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IF NICOLAS SARKOZY LOSES FRENCH PRESIDENCY, IS TURKEY THE WINNER?
The National
April 24, 2012 Tuesday
UAE
Nicolas Sarkozy, the France president, is trailing Francois Hollande,
the socialist candidate after the first round of elections. Mr Sarkozy
is deeply unpopular in Turkey after rejecting Ankara's bid to join
the European Union, and his determination to have parliament in Paris
enact a law that would make it a crime to deny that Turks committed
genocide against Armenians in 1915.
Laurent Cipriani / AP Photo
Thomas Seibert
ISTANBUL // A defeat of Nicolas Sarkozy in the presidential election
in France could boost the European Union application of Turkey,
a rising regional power and the biggest economy of the Middle East,
some analysts say.
On Sunday, Mr Sarkozy, the incumbent president and one of Europe's
most powerful Turkey sceptics, lost the first round of voting to his
socialist challenger Francois Hollande. The two face off in a second
vote on May 6.
The government in Ankara yesterday declined to comment on possible
consequences of the French vote on bilateral or EU relations, with
one diplomat saying it was too early to predict an outcome. But some
Turkish analysts said the vote could have far-reaching consequences.
Turkish-French relations have been in crisis for years because
of Mr Sarkozy's rejection of Ankara's bid to join the EU and his
determination to have parliament in Paris enact a law that would make
it a crime to deny that Turks committed genocide against Armenians
in 1915. That law was declared unconstitutional in February.
The French president's decision to block five of the 34 sections,
so-called chapters, in Ankara's EU membership talks is one of the
reasons Turkey's accession process has stalled.
Mr Sarkozy is profoundly unpopular in Turkey.
The question for Turkey is what sort of changes, if any, a post-Sarkozy
era would bring.
Cengiz Aktar, head of EU studies at Istanbul's Bahcesehir University,
said he expected a better era to begin under Mr Hollande. "A socialist
administration would lift the veto on the five chapters" of Turkey's
EU membership talks now blocked by the Sarkozy government in Brussels,
Mr Aktar said in an interview yesterday. "That will greatly ease the
tense relations."
Mr Aktar noted that French socialists were not adamantly opposed to
Turkey's EU membership application and said Mr Hollande was likely
to unblock the five EU chapters, even before the summer after an
election victory in May. France says it has blocked the five chapters
- economic and monetary policy, agricultural policy, regional policy,
financial and budgetary provisions as well as a chapter on institutions
- because talks about them would give Turkey a perspective of full
EU membership. Mr Sarkozy says he is willing to negotiate closer
ties between Ankara and the EU, under a concept called "privileged
partnership", but does not accept talks that would mean Turkey,
the only Muslim EU candidate, can expect to become a full EU member.
Ioannis N Grigoriadis, a political scientist from Greece who teaches
at Bilkent University in Ankara, also said a government change in
France was likely to have positive effects.
"The Sarkozy presidency has invested a lot in the opposition to
Turkey's membership bid," Mr Grigoriadis said. He said Mr Sarkozy had
made it clear that he was opposed to Turkey's accession and would bring
Turkey's EU accession to a referendum, even if Ankara fulfilled all
the necessary criteria. It's a position France had not taken towards
any other EU candidate.
"I don't think Hollande would repeat all that," Mr Grigoriadis said,
adding he expected an improvement in relations under Mr Hollande,
even though it would be difficult to restore the level of trust the
two countries enjoyed under Jacques Chirac, Mr Sarkozy's predecessor,
in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Mr Grigoriadis stressed that while Turkey was also partly to blame
for the standstill in its EU accession bid, a victory of Mr Hollande
"may herald a new era in Turkish-EU relations". He said that to achieve
a breakthrough, opinion makers in France should differentiate between
the highly emotional question of Muslim immigration to their country
and Turkey's EU negotiations. "They should decouple the immigration
issue from Turkey's candidacy," he said.
Mr Aktar said improved Turkish-French relations would also make it
easier for Turkey to deal with regional crises such as the one in
Syria. "France is definitely a player in Syria, so better relations
would also help in a post-Assad cooperation," Mr Aktar said.
Turkey, a Muslim country with a secular republican system, is a
political and economic powerhouse in the region and regards itself
as a model state for the countries that have shaken off dictatorships
during the Arab Spring.
Last year, Turkish-French tensions flared when France led a campaign
of air strikes against Libya's leader Col Muammar Qaddafi at a time
when Turkish diplomats were trying to negotiate a peaceful settlement
of the crisis. Mr Sarkozy's government made a point of not inviting
Turkey to a meeting discussing foreign intervention in Libya.
Semih Idiz, a foreign policy columnist at the Milliyet newspaper, said
he doubted that things would change dramatically under Mr Hollande.
"It will not automatically get better," Mr Idiz said in an interview.
The socialist politician was "also playing the populist game",
reflecting "a pathological approach towards Turkey by the French
collectively", Mr Idiz said. He noted that Mr Hollande had supported
Mr Sarkozy's draft for the Armenian genocide law, a project vehemently
opposed by Turkey.
Mr Sarkozy's antipathy towards Turkey is legendary.
