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  • New Challenges to Armenian-Iranian relations

    NEW CHALLENGES TO ARMENIAN-IRANIAN RELATIONS
    By Richard Giragosian

    hetq
    14:59, February 7, 2012

    Richard Giragosian assesses new challenges to Armenia's relationship
    with Iran, as sanctions against Iran are tightened and threats of
    military action mount over the Iranian nuclear programme, but also
    sees an opportunity inherent in this crisis.

    Armeniahas always been a prisoner of its geography, serving
    throughout history as an arena for both competition and cooperation
    for larger regional powers. Since its independence,Armenia's
    geographic vulnerability became only more pronounced, as
    bothAzerbaijanandTurkeyclosed their borders withArmeniain a
    demonstration of "fraternal allegiance" over the Nagorno Karabakh
    conflict.

    Over time, small, landlockedArmeniagenerally adapted to its isolation
    by adopting economic and trade strategies aimed at overcoming the
    constraints of having two of its four land borders sealed.

    Nevertheless, the threat of isolation was never fully addressed,
    andArmenia's borders with bothGeorgiaandIran, as its primary export
    and import route and as the only alternative trade and energy link
    respectively, only grew in strategic significance.

    Concerns and Challenges

    Yet it isArmenia's relationship with its southern borderIranthat
    raises concerns and poses challenges. And as the West imposes ever
    tighter sanctions against Iran and the threat of military action over
    Iran's nuclear programme mounts, so do the challenges to Armenia.

    Only a few months ago, during a late-December 2011 meeting inYerevan,
    Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and his Iranian counterpart, Mahmud
    Ahmadinejad, called for a "diplomatic" solution toIran's nuclear
    standoff with the West. As hosts, the Armenian side was careful to
    placate Ahmadinejad during his one-day visit toYerevan, promising
    expanded "high-level relations" and reiterating a commitment to "good
    relations." Similarly, in a joint statement, the presidents "noted
    the right of all countries, includingArmeniaandIran, to the peaceful
    use of atomic energy," but stressed "the importance of resolvingIran's
    nuclear issue by means of negotiations and in diplomatic ways."

    But as tension between the West andIranhas deepened,Armeniais
    increasingly concerned over renewed consideration of a possible US
    or Israeli military attack targeting Iranian nuclear facilities.

    Discussion of a possible military strike againstIranhas also grown
    withinArmenia, fueled in part by Russian media coverage, leading many
    inArmeniato worry about the country's proximity toIran.

    The Threat of Looming Attack against Iran

    Fears of a looming military attack againstIranhave grown in recent
    weeks, as Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned that there is
    "a wide global understanding thatIranmust be prevented from becoming
    nuclear and no option should be taken off the table." Going even
    further, Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon, who heads the
    strategic affairs ministry and is a former Israeli military commander,
    threatened thatIran's nuclear installations are "vulnerable to military
    strikes," directly contradicting mainstream military skepticism over
    the feasibility of air strikes. In response, however, US Defense
    Secretary Leon Panetta recently downplayed reports suggesting the
    "strong likelihood" that Israel was planning a military strike sometime
    in the coming 2-4 months.

    >From a military perspective, however, any such attack againstIranwould
    most likely fail and may even be counter-productive. Militarily, the
    fact that such an operation would target Iranian nuclear facilities
    that are both widely dispersed throughout the country and deep
    underground raise serious doubts over the success of any air campaign.

    At the same time, even if an air campaign locates and neutralizes most
    of its target list, many experts expect only a temporary setback to
    an already entrenched nuclear programme.

    A military operation would also be largely counter-productive
    politically, for three main reasons. First, it would tend to only
    embolden and even bolster a regime inTehranwhose very legitimacy is
    limited to posing as a perceived victim of Western conspiracies and
    aggression. Secondly, it would further weaken the already vulnerable,
    but still significant portion of pro-American Iranians, and perhaps
    even drive many Iranians to unite behind their government in the face
    of open attack. A third factor is rooted in the likelihood that by
    resorting to a military option, international support for diplomatic
    pressure and sanctions would erode, especially as Russia and China
    would most likely withdraw their support for the Western-designed
    sanctions regime.

    Conforming to Tighter Sanctions

    For Armenia, which has been importing small amounts of Iranian natural
    gas through a pipeline built in 2009, meeting the demands of tighter
    sanctions is also a challenge, especially in light of current bilateral
    energy ties and the roughly $300 million in annual bilateral trade. The
    energy ties include the ongoing construction of a third electrical
    transmission line connecting the Armenian and Iranian power grids
    and the planned construction of two hydroelectric plants on the Arax
    River dividing the Armenian-Iranian border. It would also complicate
    ambitious Iranian plans to build a $2.5 billion, 540-kilometer railway
    connectingIrantoArmenia.

    And sanctions have been steadily tightening and broadening,
    covering both more general areas of trade and economic sectors, as
    well as targeting more specific groups withinIran, ranging from the
    Iranian Central Bank to its Revolutionary Guards. The US Congress,
    for example, follows this track, as the US Senate Banking Committee
    recently approved a new package of proposed sanctions targetingIran's
    Revolutionary Guard Corps and companies involved in joint energy and
    uranium mining ventures withTehran. It would also penalize companies
    and individuals that supplyIranwith weapons that could be used against
    Iranian citizens.

    But this recent trend toward tighter sanction targeting Iranian
    banking and financial services pose even more serious challenges
    forArmenia, by imposing new demands for greater transparency and
    higher scrutiny of Iranian banks currently operating inArmenia. It
    would also trigger new, more serious complications over pending
    and planned bilateral projects in the energy sector, in some ways
    hindering the one sector that is rooted in a shared economic and
    strategic interest betweenArmeniaandIran.

    An Opportunity in Every Crisis

    Despite these obvious challenges forArmenia, at the same time, there
    is a potential opportunity from this crisis, however. In a broader
    strategic context, this opportunity is rooted inArmenia's role as
    a potential "bridge" or "platform" for engagingIran. Reflecting a
    shared sense of isolation and a pronounced perception of hostile
    neighbours,ArmeniaandIranhave been both destined and determined to
    forge a strategically stable relationship, no matter how unnatural
    and contradictory.

    Against this backdrop,ArmeniaisIran's only neighbouring country that
    could serve as a reliable mediator or trusted third-party broker,
    hosting or even facilitating a new round of talks and diplomacy between
    the West andIran. And for its part, affirming the new role of "small
    states" in contributing to greater international security,Armeniaalso
    stands to benefit from offering its own unique insight into how best
    to engageIran. Only in this way, canArmeniatransform itself from being
    less a prisoner of geography to more of a practitioner of geopolitics.

    Richard Giragosian is the director of the Regional Studies
    Center (RSC), an independent think tank in Yerevan, Armenia
    ([email protected])




    From: A. Papazian
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