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WHY IS TURKEY AFRAID TO INTERVENE IN SYRIA?
Arab News
June 24, 2012 Sunday
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Turkey is the largest neighbor of Syria and it has a huge influence,
especially in its northern regions. The Turks obtained some legal
reasons for intervention in Syria to defend their interests and
sovereignty, which was violated several times by the Syrian armed
forces. We should not forget that what happens in Syria poses a threat
to the security of Turkey, whether the regime remains or leaves.
Turkey fears that the Turkish and Kurd separatists might return
after it had crushed them. The military operations against them cost
Turkey more than 40,000 deaths in the past guerilla warfare. Turkey
also fears that terrorist groups might fill in the void that would
follow the downfall of the regime. It also fears that, if it survives,
the regime may take revenge against it.
When the Syrian defense systems downed a Turkish military plane a
few days ago, everybody expected Turkey to take revenge immediately,
particularly that it had previously warned the Syrian regime it would
not keep silent over the repeated aggressions of its forces across the
borders. But Turkey disappointed many people. It has done so before
when it made a solemn pledge that it would not allow the continued
slaughtering of the Syrian people.
Turkey is a big neighbor. It has huge military might that would enable
it to emerge triumphant in any military confrontation. It will find
itself very warmly welcomed by the majority of the Syrian people as
a savior from a criminal regime that kills dozens of innocent and
unarmed civilians every day. What prevents Turkey from becoming like
the US when it freed France from the Nazi occupation? What holds
Turkey back from becoming like Saudi Arabia and the US when they
liberated Kuwait from the invading Saddam forces? Prime Minister of
Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan could play the same role played by former
US President Bill Clinton in salvaging Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo.
Turkey continually insinuated that it wished to intervene to harness
the regime and stop the massacres against the Syrians, but it always
seemed scary.
Why is Turkey frightened when it has the military might that will
make its victory over Assad's regime an easy task, especially given
that his forces are fatigued and detested by the people? The Turkish
military strength was well expressed by the former prime minister
of Cyprus when he was asked why his country didn't arm itself. He
replied: "There is no use. Turkey has enough power to crush us in a
few hours." The reasons behind Turkey's fears, in my opinion, are that
the Turks, who fought their last individual battles against the Greek
Cypriots in August 1974, do not want to be part of any war unless it
is under an international flag. This will not be possible because of
the Russian and Chinese veto. They would also want to go into Syria
as part of a NATO alliance similar to what happened in Libya. Again,
this will not be possible, because NATO is not interested in fighting
Assad. Turkey wants to be part of an international campaign. It is
a large NATO member, second only after the US, with a military force
of 750,000 soldiers.
Why doesn't Turkey have the will to fight the Syrian regime regardless
of what it has done to it and the embarrassment it has caused in
front of the public opinion in the region? The Turks, in my belief,
are hoping for one of two things to happen: the Syrian regime bowing
down in front of the continued uprising that has exhausted it;
or the world community, which is sick of its crimes, coming to an
agreement to topple it by force. In the second option, Turkey will be
the spearhead and enter Damascus under an international banner. This
second possibility is, however, not likely because of Russia, which
totally backs the Syrian regime.
Turkey has its own internal fears that any war it wages against Syria
will open a hell for it by the separatists or opposing Kurdish and
Armenian groups. Externally, it fears that Iran may attack it if it
dares to fight Syria. These are, however, weak justifications because
Turkey is militarily and economically much stronger than Iran. It will
also be assisted by NATO in this case. Secondly, the Syrian regime
is actually staggering, despite the solid look Assad is trying to fake.
I believe that Turkey - who has been hesitant for a long time, kept
silent on Assad's continued humiliations and disappointed those who
thought it to be a brave lion - would ultimately reach a point to
drive it to intervene in Syria to protect its interests. The only
difference is that Turkey, if it decides to intervene now, will get
huge popular and moral support by he Arabs and other communities who
abhor Assad's regime.
