Tweet
WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
June 22, 2012 Friday
DO RUSSIANS WISH A LITTLE VICTORIOUS WAR?
by Pavel Felgengauer
Source: Novaya Gazeta, June 20, 2012, p. 7
HIGHLIGHT: WHY RUSSIA REINFORCES ITS MILITARY GROUP IN THE NORTH
CAUCASUS?; Return of Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin noticeably shifts
the foreign and defense policy towards demonstration of
aggressiveness, which is in general characteristic for authoritarian
regimes in the period of domestic problems.
Return of Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin noticeably shifts the foreign
and defense policy towards demonstration of aggressiveness, which is
in general characteristic for authoritarian regimes in the period of
domestic problems. This week and last week anonymous military sources
kept reporting that a group of ships of the Black Sea Fleet was ready
for a long-range voyage to Syria and sometimes that the ships nearly
departed from Sevastopol heading for Bosporus. There were allegedly
marines and possibly armored vehicles on board of big landing ships
Nikolai Filchenkov and Tsezar Kunikov. The goal of the voyage was
evacuation of Russian citizens from Syria and defense of the base in
the Syrian port of Tartus, the last Russian military outpost outside
of the borders of the former USSR.
In any case, it seems that the final decision is not made yet and
command of the fleet says that the big landing ships are standing near
the pier, there are no marines on board and leaves for the crews are
not abolished. Suddenly, Deputy Air Force Commander General Vladimir
Gradusov announced openly that "aviation is ready to fulfill any task"
set by Putin including air defense of the Russian combat ships in case
of their sending to Syria.
A general who wants to retain his post should report to the public in
such way. However, Gradusov was obviously too hasty like our football
fans in Poland. It is possible to defend the ships in the Black Sea
Fleet but there can be only long-range aviation further. There are
only a few aerial tankers IL-78 in Russia.
About 30-40 years ago, during conflicts in the Middle East, Soviet Air
Force was based in the region. At present, there are no Russian air
bases on the coasts of the Mediterranean Sea and it is necessary to
fly there requesting a corridor through airspace of NATO countries.
Along with this, the shortest way is through Turkey that wants to
dismiss the regime of Bashar Assad in Damascus too.
We do not have aircraft-carriers in good repair too. In January, our
only aircraft-carrier Admiral Kuznetsov entered Tartus but it had only
eight last fighters Su-33 in good repair aboard (they are not produced
now) and two helicopters Ka-27 in the rescue version to save pilots in
case of Su-33 crash. We do not have even this now. Kuznetsov is put
into overhaul that is planned to last until 2017.
The big landing ships made a few decades ago in Gdansk may deliver
only a few hundreds of marines and several armored personnel carriers
(there are no amphibious tanks left). Such "group" is unable to
conduct serious combat operations independently and is unable to cope
even with a normal peacekeeping operation without support and approval
of the West: it will have to move, receive reinforcements and
procurements through Bosporus that Turkey may block at any moment.
Thus, it seems that Russian authorities are not going to fight in
Syria or to force someone to "peace." Probably they planned something
like the famous "march to Pristine" in June of 1999 when a hundred of
paratroopers-peacekeepers at armored personnel carriers moved to
Kosovo from Bosnia with an escort of Serbian police? There was a lot
of noise and national pride like after the recent match against the
Czech Republic and the end result was approximately the same. Russia
did not receive a separate sector in Kosovo, the Albanian majority
ascended to power and declared independence. Putin quietly removed the
Russian peacekeepers from Kosovo in 2003.
When the regime in Damascus falls (this is finally inevitable) the
future government of the Sunnite majority will recall supply of
armament etc and will definitely throw the Russian base out of Tartus
either directly or demanding an enormous rental rate. The risk of a
march to Tartus is big: there may be a conflict with the local
population, threat of terrorist strikes and very likely confrontation
with the West. And it will be necessary to crawl away in the end like
our football players from Poland.
The regime of Putin needs not this but loud foreign policy success and
humiliation of the West, which should cause a powerful rise of
patriotism and dissent of the "white" protest movement. In Syria it is
possible to get problems instead of this. So, I will risk presuming
that if the authorities consider something this is an alternative
option of a little victorious war with a much more predictable
outcome.
Quite official reports about hasty rearming of the troops and air
force in the Southern Military District in the North Caucasus have
been published in a growing flow since December. It is reported that
troops of the Southern Federal District are armed with modern
communication systems and armored vehicles (tanks T-90A and T-72BM,
BMP-3 and BTR-82A) by 65-70%, with aviation almost by 100%, whereas in
the Armed Forces as a whole percentage of modern hardware amounts to
16% now. Mobile anti-ship coastal missile system Bal-E with range of
120 kilometers is deployed on the Caspian coast of Dagestan and
Bastion system with supersonic anti-ship system Yakhont with range of
300 kilometers id deployed on the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus.
