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PRESIDENT PUTIN'S COLD WAR THINKING WITH AZERBAIJAN
Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/azeem-ibrahim/vladimir-putin-azerbaijan_b_1337267.html
March 14 2012
Azeem Ibrahim.Research Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School's International
Security Program
A triumphant Vladimir Putin, Russian president from 2000 to 2008
before becoming prime minister due to term limits, has just won a
third six-year term with nearly 64 percent of the vote.
Opposition claims that his presidential election victory was unfair
and fraudulent are ignored by Putin. Instead, he criticized the
opposition for failing to offer a constructive program and failing
to become a real political force at the ballot box -- difficult to
do in a country with controlled elections.
Putin's tough remarks indicate he is not going to be influenced by the
massive protests that have revealed public anger over his continuing
12-year rule. He will no doubt appoint Medvedev to be Prime Minister
again in the interests of stability, though his next term of office
may not be as stable as he hopes. Political instability in Russia
has been growing over the years and anti-Kremlin movements have grown
in confidence since the December 2011 parliamentary elections, when
Putin's United Russia Party lost its super-majority in the Duma.
A new growing middle class has emerged from years of relative calm and
anti-Kremlin sentiment has led to a perception of a weaker Putin. At
the same time, the European financial crisis affected Russia's economy
because an estimated 75 percent of foreign investment in Russia comes
from European Union countries. Trade has rebounded lately as demand
for Russia's oil and gas continues and prices for both are at record
highs. Economic uncertainties however, feed into domestic political
problems and Putin will have to find a new balance to weather the
volatility ahead.
Any sign of weakness in the Kremlin is likely to be welcomed by
the United States and Central European countries, particularly when
negotiating the missile defense issue. The emerging states of the
former Soviet Union in particular are always looking for opportunities
to assert their independence from Russia. But the smaller breakaway
territories of the region such as the former Georgian territory of
Abkhazia and the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan are in a more
ambivalent position as they lack resources to exist as independent
nation-states and must rely on Russian patronage. Russia has a
strong military presence in each of the breakaway areas except for
Nagorno-Karabakh which is provided with financial and military aid
through neighboring Armenia.
Russia has shown that it will use its dominant position in the
breakaway areas to control the "parent" states and punish them if
they do something Russia does not like. For example Russia invaded
Georgia in 2008 when Georgia attempted to join NATO. The breakaway
states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia were recognized by Russia who
keeps troops stationed there as a constant threat to Georgia.
Recent elections in South Ossetia and Transdniestria, a separatist
region of Moldava, saw Russia's preferred candidates both losing,
suggesting that Russian influence may be waning. But the need for
Russian funding still guarantees the allegiance of smaller separatist
regions, and while Russia remains a relatively powerful country it
will continue under Putin to assertively oversee the nations in the
former Soviet sphere.
That is why the issue of the Gabala Radar Station in Azerbaijan is
becoming a symbolic yet pivotal actor in the missile defense question
that has preoccupied U.S. and Russian policymakers for some years. The
Gabala Radar Station was built by the Soviet Union in Azerbaijan in
1985 and is now leased and operated by the Russian Aerospace Defense
Forces. It has a range of 6,000 kilometers, covering Iran, Turkey,
India, Iraq and the entire Middle East, and can detect and track the
launch of missiles to enable a defense system to intercept offensive
strikes.
The current lease expires in December 2012, and Moscow wants to extend
the lease for another 25 years. Azerbaijan's response has been to raise
the rent, first from the existing $7 million a year to $15 million,
then to $150 million and again to $300 million.
The standoff is interesting because the Gabala station needs
modernization and the Russians are building a new and more powerful
station in Armavir, in neighboring Armenia which can replace the
Gabala station when its second phase comes online. By increasing the
rent so dramatically, Azerbaijan is asserting its independence from
Russia and its ability to offer the station instead to NATO.
Speculation about the reasons behind Azerbaijan's new assertiveness
range from the absence of progress in talks concerning the status
of Nargorno-Karabakh and the delay in finalizing the Trans-Caspian
pipeline.
If Russia refuses to pay up, then it will lose the Gabala Radar
Station. AZ News online reports that, "Moscow then will not only
lose one of its trump cards in negotiation with Washington on missile
defense, but it will also give the Americans a station that will help
them conduct operations against Iran."
