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Color revolutions and greater Europe

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  • Color revolutions and greater Europe

    COLOR REVOLUTIONS AND GREATER EUROPE

    RIA Novosti
    May 31 2005

    MOSCOW (Alexei Arbatov for RIA Novosti) - The West clearly demands
    that Belarus should be freed of what it calls the last dictatorship
    in Europe.

    I am afraid that Russia-West confrontation in this area could end in
    a head-on clash.

    President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko is not former Ukrainian
    leader Leonid Kuchma: He will suppress the slightest sign of protest,
    especially by young people. The West may intervene by providing help to
    the protesters, forcing Lukashenko to seek assistance from Russia, and
    the Kremlin will be hard put to deny it. After the defeat in Ukraine,
    Belarus has become doubly important to it for communications, defense
    and access to the Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad. Belarus is very
    nearly the last ally of Russia in the former Soviet Union.

    I do not think that Russia will send in troops. But there are
    special operations units and internal troops. Moscow may intervene
    if Lukashenko appeals for help and it is clear that his downfall will
    send Belarus in Ukraine's footsteps toward NATO without Russia.

    This will mean NATO will be along the entire Russian border,
    complicating the Kaliningrad situation and putting enormous pressure on
    Vladimir Putin. He will have to think about how to maintain political
    stability. Losing Belarus after Ukraine would be a new, serious blow
    to his authority at home.

    If Belarus falls, or if developments there provoke a Russia-West
    confrontation, the domestic situation in Russia will be affected
    immediately. The country will be unable to develop a market economy
    and democracy if it is involved in a confrontation with the West.

    The West will most probably not intervene in Belarus and the republic
    will remain allied to Russia. In this case, the West will take its
    "revenge" in Ukraine, the Baltic states and Georgia, and try to win
    over Azerbaijan and Armenia. Russia and Belarus will be completely
    surrounded by NATO countries.

    NATO is neither an adversary nor a friend for Russia; it is a partner
    and, although the two sides disagree on some points, they also have
    many areas of interaction. But they will have to forget about it if
    Belarus is hit by a "color revolution."

    If Russia develops relations with the opposition leaders of Belarus in
    good time (and some of them are living overseas), a choice between
    "Belarus with Lukashenko and with Russia" and "Belarus without
    Lukashenko and without Russia" will not figure on the agenda. But
    this would mean skating on very thin ice, because Lukashenko has
    actually outlawed the opposition. To develop contacts with it would
    mean acting against Lukashenko as the incumbent president. This would
    be difficult .

    Revolutions, even such bloodless ones as recent color revolutions in
    former Soviet republics, cannot develop without a breeding ground.
    They need an ineffective and unpopular regime that is not supported
    by the vast majority of the people. For example, Ukraine was almost
    split by the time of its "orange revolution."

    When half of the population does not support the regime, this is
    an alarming sign. It is a dangerous moment when external forces can
    influence the situation. Opinion polls show that the majority of the
    population and the political elite in Russia are more pro-etatist
    than the president. And no liberal revolution can happen here. On the
    contrary, nationalists and the radical Left might take to the streets,
    but not the rightwing forces.

    Besides, we must not forget history: In the 1990s the rightwing
    liberals, who held ranking posts in the Russian power structure,
    if not directly ruled it, failed to carry through the reforms. This
    left people disillusioned. There was nothing of the kind in Ukraine
    or Belarus.

    Russia must decide with whom it will work. In my opinion, it should
    work with the West and above all Greater Europe. Its relations with
    NATO should be promoted to a stage where Russia will not fear the
    accession of its close neighbors to the bloc. In other words, NATO
    should cease to become a hostile organization for Russia, but this
    depends both on NATO and Russia.

    Their relations are crawling rather than moving, largely because
    of Russian ministries, including defense ministry, but also because
    of the West's unclear approach to Russia. The West does not want to
    outline unambiguous and lasting relations for NATO and the EU with
    Russia. Better and deeper relations may be not a goal but a process.
    Yet every process should have a goal, otherwise current policy will
    be reduced to tactical steps that completely overshadow strategy.

    Alexei Arbatov is a non-voting member of the Russian Academy of
    Sciences, and head of the International Security Center at the IMEMO
    Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the RAS

    The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and
    may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
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