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Russia's Putin dreams of sweeping Eurasian Union

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  • Russia's Putin dreams of sweeping Eurasian Union

    The Associated Press
    January 3, 2012 Tuesday 08:40 AM GMT


    Russia's Putin dreams of sweeping Eurasian Union

    By PETER LEONARD, Associated Press
    ALMATY, Kazakhstan


    Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has a vision for a Soviet
    Union-lite he hopes will become a new Moscow-led global powerhouse.
    But, his planned Eurasian Union won't be grounded in ideology: This
    time it's about trade.

    The concept of regional economic integration may be losing some of its
    allure in Europe, where a debt crisis is threatening the existence of
    the eurozone. But some countries across the former Soviet Union, still
    struggling economically 20 years after becoming independent, are
    embracing Putin's grand ambition.

    Russia has moved one step toward this goal under an agreement with
    former fellow Soviet republics Belarus and Kazakhstan that as of
    Sunday allows the free movement of goods and capital across their
    common borders.

    As Putin envisions it, the still-hypothetical union will eventually
    stretch from the eastern fringes of Central Europe to the Pacific
    Coast and south to the rugged Pamir Mountains abutting Afghanistan.

    The drive to somehow reform at least a husk of the Soviet Union has
    been around since 1991. The Commonwealth of Independent States, which
    loosely brings together 11 of the original 15 republics, was an early
    attempt that never amounted to much more than a glorified alumni club.

    It was Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev who first raised
    the notion of an Eurasian Union in the early 1990s, but the idea was
    too premature for nations busy forging their own delicate statehoods.

    Putin was president from 2000 to 2008 and intends to regain that
    position in a March election. A wave of protests that began after a
    fraud-tainted parliamentary election in December is posing the first
    serious challenge to Putin's authority, but his hold on power still
    seems secure.

    In anticipation of a new six-year term as president, Putin has made
    forming a Eurasian Union by 2015 a foreign policy priority. He is
    promoting the union as necessary for Russia and its neighbors to
    compete in the modern global economy. His broader goal is to restore
    some of Moscow's economic and political clout across former Soviet
    space and thus strengthen Russia's position in the world.

    If the poorer prospective members are clamoring for Putin's union so
    as to become Moscow's financial beneficiaries, as was the case under
    the Soviet Union, they may be sorely disappointed. Russia has in
    recent years taken a more pragmatic line when extending its largesse
    and that stance is expected to remain largely unchanged.

    "Some years ago, Russia came to the position that assistance to former
    Soviet republics should be monetized," said Ivan Safranchuk, an
    associate professor at the Moscow State Institute of International
    Relations.

    Safranchuk said this meant that Moscow issued lines of credit and then
    sold countries oil, gas, electricity and military hardware at discount
    prices.

    That strategy has brought Russia closer to gaining control over energy
    infrastructure in Ukraine, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan. While giving Moscow
    economic leverage over its former subjects, this approach has
    precluded the exorbitant spending pressure that helped bankrupt the
    Soviet Union.

    The agreement to form a "common economic space" that went into effect
    Jan. 1 gives Russia up to 30 million new customers in Belarus and
    Kazakhstan, while these countries gain greater access to Russia's
    market of more than 140 million people. The risk to Russian
    manufacturers is the relatively lower cost of production in the other
    two countries, which could potentially drive them out of business.

    Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, both economically struggling nations in
    Central Asia, may be the next to join the free trade club.

    Kyrgyzstan's former President Roza Otunbayeva said before stepping
    down in late October that she saw her nation's fate as inevitably
    linked with the Eurasian Union.

    "The natural flow of the work force, services and movement of capital
    is of course all directed to Russia and Kazakhstan," she said.

    Current President Almazbek Atambayev has made it clear he sees the
    fate of Kyrgyzstan, which hosts a U.S. air base that acts as a crucial
    transportation hub for military operations in Afghanistan, as very
    much tied to Russia.

    Neighboring Tajikistan, whose long and porous border with Afghanistan
    keeps many a security analyst awake at night, has proven a more
    recalcitrant partner and was recently embroiled in an unseemly
    diplomatic spat with Russia. But with more than an estimated 1 million
    Tajik migrants currently working in Russia, the lure of a border-free
    future could be too compelling to refuse.

    Other potential members of the Eurasian Union in the Kremlin's sights
    appear more wary about what this means for their sovereignty.

    Ukraine, which has flirted uncertainly with membership, fears it could
    further jeopardize its future economic and political engagement with
    Western Europe. Others, such as Armenia, have proven positively cool
    on the idea, while Georgia under President Mikheil Saakashvili will
    likely always be hostile to anything coming out of Moscow.

    Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, cautioned
    against talking up the prospect of the Eurasian Union as a political
    project.

    "I see no absolutely no wish on behalf of the Kazakhstani leadership
    to give up their sovereignty, and I see the Belarusian people not
    wishing to become part of Russia," he said.

    Still, Russia's neighbors may have reason to fear Kremlin attempts to
    restore political domination.

    Shortly after Putin came to power, the Foreign Ministry spelled out
    Russia's strategic vision in no uncertain terms. The document, which
    dates back to 2000, argues for promoting policies that "best serve the
    interests of Russia as a great power and as one of the most
    influential centers in the modern world."

    The theme was recently reprised in campaign literature for Putin's
    United Russia party, which claimed that the "new union will allow our
    country to become another pole of influence in the modern, multipolar
    world."

    Trenin said that so far the fears of renewed Kremlin domination were
    ungrounded, noting that Kazakhstan and Belarus only increase the reach
    of Russia's markets by one-fifth in terms of population.

    "That's fine, but it doesn't make you a powerhouse," he said.

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