However, the Gabala station may not be such a trump card after all. In
2007, Putin offered the station to the United States if they would
abandon their proposed deployments of missile defense systems in
Poland and Czech Republic. The United States refused and Russia then
had to appease Iran who thought that the Russians were trying to gain
favor with the US at Iran's expense. The Russians explained it away
by saying that the Gabala station was simply a passive surveillance
system, a listening post, and had no anti-missile component. Moscow
continues to this day to insist that Iran is not capable of launching
ballistic missiles and that the United States has an ulterior motive
of wanting to establish a European defense system to protect them
against a possibly belligerent Russia.
The fate of the Gabala station then is highly symbolic of Russia's new
President's attitude toward the former Soviet satellites. Putin's new
Presidency could well be one of heightened tensions as he seeks to
suppress internal dissent by creating external enemies. Georgia and
Chechnya were hostage to his inordinate ambitions, and the tragic
loss of life and the human rights abuses have gained Putin little
but international disrepute. If Azerbaijan is pressured to lower
the rent by an autocratic Russia, then the Gabala station would be a
constant reminder that Azerbaijan is still a client state, and that
the Russians have a right to maintain their last military outpost in
an independent country.
If the United States were to support Azerbaijan, and perhaps reopen
discussions with the Russians about Gabala and remind them of their
earlier offer, perhaps this relic of the Cold War could be taken
over by NATO or even demolished, decommissioned or turned into a
tourist hotel as some in Azerbaijan have suggested. After all, it
is in a particularly beautiful part of the country and photos of the
site show it to be an especially ugly piece of brutal concrete Soviet
architecture. Let us hope a pragmatic President Putin will see it as
technologically outdated and too expensive to continue to maintain.
Like the statues of Stalin, Gabala radar station should go -- along
with Cold War symbols and Cold War thinking.
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is a Research Professor at the US Army War College,
Lecturer at the University of Chicago, Fellow and Member of the Board
of Directors at the Institute of Social Policy and Understanding
and a former Research Scholar at the Kennedy School of Government at
Harvard and World Fellow at Yale. He obtained his PhD from Cambridge
University.
Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/azeem-ibrahim/vladimir-putin-azerbaijan_b_1337267.html
March 14 2012
Azeem Ibrahim.Research Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School's International
Security Program
A triumphant Vladimir Putin, Russian president from 2000 to 2008
before becoming prime minister due to term limits, has just won a
third six-year term with nearly 64 percent of the vote.
Opposition claims that his presidential election victory was unfair
and fraudulent are ignored by Putin. Instead, he criticized the
opposition for failing to offer a constructive program and failing
to become a real political force at the ballot box -- difficult to
do in a country with controlled elections.
Putin's tough remarks indicate he is not going to be influenced by the
massive protests that have revealed public anger over his continuing
12-year rule. He will no doubt appoint Medvedev to be Prime Minister
again in the interests of stability, though his next term of office
may not be as stable as he hopes. Political instability in Russia
has been growing over the years and anti-Kremlin movements have grown
in confidence since the December 2011 parliamentary elections, when
Putin's United Russia Party lost its super-majority in the Duma.
A new growing middle class has emerged from years of relative calm and
anti-Kremlin sentiment has led to a perception of a weaker Putin. At
the same time, the European financial crisis affected Russia's economy
because an estimated 75 percent of foreign investment in Russia comes
from European Union countries. Trade has rebounded lately as demand
for Russia's oil and gas continues and prices for both are at record
highs. Economic uncertainties however, feed into domestic political
problems and Putin will have to find a new balance to weather the
volatility ahead.
Any sign of weakness in the Kremlin is likely to be welcomed by
the United States and Central European countries, particularly when
negotiating the missile defense issue. The emerging states of the
former Soviet Union in particular are always looking for opportunities
to assert their independence from Russia. But the smaller breakaway
territories of the region such as the former Georgian territory of
Abkhazia and the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan are in a more
ambivalent position as they lack resources to exist as independent
nation-states and must rely on Russian patronage. Russia has a
strong military presence in each of the breakaway areas except for
Nagorno-Karabakh which is provided with financial and military aid
through neighboring Armenia.
