
    conflicts and fulfilled some of these promises, Obama will refrain
    from new ventures at a time when the economy is not in such good
    shape. This means for Ankara that an American conflict with Iran, a
    scenario that would test US-Turkish relations, is less likely during
    this period of time. In response to efforts from Iran to expand its
    influence in the region, Washington will exhaust all nonviolent
    options. To this end Turkey -- along with Saudi Arabia, as the Sunni
    power that would balance Iran in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon -- will
    remain significant in American strategic calculations.

    The US will be preoccupied with the election for most of 2012. This
    may raise some problems for Turkish-American relations. The Armenian
    and Greek lobbies may pressure politicians to adopt resolutions that
    would upset Turkey including, potentially, legislation pertaining to
    the alleged Armenian genocide. But Turkey's inclusion in the NATO
    missile shield project, its balancing role in Iraq, ability to
    confront the Assad regime in Syria, growing economy and soft power
    will convince the White House that Ankara is an asset for US national
    security and other interests abroad. Despite tensions between Ankara
    with Tel Aviv, the Israeli lobby has not taken a hard line towards
    Congress vis-Ã-vis Turkey. If Turkish-Israeli tensions remain low, as
    they have these final months of 2011, the possibility that the Jewish
    front will become angry with Turkey and take it out on Turkey via the
    US Congress is remote. Turkey's preoccupation with domestic security
    problems that make it impossible to fulfill its obligations within
    NATO, its continued violation of the territorial integrity of Iraq and
    deterioration of relations with the Kurds in northern Iraq will not
    serve American interests. Therefore, cooperation between Turkey and
    the US to combat the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), one of the
    crucial elements of this partnership, will remain.




    From: A. Papazian
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