Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

BAKU: 'Putin's Election To Do Good To Karabakh Settlement'

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • BAKU: 'Putin's Election To Do Good To Karabakh Settlement'

    'PUTIN'S ELECTION TO DO GOOD TO KARABAKH SETTLEMENT'

    News.Az
    Wed 29 February 2012 11:19 GMT | 11:19 Local Time

    News.Az interviews member of the Russian Academy of Political Science,
    doctor of political science, professor Andrei Baranov.

    Do you think that Vladimir Putin will continue the active mediation
    role in Karabakh settlement, which was played by Dmitriy Medvedev,
    in case he returns to presidency in Russia?

    I suppose that the newly elected president of Russia, whoever is
    elected, will continue and intensify the mediation of our country in
    Karabakh settlement. Russia is strategically interested in overcoming
    forced conflicts-the heritage of the USSR collapse, in stability on
    its southern borders, cardinal intensification of economic, transport
    and cultural ties with the South Caucasus countries. The candidate
    to Russian president Vladimir Putin has a stable popularity among
    voters, judging from sociological data. If he wins the elections,
    the personal experience of foreign policy activity gained in the
    2000's will help settle the conflict.

    What role did Dmitriy Medvedev play as a Russian president in terms
    of making achievements in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict?

    As is known, Dmitriy Medvedev organized the tenth meeting of the heads
    of Azerbaijan and Armenia in January of this year. This meeting can
    be rated as moderate positive. In their joint statement of 23 January
    of this year, the heads of all the three states, voiced readiness to
    accelerate the agreement on main principles of the Karabakh conflict.

    All participants to the negotiations admitted that an achievement has
    been made in coordination of these main principles. The mediation of
    Russia, United States and France, as the Minsk Group co-chairs was
    assessed positively.

    All the same, the political scientists and journalists of the
    countries involved in the conflict give skeptical assessments to the
    proposed measures of settlement. The potential of public diplomacy
    in accelerating the fair resolution of the conflict is also assessed
    skeptically in both Azerbaijan and Armenia. In addition, Medvedev's
    term is close to completion and the reduced activeness of diplomatic
    efforts before inauguration of the new head of the Russian state is
    quite natural.

    In a declaration passed by results of the meeting in Sochi, the sides
    fixed common understanding that further progress requires renouncing
    of maximalist positions. Will Azerbaijan and Armenia further be able
    to renounce their maximalist positions to achieve progress in the
    conflict settlement?

    Azerbaijan and Armenia are not ready today to soften their maximalist
    positions to achieve serious breakthrough in the conflict settlement.

    I would risk to suppose that the main motive of the obstinacy of
    the sides is equal: the fear that the opponent will get guaranteed
    advantage for its success: military, diplomatic, demographic and
    others, which means it will apply force in a unilateral way. That
    is the solution depends on the guarantees of the observance of the
    contradictory interests of the parties, while no such guarantees have
    been created.

    It is necessary to have the rational approach the gross weight of the
    Karabakh conflict in the overall geopolitics of the Greater Middle
    East. A number of region, interconnected in the logic of communicating
    vessels appear in the macroregion. Azerbaijan and Armenia are seemingly
    waiting for the outcome of the escalation of military preparations
    against Iran, the result of the November presidential elections in
    the United States. If the United States and NATO establish their
    geopolitical domination in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan and Armenia
    will have to make their positions closer though the example of Cyprus
    shows that even EU membership did not result in the fair resolution
    of the conflict.

    What can be the implications and threats of the new war around Karabakh
    conflict primarily for Russia, which is a direct neighbor?

    Possible escalation of the Karabakh conflict and its return to
    military actions would have sharp negative implications for Russia. In
    particular, migration to Russia, including illegal, from the conflict
    area may rise. The confrontation line would attract mercenaries and
    terrorists, while turning into a 'black hole' of spreading violence.

    The peacekeeping efforts of the OSCE and mediating countries would
    be discredited. Frozen secessionist conflicts in the post-Soviet
    space would be reanimated under the influence of the Karabakh 'case',
    probably in Transdniestria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea, western
    part of Macedonia and Northern Kosovo.

    Thus, the multipartite negotiation process with unbiased international
    arbitrage remains the best method of solving the Karabakh conflict.

Working...
X