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Alexander Manasyan: Official Baku is an instrument in the big
geopolitical game of USA
ArmInfo's interview with Head of the Political Research Academy,
correspondent-member of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia
Alexander Manasyan
by Marianna Lazarian
ARMINFO
Saturday, June 16, 13:27
Mr. Manasyan, there seem to be more hidden motives in the Azerbaijani
subversive actions on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border than just desire
of Aliyev's regime to destabilize the situation around Karabakh
conflict...
The last events on the Armenian-Azeri border can be interpreted as
Azerbaijan's message to the world community and the OSCE Minsk Group
that it will not accept political or legal solutions to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and wants the problem to be solved by means
of war. That's exactly why the Azeris did it during the visit of the
US Secretary of State to the region. The second possibility is that it
was not Baku's initiative. It may have been the initiative of the
United States, which is deliberately escalating the situation in the
region for neutralizing Iran. The geo-political plans of the United
States the role of Iran is not subject to drastic changes, while
Azerbaijan is supposed to play the role of an instrument in this game.
May this big game lead to another aggression by Azerbaijan against the
Armenian people?
Even in case of the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, no blitzkrieg
is expected, actually, not only because of the geographical location
of Armenia but also because of placement of the world forces and
interests in our region. It will be very hard for Azerbaijani tanks
to run Armenian mountain paths. So this weapon will not act. As for
the air attack, Armenia is protected with rather strong air defense
equipment. At present I think that Azerbaijan will not dare to attack
Armenia. It is very much possible that by such actions Baku is trying
to impose pressure both upon the world community and domestic
political arena of the country. Aliyev is trying to come forward like
a soldier-president ready to "liberate lands", and in such a way he is
trying to make Azerbaijani people not to notice his own crimes.
Actually, all this is directed to remaining at the position of the
president. Since 1991 no political force of Armenia has been able to
make an adequate picture of the core of the conflict. The core and the
reasons of the Karabakh conflict are distorted. Many people in the
world think that Azerbaijan is a victim of the Armenian aggression,
and the Armenians has come forward like an aggressor that occupied
Azerbaijani lands. Though actually everything is visa versa. Moreover,
we can give judicial and legal grounding to the fact that Nagornyy
Karabakh is historical territory of Armenia.
Is there any connection between the recent arms procurement by
Azerbaijan from Israel and the current tension on the line of contact?
Even large military contracts are unable to play a decisive role in
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenia has enough military resources,
and even if it runs short of weaponry, weapons may be provided by the
Collective Security Treaty Organization and Europe, which are not
interested in a new war. European nations do not want the war to
resume as they buy oil and gas in the Caucasus, while those who do not
depend on fuel may wish a new conflict with a view to change the
balance of dominating forces in the region.
What do you think of the continuing rapprochement of Azerbaijan and
Israel amid deteriorating relations of Turkey and Israel?
I am not surprised to see Azerbaijan and Israel improving their
relations. In Israel there are lots of people who lived in Baku in the
Soviet times and have old ties with the Azeri political elite. The
arms Israel is selling to Azerbaijan may be used against Iran, which
is good for Turkey. Still it is hard to say how things will develop in
the next decade - for political preferences change very quickly.
As for contradictions between Azerbaijan and Iran, natural and
unnatural, South Caucasus before joining Russia was part of Persia and
most residents there consider themselves Persians. In addition,
anti-Iranian sentiments are dictated by Ankara, though Azerbaijan's
population do not support either the pro-Turkish orientation of the
ruling regime in Baku and or a military conflict in Iran. Therefore,
there is threat of conflicts inside Azerbaijan in case of war against
Iran.
geopolitical game of USA
ArmInfo's interview with Head of the Political Research Academy,
correspondent-member of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia
Alexander Manasyan
by Marianna Lazarian
ARMINFO
Saturday, June 16, 13:27
Mr. Manasyan, there seem to be more hidden motives in the Azerbaijani
subversive actions on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border than just desire
of Aliyev's regime to destabilize the situation around Karabakh
conflict...
The last events on the Armenian-Azeri border can be interpreted as
Azerbaijan's message to the world community and the OSCE Minsk Group
that it will not accept political or legal solutions to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and wants the problem to be solved by means
of war. That's exactly why the Azeris did it during the visit of the
US Secretary of State to the region. The second possibility is that it
was not Baku's initiative. It may have been the initiative of the
United States, which is deliberately escalating the situation in the
region for neutralizing Iran. The geo-political plans of the United
States the role of Iran is not subject to drastic changes, while
Azerbaijan is supposed to play the role of an instrument in this game.
May this big game lead to another aggression by Azerbaijan against the
Armenian people?
Even in case of the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, no blitzkrieg
is expected, actually, not only because of the geographical location
of Armenia but also because of placement of the world forces and
interests in our region. It will be very hard for Azerbaijani tanks
to run Armenian mountain paths. So this weapon will not act. As for
the air attack, Armenia is protected with rather strong air defense
equipment. At present I think that Azerbaijan will not dare to attack
Armenia. It is very much possible that by such actions Baku is trying
to impose pressure both upon the world community and domestic
political arena of the country. Aliyev is trying to come forward like
a soldier-president ready to "liberate lands", and in such a way he is
trying to make Azerbaijani people not to notice his own crimes.
Actually, all this is directed to remaining at the position of the
president. Since 1991 no political force of Armenia has been able to
make an adequate picture of the core of the conflict. The core and the
reasons of the Karabakh conflict are distorted. Many people in the
world think that Azerbaijan is a victim of the Armenian aggression,
and the Armenians has come forward like an aggressor that occupied
Azerbaijani lands. Though actually everything is visa versa. Moreover,
we can give judicial and legal grounding to the fact that Nagornyy
Karabakh is historical territory of Armenia.
Is there any connection between the recent arms procurement by
Azerbaijan from Israel and the current tension on the line of contact?
Even large military contracts are unable to play a decisive role in
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenia has enough military resources,
and even if it runs short of weaponry, weapons may be provided by the
Collective Security Treaty Organization and Europe, which are not
interested in a new war. European nations do not want the war to
resume as they buy oil and gas in the Caucasus, while those who do not
depend on fuel may wish a new conflict with a view to change the
balance of dominating forces in the region.
What do you think of the continuing rapprochement of Azerbaijan and
Israel amid deteriorating relations of Turkey and Israel?
I am not surprised to see Azerbaijan and Israel improving their
relations. In Israel there are lots of people who lived in Baku in the
Soviet times and have old ties with the Azeri political elite. The
arms Israel is selling to Azerbaijan may be used against Iran, which
is good for Turkey. Still it is hard to say how things will develop in
the next decade - for political preferences change very quickly.
As for contradictions between Azerbaijan and Iran, natural and
unnatural, South Caucasus before joining Russia was part of Persia and
most residents there consider themselves Persians. In addition,
anti-Iranian sentiments are dictated by Ankara, though Azerbaijan's
population do not support either the pro-Turkish orientation of the
ruling regime in Baku and or a military conflict in Iran. Therefore,
there is threat of conflicts inside Azerbaijan in case of war against
Iran.