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The 'Christian Barometer' and the Middle East

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  • The 'Christian Barometer' and the Middle East

    The 'Christian Barometer' and the Middle East
    by Leon Hadar

    The Globalist
    June 1 2005

    Even those who have celebrated the recent election in Iraq are
    concerned that it could give birth to a government dominated by Shi'ite
    fundamentalist parties that have little respect for the rights of
    women and minorities.

    But even those observers worried about the outcome in Iraq take some
    comfort in the prospect that the liberalization of state-controlled
    economies and the adoption of free-market reforms signals positive
    change by Middle Eastern governments.

    That hope is primarily rooted in the East Asian experience, where
    economic liberalization has helped expand the middle class and empower
    its members to press for political reforms.

    But as China's experience demonstrates, there could be a long delay
    between the launching of free-market reforms and the creation of
    democratic institutions in the Middle East.

    Thinking Outside the Box

    N o matter how one approaches the issue, assessing movement toward
    reform in the Middle East by considering just free elections, market
    reforms, or even the adoption of constitutions and bills of rights
    does not provide a full picture. After all, these steps amount mostly
    to political and legal arrangements - and could be swiftly reversed
    by a new government.

    So here is my idea: Why don't we measure progress toward freedom in
    the Middle East focusing on the status of an integral element of the
    region's political and social-demographic environment - its large
    Christian minorities?

    The Christian Litmus Test

    M ost of these people are highly educated and multilingual, and have
    studied and worked in Europe and North America - where they also have
    a large diaspora. The Christians of the Middle East also tend to be
    more secular and liberal than the surrounding Muslim majority.

    To put it differently, common sense - backed by statistical and
    anecdotal evidence - provides you with this surprising but dependable
    rule of thumb.

    As the Middle East becomes more free and prosperous, linked to the West
    and hospitable to minorities and women, the higher the probability
    that the Christians will continue to live in and even return from
    abroad to countries like Lebanon, Egypt, or Syria.

    And vice versa, if the Christians sense that things are getting worse,
    that the Arab countries they live in are losing their commitment
    to political, economic, and religious freedom, they would tend to
    emigrate from the Middle East.

    Improving Accuracy

    C all it the Middle East's "Christian barometer," which provides the
    world with a more accurate measurement of the political temperature
    in the Middle East than even the most sophisticated social scientific
    model.

    Although no precise figures are available, most experts estimate that
    Christians make up between 7 and 10 percent of the total population
    of the Arab world, which translates to between 21 and 30 million
    Christians living there.

    Persecution and Exodus

    S ome of the numerically significant Christian minority groups include
    the Copts of Egypt, the Maronites of Lebanon, the Assyrians of Iraq,
    the Greek Orthodox and diaspora Armenians of Syria, and the tribal
    members of southern Sudan.

    The Maronites have been the leading force in the rise of a Lebanese
    identity, and individual Christians have played an important role in
    the secular Arab nationalist movement and in Arab cultural life.

    But the Copts and the Assyrians have declined into politically
    marginal minorities as the Muslim-dominated government in Khartoum,
    Sudan's capital, has been trying to assimilate the Christian (and
    animist) South.

    At the same time, since the U.S. invasion of Iraq, the condition
    of the more than 1 million Christians in that country - Chaldeans,
    Syrian, Latin, and Armenian Catholics - has deteriorated. Churches
    in Iraq have burned, while scores of Christians have been killed.
    According to press reports, 200,000 Iraqi Christians have left for
    Syria - and perhaps as many have left the region.

    Radicalism on the Rise

    T rue enough, Saddam Hussein tried to suppress the religious identity
    of the Christians as part of the effort to create a secular Iraqi
    identity.

    But now, in the aftermath of the American invasion, the Christians
    sense the rise of radical Islamic tendencies in both the ruling
    Shi'ite majority and the Sunni minority.

    Region-Wide Trends

    S o the Christians in Iraq are trying to leave the country - as
    opposed to taking part in building a new liberal democracy. Joining
    them in emigrating from the Middle East are the Christians in the
    Holy Land. Many Western-educated Palestinian Christian professionals
    had actually returned to the West Bank during the Oslo peace process.


    But after the start of the Second Intifada, and with signs that Islamic
    radicals are strengthening their power, they are moving back to North
    and South America, Europe, and Australia.

    Even in Lebanon, which was established by the French to provide
    autonomy to the Maronites, the number of Christians has been dwindling.

    No census has been conducted among the population in that country, but
    the best guess is that the Maronites constitute around 25 percent,
    including many who hold dual citizenship and spend most of the
    year abroad.

    A Bleak Outlook

    A ll which is only adding to a very depressing picture as the number
    of Christians in the Middle East continues to shrink. The Arab world
    is losing some of its best and brightest who could have played a
    major role in an authentic - not choreographed - reform process in
    the region.

    So pay attention to the "Christian barometer." Only if and when the
    Christians in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, and elsewhere become more
    bullish can we be confident that the region is becoming more open,
    free, pluralistic, and prosperous.
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