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WILL BAKU BE PRESSURED?
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics26484.html
Published: 11:47:53 - 08/06/2012
Russia's ambassador to Armenia Vyacheslav Kovalenko made an important
statement: "It is evident that in order to avoid bloodshed, the
parties to the conflict need to sign an agreement on nonuse of force
and threats of force, which would create a more favorable environment
to resolve the issue through negotiations. This position is supported
by the international community and has no alternative".
Actually, the ambassador has slightly disclosed the essence of the
new approaches, which will be proposed to Armenia and Azerbaijan on
June 17-18 in Paris. Apparently, a new agreement on the nonuse of
force and partial opening of the border will be proposed to be signed.
Sure, it is not clear why Azerbaijan will have to agree with this
option and refuse its only argument - military blackmail. Moreover,
it has been refusing for many years to sign such an agreement and
even to withdraw the snipers.
Several factors may force Baku to make such a step: if the Armenian
party agrees to cede some regions, if the world community exerts huge
pressure on Azerbaijan and Turkey and if home clashes start in Baku.
Perhaps, all the above-mentioned arguments will be used together,
but the question occurs, whether the positions of Russia and the U.S.
match on this issue. Do they want to pressure Baku? Proceeding from
the fact that Russia sold to Armenia rockets and missile defense
systems to Azerbaijan, Washington is going to sell to Azerbaijan some
helicopter technologies, and Israel has already sold to Azerbaijan
armament costing USD 1.5 billion, these countries understand that
Aliyev will hardly have money to buy more weapons. So, he is to be
left alone for some time.
So, it is not ruled out that Mamedyarov will really sign the agreement
on nonuse of force in paris. But the question remains what Armenia
will have to pay instead. Director of International Crisis Group
Caucasus programme has already said Armenia could cede 1-2 regions.
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics26484.html
Published: 11:47:53 - 08/06/2012
Russia's ambassador to Armenia Vyacheslav Kovalenko made an important
statement: "It is evident that in order to avoid bloodshed, the
parties to the conflict need to sign an agreement on nonuse of force
and threats of force, which would create a more favorable environment
to resolve the issue through negotiations. This position is supported
by the international community and has no alternative".
Actually, the ambassador has slightly disclosed the essence of the
new approaches, which will be proposed to Armenia and Azerbaijan on
June 17-18 in Paris. Apparently, a new agreement on the nonuse of
force and partial opening of the border will be proposed to be signed.
Sure, it is not clear why Azerbaijan will have to agree with this
option and refuse its only argument - military blackmail. Moreover,
it has been refusing for many years to sign such an agreement and
even to withdraw the snipers.
Several factors may force Baku to make such a step: if the Armenian
party agrees to cede some regions, if the world community exerts huge
pressure on Azerbaijan and Turkey and if home clashes start in Baku.
Perhaps, all the above-mentioned arguments will be used together,
but the question occurs, whether the positions of Russia and the U.S.
match on this issue. Do they want to pressure Baku? Proceeding from
the fact that Russia sold to Armenia rockets and missile defense
systems to Azerbaijan, Washington is going to sell to Azerbaijan some
helicopter technologies, and Israel has already sold to Azerbaijan
armament costing USD 1.5 billion, these countries understand that
Aliyev will hardly have money to buy more weapons. So, he is to be
left alone for some time.
So, it is not ruled out that Mamedyarov will really sign the agreement
on nonuse of force in paris. But the question remains what Armenia
will have to pay instead. Director of International Crisis Group
Caucasus programme has already said Armenia could cede 1-2 regions.