Along with this, so far the base of the newest strategic nuclear
submarines on Kamchatka is guarded only by ancient counterpart of
Bastion called Redut.
Putin went on his first visit to a military unit after inauguration
last week to the Southern Military District, to the 393rd air base in
Korenovsk of Krasnodar Territory where he inspected the newest army
aircraft and chaired a meeting dedicated to rearming of the Air Force.
Practically simultaneously the General Staff and the Foreign Ministry
started speaking about the "Georgian revanchism" and accused Tbilisi
of preparation of a new war and the West of encouraging of the
potential "aggressor."
The situation on the ceasefire line in Nagorno-Karabakh grew worse
simultaneously. According to various sources, from 10 to 30 people
died there in fighting in the first half of June. There were also
cases of firing exchange outside of Nagorno-Karabakh at the
Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Because there are no permanent neutral
observers or demilitarized zones on the ceasefire line established in
1994, both parties accuse each other and it is difficult to find out
who is right.
The time of rent of the radar (built in the USSR) of the early warning
system in Gabala expires this year. Baku already demanded increasing
of rent payments from $7 million to $300 million, which caused
terrible irritation of Moscow. In response Armenia proposed deployment
of a new early warning radar on its territory free of charge. While
the peaceful resolving of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem is becoming
increasingly problematic, both parties try to attract Russia to their
side using also the influence of the national Diasporas in Moscow.
So far, Armenians succeed more. Armenia is a CSTO member and has a
Russian base with troops and aviation on its territory. However, there
is no military ground transit to Armenia from Russia through
Azerbaijan or through Georgia, which is absolutely unacceptable for
Moscow in the long term. If the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani
border grows even worse Russia may quite demand a corridor from
Georgia for passage of reinforcements to Armenia and in case of
practically inevitable refusal it may move to fulfill its ally duty
without invitation.
There are no serious problems related to remoteness of the theater in
Transcaucasia unlike in Syria. Air bases are nearby in the Southern
Military District, as well as troops, armament and field depots.
Everything seems to be already prepared. It evidently seems to someone
that by one quick blow Georgia may be cleared from American influence
and will stop striving for NATO membership. Armenia will be tied
closer and Azerbaijan will not escape anywhere. Along with this, the
gas and oil pipelines from the Caspian Basin will be under reliable
control and Russian peacekeepers will enter Nagorno-Karabakh
establishing the new status quo. The regime of personal power will be
strengthened in Moscow and let the US and its allies deal with Syria
and Iran as much as they wish.
[translated from Russian]
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
June 22, 2012 Friday
DO RUSSIANS WISH A LITTLE VICTORIOUS WAR?
by Pavel Felgengauer
Source: Novaya Gazeta, June 20, 2012, p. 7
HIGHLIGHT: WHY RUSSIA REINFORCES ITS MILITARY GROUP IN THE NORTH
CAUCASUS?; Return of Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin noticeably shifts
the foreign and defense policy towards demonstration of
aggressiveness, which is in general characteristic for authoritarian
regimes in the period of domestic problems.
Return of Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin noticeably shifts the foreign
and defense policy towards demonstration of aggressiveness, which is
in general characteristic for authoritarian regimes in the period of
domestic problems. This week and last week anonymous military sources
kept reporting that a group of ships of the Black Sea Fleet was ready
for a long-range voyage to Syria and sometimes that the ships nearly
departed from Sevastopol heading for Bosporus. There were allegedly
marines and possibly armored vehicles on board of big landing ships
Nikolai Filchenkov and Tsezar Kunikov. The goal of the voyage was
evacuation of Russian citizens from Syria and defense of the base in
the Syrian port of Tartus, the last Russian military outpost outside
of the borders of the former USSR.
In any case, it seems that the final decision is not made yet and
command of the fleet says that the big landing ships are standing near
the pier, there are no marines on board and leaves for the crews are
not abolished. Suddenly, Deputy Air Force Commander General Vladimir
Gradusov announced openly that "aviation is ready to fulfill any task"
set by Putin including air defense of the Russian combat ships in case
of their sending to Syria.
A general who wants to retain his post should report to the public in
such way. However, Gradusov was obviously too hasty like our football
fans in Poland. It is possible to defend the ships in the Black Sea
Fleet but there can be only long-range aviation further. There are
only a few aerial tankers IL-78 in Russia.
About 30-40 years ago, during conflicts in the Middle East, Soviet Air
Force was based in the region. At present, there are no Russian air
bases on the coasts of the Mediterranean Sea and it is necessary to
fly there requesting a corridor through airspace of NATO countries.
Along with this, the shortest way is through Turkey that wants to
dismiss the regime of Bashar Assad in Damascus too.
We do not have aircraft-carriers in good repair too. In January, our
only aircraft-carrier Admiral Kuznetsov entered Tartus but it had only
eight last fighters Su-33 in good repair aboard (they are not produced
now) and two helicopters Ka-27 in the rescue version to save pilots in
case of Su-33 crash. We do not have even this now. Kuznetsov is put
into overhaul that is planned to last until 2017.