Russia has shown that it will use its dominant position in the
breakaway areas to control the "parent" states and punish them if
they do something Russia does not like. For example Russia invaded
Georgia in 2008 when Georgia attempted to join NATO. The breakaway
states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia were recognized by Russia who
keeps troops stationed there as a constant threat to Georgia.
Recent elections in South Ossetia and Transdniestria, a separatist
region of Moldava, saw Russia's preferred candidates both losing,
suggesting that Russian influence may be waning. But the need for
Russian funding still guarantees the allegiance of smaller separatist
regions, and while Russia remains a relatively powerful country it
will continue under Putin to assertively oversee the nations in the
former Soviet sphere.
That is why the issue of the Gabala Radar Station in Azerbaijan is
becoming a symbolic yet pivotal actor in the missile defense question
that has preoccupied U.S. and Russian policymakers for some years. The
Gabala Radar Station was built by the Soviet Union in Azerbaijan in
1985 and is now leased and operated by the Russian Aerospace Defense
Forces. It has a range of 6,000 kilometers, covering Iran, Turkey,
India, Iraq and the entire Middle East, and can detect and track the
launch of missiles to enable a defense system to intercept offensive
strikes.
The current lease expires in December 2012, and Moscow wants to extend
the lease for another 25 years. Azerbaijan's response has been to raise
the rent, first from the existing $7 million a year to $15 million,
then to $150 million and again to $300 million.
The standoff is interesting because the Gabala station needs
modernization and the Russians are building a new and more powerful
station in Armavir, in neighboring Armenia which can replace the
Gabala station when its second phase comes online. By increasing the
rent so dramatically, Azerbaijan is asserting its independence from
Russia and its ability to offer the station instead to NATO.
Speculation about the reasons behind Azerbaijan's new assertiveness
range from the absence of progress in talks concerning the status
of Nargorno-Karabakh and the delay in finalizing the Trans-Caspian
pipeline.
If Russia refuses to pay up, then it will lose the Gabala Radar
Station. AZ News online reports that, "Moscow then will not only
lose one of its trump cards in negotiation with Washington on missile
defense, but it will also give the Americans a station that will help
them conduct operations against Iran."
However, the Gabala station may not be such a trump card after all. In
2007, Putin offered the station to the United States if they would
abandon their proposed deployments of missile defense systems in
Poland and Czech Republic. The United States refused and Russia then
had to appease Iran who thought that the Russians were trying to gain
favor with the US at Iran's expense. The Russians explained it away
by saying that the Gabala station was simply a passive surveillance
system, a listening post, and had no anti-missile component. Moscow
continues to this day to insist that Iran is not capable of launching
ballistic missiles and that the United States has an ulterior motive
of wanting to establish a European defense system to protect them
against a possibly belligerent Russia.
The fate of the Gabala station then is highly symbolic of Russia's new
President's attitude toward the former Soviet satellites. Putin's new
Presidency could well be one of heightened tensions as he seeks to
suppress internal dissent by creating external enemies. Georgia and
Chechnya were hostage to his inordinate ambitions, and the tragic
loss of life and the human rights abuses have gained Putin little
but international disrepute. If Azerbaijan is pressured to lower
the rent by an autocratic Russia, then the Gabala station would be a
constant reminder that Azerbaijan is still a client state, and that
the Russians have a right to maintain their last military outpost in
an independent country.
If the United States were to support Azerbaijan, and perhaps reopen
discussions with the Russians about Gabala and remind them of their
earlier offer, perhaps this relic of the Cold War could be taken
over by NATO or even demolished, decommissioned or turned into a
tourist hotel as some in Azerbaijan have suggested. After all, it
is in a particularly beautiful part of the country and photos of the
site show it to be an especially ugly piece of brutal concrete Soviet
architecture. Let us hope a pragmatic President Putin will see it as
technologically outdated and too expensive to continue to maintain.
Like the statues of Stalin, Gabala radar station should go -- along
with Cold War symbols and Cold War thinking.
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is a Research Professor at the US Army War College,
Lecturer at the University of Chicago, Fellow and Member of the Board
of Directors at the Institute of Social Policy and Understanding
and a former Research Scholar at the Kennedy School of Government at
Harvard and World Fellow at Yale. He obtained his PhD from Cambridge
University.