Arab News
June 24, 2012 Sunday
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Turkey is the largest neighbor of Syria and it has a huge influence,
especially in its northern regions. The Turks obtained some legal
reasons for intervention in Syria to defend their interests and
sovereignty, which was violated several times by the Syrian armed
forces. We should not forget that what happens in Syria poses a threat
to the security of Turkey, whether the regime remains or leaves.
Turkey fears that the Turkish and Kurd separatists might return
after it had crushed them. The military operations against them cost
Turkey more than 40,000 deaths in the past guerilla warfare. Turkey
also fears that terrorist groups might fill in the void that would
follow the downfall of the regime. It also fears that, if it survives,
the regime may take revenge against it.
When the Syrian defense systems downed a Turkish military plane a
few days ago, everybody expected Turkey to take revenge immediately,
particularly that it had previously warned the Syrian regime it would
not keep silent over the repeated aggressions of its forces across the
borders. But Turkey disappointed many people. It has done so before
when it made a solemn pledge that it would not allow the continued
slaughtering of the Syrian people.
Turkey is a big neighbor. It has huge military might that would enable
it to emerge triumphant in any military confrontation. It will find
itself very warmly welcomed by the majority of the Syrian people as
a savior from a criminal regime that kills dozens of innocent and
unarmed civilians every day. What prevents Turkey from becoming like
the US when it freed France from the Nazi occupation? What holds
Turkey back from becoming like Saudi Arabia and the US when they
liberated Kuwait from the invading Saddam forces? Prime Minister of
Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan could play the same role played by former
US President Bill Clinton in salvaging Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo.
Turkey continually insinuated that it wished to intervene to harness
the regime and stop the massacres against the Syrians, but it always
seemed scary.
Why is Turkey frightened when it has the military might that will
make its victory over Assad's regime an easy task, especially given
that his forces are fatigued and detested by the people? The Turkish
military strength was well expressed by the former prime minister
of Cyprus when he was asked why his country didn't arm itself. He
replied: "There is no use. Turkey has enough power to crush us in a
few hours." The reasons behind Turkey's fears, in my opinion, are that
the Turks, who fought their last individual battles against the Greek
Cypriots in August 1974, do not want to be part of any war unless it
is under an international flag. This will not be possible because of
the Russian and Chinese veto. They would also want to go into Syria
as part of a NATO alliance similar to what happened in Libya. Again,
this will not be possible, because NATO is not interested in fighting
Assad. Turkey wants to be part of an international campaign. It is
a large NATO member, second only after the US, with a military force
of 750,000 soldiers.
Why doesn't Turkey have the will to fight the Syrian regime regardless
of what it has done to it and the embarrassment it has caused in
front of the public opinion in the region? The Turks, in my belief,
are hoping for one of two things to happen: the Syrian regime bowing
down in front of the continued uprising that has exhausted it;
or the world community, which is sick of its crimes, coming to an
agreement to topple it by force. In the second option, Turkey will be
the spearhead and enter Damascus under an international banner. This
second possibility is, however, not likely because of Russia, which
totally backs the Syrian regime.
Turkey has its own internal fears that any war it wages against Syria
will open a hell for it by the separatists or opposing Kurdish and
Armenian groups. Externally, it fears that Iran may attack it if it
dares to fight Syria. These are, however, weak justifications because
Turkey is militarily and economically much stronger than Iran. It will
also be assisted by NATO in this case. Secondly, the Syrian regime
is actually staggering, despite the solid look Assad is trying to fake.
I believe that Turkey - who has been hesitant for a long time, kept
silent on Assad's continued humiliations and disappointed those who
thought it to be a brave lion - would ultimately reach a point to
drive it to intervene in Syria to protect its interests. The only
difference is that Turkey, if it decides to intervene now, will get
huge popular and moral support by he Arabs and other communities who
abhor Assad's regime.