The big landing ships made a few decades ago in Gdansk may deliver
only a few hundreds of marines and several armored personnel carriers
(there are no amphibious tanks left). Such "group" is unable to
conduct serious combat operations independently and is unable to cope
even with a normal peacekeeping operation without support and approval
of the West: it will have to move, receive reinforcements and
procurements through Bosporus that Turkey may block at any moment.
Thus, it seems that Russian authorities are not going to fight in
Syria or to force someone to "peace." Probably they planned something
like the famous "march to Pristine" in June of 1999 when a hundred of
paratroopers-peacekeepers at armored personnel carriers moved to
Kosovo from Bosnia with an escort of Serbian police? There was a lot
of noise and national pride like after the recent match against the
Czech Republic and the end result was approximately the same. Russia
did not receive a separate sector in Kosovo, the Albanian majority
ascended to power and declared independence. Putin quietly removed the
Russian peacekeepers from Kosovo in 2003.
When the regime in Damascus falls (this is finally inevitable) the
future government of the Sunnite majority will recall supply of
armament etc and will definitely throw the Russian base out of Tartus
either directly or demanding an enormous rental rate. The risk of a
march to Tartus is big: there may be a conflict with the local
population, threat of terrorist strikes and very likely confrontation
with the West. And it will be necessary to crawl away in the end like
our football players from Poland.
The regime of Putin needs not this but loud foreign policy success and
humiliation of the West, which should cause a powerful rise of
patriotism and dissent of the "white" protest movement. In Syria it is
possible to get problems instead of this. So, I will risk presuming
that if the authorities consider something this is an alternative
option of a little victorious war with a much more predictable
outcome.
Quite official reports about hasty rearming of the troops and air
force in the Southern Military District in the North Caucasus have
been published in a growing flow since December. It is reported that
troops of the Southern Federal District are armed with modern
communication systems and armored vehicles (tanks T-90A and T-72BM,
BMP-3 and BTR-82A) by 65-70%, with aviation almost by 100%, whereas in
the Armed Forces as a whole percentage of modern hardware amounts to
16% now. Mobile anti-ship coastal missile system Bal-E with range of
120 kilometers is deployed on the Caspian coast of Dagestan and
Bastion system with supersonic anti-ship system Yakhont with range of
300 kilometers id deployed on the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus.
Along with this, so far the base of the newest strategic nuclear
submarines on Kamchatka is guarded only by ancient counterpart of
Bastion called Redut.
Putin went on his first visit to a military unit after inauguration
last week to the Southern Military District, to the 393rd air base in
Korenovsk of Krasnodar Territory where he inspected the newest army
aircraft and chaired a meeting dedicated to rearming of the Air Force.
Practically simultaneously the General Staff and the Foreign Ministry
started speaking about the "Georgian revanchism" and accused Tbilisi
of preparation of a new war and the West of encouraging of the
potential "aggressor."
The situation on the ceasefire line in Nagorno-Karabakh grew worse
simultaneously. According to various sources, from 10 to 30 people
died there in fighting in the first half of June. There were also
cases of firing exchange outside of Nagorno-Karabakh at the
Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Because there are no permanent neutral
observers or demilitarized zones on the ceasefire line established in
1994, both parties accuse each other and it is difficult to find out
who is right.
The time of rent of the radar (built in the USSR) of the early warning
system in Gabala expires this year. Baku already demanded increasing
of rent payments from $7 million to $300 million, which caused
terrible irritation of Moscow. In response Armenia proposed deployment
of a new early warning radar on its territory free of charge. While
the peaceful resolving of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem is becoming
increasingly problematic, both parties try to attract Russia to their
side using also the influence of the national Diasporas in Moscow.
So far, Armenians succeed more. Armenia is a CSTO member and has a
Russian base with troops and aviation on its territory. However, there
is no military ground transit to Armenia from Russia through
Azerbaijan or through Georgia, which is absolutely unacceptable for
Moscow in the long term. If the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani
border grows even worse Russia may quite demand a corridor from
Georgia for passage of reinforcements to Armenia and in case of
practically inevitable refusal it may move to fulfill its ally duty
without invitation.
There are no serious problems related to remoteness of the theater in
Transcaucasia unlike in Syria. Air bases are nearby in the Southern
Military District, as well as troops, armament and field depots.
Everything seems to be already prepared. It evidently seems to someone
that by one quick blow Georgia may be cleared from American influence
and will stop striving for NATO membership. Armenia will be tied
closer and Azerbaijan will not escape anywhere. Along with this, the
gas and oil pipelines from the Caspian Basin will be under reliable
control and Russian peacekeepers will enter Nagorno-Karabakh
establishing the new status quo. The regime of personal power will be
strengthened in Moscow and let the US and its allies deal with Syria
and Iran as much as they wish.
[translated from Russian]