In one incident in 2009, reported by US diplomats and made public
by the whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks, Mr Sarkozy's advisers told
pilots of the French presidential plane to change course over Paris
so that Mr Sarkozy would not see the Eiffel Tower, which was lit up
in the Turkish national colours in honour of a visit by Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
The National
April 24, 2012 Tuesday
UAE
Nicolas Sarkozy, the France president, is trailing Francois Hollande,
the socialist candidate after the first round of elections. Mr Sarkozy
is deeply unpopular in Turkey after rejecting Ankara's bid to join
the European Union, and his determination to have parliament in Paris
enact a law that would make it a crime to deny that Turks committed
genocide against Armenians in 1915.
Laurent Cipriani / AP Photo
Thomas Seibert
ISTANBUL // A defeat of Nicolas Sarkozy in the presidential election
in France could boost the European Union application of Turkey,
a rising regional power and the biggest economy of the Middle East,
some analysts say.
On Sunday, Mr Sarkozy, the incumbent president and one of Europe's
most powerful Turkey sceptics, lost the first round of voting to his
socialist challenger Francois Hollande. The two face off in a second
vote on May 6.
The government in Ankara yesterday declined to comment on possible
consequences of the French vote on bilateral or EU relations, with
one diplomat saying it was too early to predict an outcome. But some
Turkish analysts said the vote could have far-reaching consequences.
Turkish-French relations have been in crisis for years because
of Mr Sarkozy's rejection of Ankara's bid to join the EU and his
determination to have parliament in Paris enact a law that would make
it a crime to deny that Turks committed genocide against Armenians
in 1915. That law was declared unconstitutional in February.
The French president's decision to block five of the 34 sections,
so-called chapters, in Ankara's EU membership talks is one of the
reasons Turkey's accession process has stalled.
Mr Sarkozy is profoundly unpopular in Turkey.
The question for Turkey is what sort of changes, if any, a post-Sarkozy
era would bring.
Cengiz Aktar, head of EU studies at Istanbul's Bahcesehir University,
said he expected a better era to begin under Mr Hollande. "A socialist
administration would lift the veto on the five chapters" of Turkey's
EU membership talks now blocked by the Sarkozy government in Brussels,
Mr Aktar said in an interview yesterday. "That will greatly ease the
tense relations."
Mr Aktar noted that French socialists were not adamantly opposed to
Turkey's EU membership application and said Mr Hollande was likely
to unblock the five EU chapters, even before the summer after an
election victory in May. France says it has blocked the five chapters
- economic and monetary policy, agricultural policy, regional policy,
financial and budgetary provisions as well as a chapter on institutions
- because talks about them would give Turkey a perspective of full
EU membership. Mr Sarkozy says he is willing to negotiate closer
ties between Ankara and the EU, under a concept called "privileged
partnership", but does not accept talks that would mean Turkey,
the only Muslim EU candidate, can expect to become a full EU member.
Ioannis N Grigoriadis, a political scientist from Greece who teaches
at Bilkent University in Ankara, also said a government change in
France was likely to have positive effects.
"The Sarkozy presidency has invested a lot in the opposition to
Turkey's membership bid," Mr Grigoriadis said. He said Mr Sarkozy had
made it clear that he was opposed to Turkey's accession and would bring
Turkey's EU accession to a referendum, even if Ankara fulfilled all
the necessary criteria. It's a position France had not taken towards
any other EU candidate.
"I don't think Hollande would repeat all that," Mr Grigoriadis said,
adding he expected an improvement in relations under Mr Hollande,
even though it would be difficult to restore the level of trust the
two countries enjoyed under Jacques Chirac, Mr Sarkozy's predecessor,
in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Mr Grigoriadis stressed that while Turkey was also partly to blame
for the standstill in its EU accession bid, a victory of Mr Hollande
"may herald a new era in Turkish-EU relations". He said that to achieve
a breakthrough, opinion makers in France should differentiate between
the highly emotional question of Muslim immigration to their country
and Turkey's EU negotiations. "They should decouple the immigration
issue from Turkey's candidacy," he said.
Mr Aktar said improved Turkish-French relations would also make it
easier for Turkey to deal with regional crises such as the one in
Syria. "France is definitely a player in Syria, so better relations
would also help in a post-Assad cooperation," Mr Aktar said.
Turkey, a Muslim country with a secular republican system, is a
political and economic powerhouse in the region and regards itself
as a model state for the countries that have shaken off dictatorships
during the Arab Spring.
Last year, Turkish-French tensions flared when France led a campaign
of air strikes against Libya's leader Col Muammar Qaddafi at a time
when Turkish diplomats were trying to negotiate a peaceful settlement
of the crisis. Mr Sarkozy's government made a point of not inviting
Turkey to a meeting discussing foreign intervention in Libya.
Semih Idiz, a foreign policy columnist at the Milliyet newspaper, said
he doubted that things would change dramatically under Mr Hollande.
"It will not automatically get better," Mr Idiz said in an interview.
The socialist politician was "also playing the populist game",
reflecting "a pathological approach towards Turkey by the French
collectively", Mr Idiz said. He noted that Mr Hollande had supported
Mr Sarkozy's draft for the Armenian genocide law, a project vehemently
opposed by Turkey.
Mr Sarkozy's antipathy towards Turkey is legendary.
In one incident in 2009, reported by US diplomats and made public
by the whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks, Mr Sarkozy's advisers told
pilots of the French presidential plane to change course over Paris
so that Mr Sarkozy would not see the Eiffel Tower, which was lit up
in the Turkish national colours in honour of a visit by Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress