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  • Catalysts of conflict in Central Asia

    Catalysts of conflict in Central Asia
    By M K Bhadrakumar

    Asia Times Online, Hong Kong
    June 1 2005

    In the wind-swept, remote Turkmen town of Krasnovodsk on the Caspian
    Sea, on an obscure leafy street, an unpretentious shed stands with a
    plaque announcing the place where the commissar extraordinary for the
    Caucasus of the Bolshevik Party, Stepan Shaumyan, friend and long-time
    comrade of Vladimir Lenin, George Plekhanov and Julius Martov,
    was trapped by British interventionist troops the night before his
    execution in the nearby desert in the early hours of September 20,
    1918, along with 25 other Bolsheviks. The 26 "Baku commissars" had
    a special place in the pantheon of heroes of the Russian revolution.

    The objective of the British expedition, headed by Major General
    Wilfred Malleson of the Military Intelligence branch of the Indian
    Army, was to seize the great oil fields in Baku (Azerbaijan) ahead
    of Enver Pasha's advancing Turkish troops (Army of Islam) or the
    Kaiser's German troops - and to block a Bolshevik consolidation in
    the Caucasus and Central Asia.

    Of course, the "maximalist" agenda was a partition of Russia between
    Germany and Britain - similar to the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916
    between Britain and France dividing the Ottoman territories in the
    Middle East. Leopold Amery (who advised British prime minister Lloyd
    George) proposed that Japan (which was in control of Manchuria and
    part of eastern Siberia) and the United States should also be invited
    to associate themselves in the enterprise of occupying the vast lands
    from the Urals to Siberia.

    Therefore, there was some degree of historical poignancy in the
    ceremony in Baku last week signifying the formal opening of the
    1,700 kilometer, US$3.6 billion Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline
    (BTC) running from the Caspian Sea via Georgia to Turkey's eastern
    Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. The BTC is the first-ever trunk route
    for Caspian oil bypassing Russian territory.

    It is, predictably, an American enterprise. In the fullness of time,
    BTC will have a capacity to transport 1 million barrels of oil per
    day. Considering that the world's daily consumption of oil is soon
    expected to touch 90 million barrels per day, BTC's contribution
    to the oil market at its optimal best five or six years hence may
    appear negligible. BTC's immense geopolitical significance by far
    exceeds its impact on the oil market. With BTC, the geopolitics of
    the Caucasus and Central Asia are shifting to a new level.

    Looking back, the Rose Revolution in Georgia in 2003 had little to
    do with the real world of Georgian politics or the global democracy
    crusade of the George W Bush administration. Eduard Shevardnadze,
    who was overthrown in that revolution, was a democratic hero for the
    Americans. Georgia became the third-largest recipient of American
    aid after Israel and Egypt. But Shevardnadze, who kept up old links
    with Moscow dating back to his 30-year career in the KGB, the Soviet
    state security ministry, had to go as a new leadership was needed
    in Tbilisi that was exclusively, unreservedly oriented to the US.
    Tbilisi could be a caravanserai of the Silk Road leading from China
    as it leaps across to Europe - indeed, terribly important real estate.

    BTC's passage through Georgia had met with popular resistance. It was
    projected that pipeline companies would employ 70,000 Georgians. But
    in the event, not more than 250 people will be hired in Georgia.
    (About 45% of Georgia's population is unemployed.) Whole communities
    were uprooted along the pipeline's route. Georgia will get $50 million
    as an annual transit fee (which is not a small amount for Tbilisi,
    with its budget under $1 billion), but unanswerable questions arise
    regarding damage to the environment, including renowned regions such
    as Borjomi, Kharagauli National Park (abode of the endangered Caucasian
    leopard and some 1,600 unique plant species) or the unstable Caucasian
    mountains perennially vulnerable to landslides. The pipeline makes
    1,500 river crossings.

    The saga leaps out of Joseph Conrad's Heart of Darkness. The US
    has so far spent $64 million to train Georgians in "anti-terrorism"
    tactics for safeguarding the pipeline and has earmarked another $100
    million for training and equipping a Caspian Guard that will protect
    American oil facilities and key assets. This despite the question
    marks about BTC's economic viability: Azeri oil wells are depleting
    and Kazakhstan is yet to commit its oil for BTC.

    Why should the US go to this trouble? Clearly, oil and gas do
    not provide a complete answer. US experts estimate that proven
    recoverable oil resources in the Caspian Sea work out to anywhere
    between 10 billion to 32 billion barrels with possible reserves up
    to 233 billion barrels. All the oil and gas in the Caspian Sea put
    together might account for only 4% of world supplies.

    So, what is the brouhaha about BTC? It is now becoming clear that
    the US is keenly seeking three military-cum-air bases in Azerbaijan
    (Kurdamir, Nasosnaya and Guyullah). That was the mission undertaken
    by US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld on his low-key visit
    to Baku on April 12. All eyes are on Baku. Moscow and Tehran are
    watching: would Baku enter into a Faustian deal with Washington? Of
    course, the phenomenon of "Velvet Revolution" is a real-time asset
    to US regional diplomacy. But what complicates the equation is that
    there is a three-way split in the Azeri polity - the Aliyev regime,
    a secular opposition and a steadily expanding Islamist opposition. A
    "Velvet Revolution" in Baku may prove to be indecisive, or worse still,
    it may boomerang, like in Kyrgyzstan.

    Tehran apprehends that any US bases in Azerbaijan would imply an
    American arc of encirclement of Iran. Iran negotiated a defense
    agreement with Azerbaijan in April so that neither side would allow
    its territory to be used against the other. Tehran has proposed a
    convention for building confidence among Caspian littoral states
    as a step toward collective security of the region and preventing
    a foreign military presence altogether. Russia and Kazakhstan favor
    the idea. Iran has since shown interest in forming a "rapid reaction
    force" with Russia in the Caspian. But as long as differences
    persist among littoral states regarding the legal status of the
    Caspian Sea, collective security remains a difficult idea, while
    potentials for conflict arise, which, in turn, become a pretext for
    American involvement.

    Russian military analysts have warned that Washington aims at creating
    a US-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey alliance in the region and hopes to
    rope in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan as well - and that
    radars installed in any American bases in Azerbaijan or Georgia could
    cover Russia's industrial regions in the south of the Urals, which
    play a vital role in Russia's overall defenses. Russian President
    Vladimir Putin chose the eve of BTC's opening to convey that "I do
    not want troops of third countries to be deployed in Georgia after
    our withdrawal. This would threaten our security and the Georgian
    partners should understand it ... Nothing requires the immediate or
    rapid withdrawal of our troops. The Russian side believes that the
    pressure from the Georgian side is unsubstantiated."

    The point is Caucasus is a region of "frozen conflicts" -
    Georgia-Ossetia; Ossetia-Ingush; Georgia-Abkhazia; Chechnya; the
    Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict; ethnic conflicts involving migrant
    Armenian communities in Kuban and Stavropol territories; divided
    nationalities of Lezghinians, Ossetians and Avars; persecuted
    Meskhetian Turks; Armenia-Turkey, and so on. It takes no effort to
    stir up the pot. Moreover, Russia itself is a Caucasian state as 10
    of its federal regions are located in North Caucasus. The territory
    of North Caucasus is actually bigger than Georgia, Azerbaijan and
    Armenia put together.

    Suffice it to say that any US military bases along the peripheries
    of Russia's North Caucasus regions would hold profound implications
    for Russia's security. (Interestingly, the pro-Chechen lobby group
    in Washington, the American Committee for Peace in Chechnya, includes
    such luminaries of neo-conservatism as Richard Perle, Elliot Abrams,
    Kenneth Adelman, Midge Decter, Frank Gafney, Bruce Jackson, Michael
    Ledeen and James Woolsey.)

    Furthermore, the American move to secure bases in Azerbaijan
    coincides with the renewed efforts lately by Moscow, Tehran and Baku
    to collaborate on a North-South transportation corridor linking Russia
    and Iran via Azerbaijan that could provide Russia access to the Gulf,
    Middle East and South Asia. American policies throughout the 20th
    century worked hard to deny Russia such access. (The Anglo-Russian
    Entente of 1907 had much the same thrust - that imperial Russia would
    stay off Persia and "the frontiers of Afghanistan and Balochistan".)

    It comes as no wonder, therefore, that the doyen of Russian
    orientalists (and former prime minister), Yevgeni Primakov said last
    week, "Russia seeks stronger ties with its Chinese neighbor ...
    Russia-China rapprochement is particularly essential in view of
    some negative phenomena and processes in international affairs. Such
    processes include the US's stated course toward 'exporting' democracy
    to countries it deems it is lacking. Washington's plans to support
    some Islamic movements are no less alarming. The US's contacts with
    'Muslim brothers' seeking to change power by unconstitutional methods
    .. aggravate the situation in some countries close to the Russian.
    and Chinese borders. Therefore, consultations between Russia and
    China and a common position in favor of stable regional and global
    situation are becoming more and more important."

    The struggle in the Caucasus and Central Asia is quintessentially a
    resumption of the struggle 90 years ago in which the Baku commissars
    laid down their lives. With the consolidation of the Russian revolution
    by the early 1920s, with the deepening economic crisis in Europe in
    the 1920s and the phenomenal rise of fascism, priorities had changed
    and the struggle with Russia had petered off. The "foreign devils"
    packed their bags and left inner Asia. Then came the world war, the
    Soviet Union's emergence as a superpower, the revolution in China
    and the 50-year Cold War.

    With the dismemberment of the Soviet state, and the weakening of
    Russia, the struggle in inner Asia is resuming. The BTC's opening
    is a defining moment. At a minimum, the struggle is over control
    of the Caucasus and Central Asia. On the very outside, it can mean
    the breakup of Russia and China. Primakov put it succinctly when
    he identified "China's rapid economic growth and Russia's economic
    consolidation ... [and] accent on the political means of ensuring
    China's territorial integrity" as Moscow's regional priorities.

    The forthcoming foreign ministers meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation
    Organization (SCO) on Friday and Saturday and the summit meeting
    in Astana on July 5-6 will be momentous. Central Asian security has
    deteriorated since SCO leaders last met in Tashkent in June 2004.

    Acting president of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev told the Russian daily
    Kommersant last week that a new military base would be opened in Osh
    in the Ferghana Valley either under the auspices of the Collective
    Security Treaty Organization or SCO in addition to the Russian base
    in Kant. Felix Kulov, Kyrgyz leader in the forefront of the Tulip
    Revolution, added: "There should be a Russian presence in the Osh
    area ... we want to work in concert and Russia should agree to it,
    because it is advantageous to Russia ... Russia is traditionally our
    best friend and one cannot change friends."

    The SCO has a lot to ponder over.

    M K Bhadrakumar is a former Indian career diplomat who has served in
    Islamabad, Kabul, Tashkent and Moscow.
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