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Analysis: Russia's friends and foes

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  • Analysis: Russia's friends and foes

    Washington Times, DC
    June 9 2005

    Analysis: Russia's friends and foes


    By Peter Lavelle
    UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL


    Moscow, Russia, Jun. 9 (UPI) -- A recent public opinion poll suggests
    Russians clearly believe the country has friends and foes in the
    world. However, results also suggest Russians are almost evenly split
    -- for some a foe is a friend and a friend a foe. Is Russia still
    looking for its place in the world?


    The Levada Center, Russia's independent and most-respected public
    opinion agency, polled 1,600 Russians older than 18 years of age at
    the end May to determine how the general population sees the outside
    world. Determining which countries in the world are Russia's friends
    and foes produced surprises and even contradictions.

    News reports of the Levada Center's findings did not make clear
    whether citizens polled were prompted with names of countries or
    asked to number countries on their own. The poll also did not provide
    a margin of error.

    Belarus came out on top as Russia's greatest friend in the world with
    46 percent. Following Belarus, Germany came in second with 23 percent
    and Russia's other friends include Kazakhstan 20 percent, Ukraine 17
    percent, India16 percent, France 13 percent, China 12 percent, the
    United States 11 percent, Bulgaria 11 percent and Armenia 9 percent.

    On the other side of the ledger, Latvia topped the list as Russia's
    strongest foe according to 49 percent of respondents. Following it,
    Lithuania with 42 percent, Georgia at 38 percent, Estonia 32 percent,
    the United States 23 percent, France 13 percent, Afghanistan 12
    percent, Iraq 10 percent, Japan 6 percent and Iran 6 percent.

    Cursory review of the poll's findings shows many interesting issues
    currently in play. Russia's greatest recent enemy -- Germany -- is
    widely seen to be a friend. Russia's other important adversary during
    the World War II, Japan, is not widely seen to be an enemy by a vast
    majority of those polled.

    Many of the countries that are considered enemies now are Russia's
    neighbors. The recent heated public demand and diplomatic row that
    Russia should apologize to the Baltic republics for a half century of
    Soviet occupation should be ascribed to the current antipathy many
    Russian have toward those countries. The widely held belief that
    Russian nationals living in the Baltic republics are denied some
    basic human rights have also influenced public perceptions of these
    countries.

    The former Soviet republic of Georgia is also viewed in a dim light
    among many Russians. The close relationship President Mikhail
    Saakashvili has pursued with the United States and the tug-of-war
    over the closure of Russian military bases in the country has soured
    Russia-Georgian relations in the public mind.

    The perception of Ukraine and the United States is the most striking
    and contradictory of the poll results -- both countries are deemed as
    friend and foe by many of the respondents.

    Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" and many of the anti-Russian overtones
    that could be heard in media claiming Kremlin "meddling" in Ukraine's
    internal affairs continues to be irksome to many Russians. At the
    same time, people-to-people and economic relations continue to tie
    the two countries together.

    The perception of the United States appears to be almost
    schizophrenic. The fact that more respondents see it as a foe than as
    a friend could be accounted for as a lingering Cold War phenomenon.
    However, what may be more important than the past is many of the
    countries considered foes have good relations with Washington. After
    all, President Bush sandwiched his recent visit Moscow with stops in
    Latvia and Georgia.

    Another important result of the public opinion poll is the conclusion
    that the majority of Russians asked have no majority consensus of one
    international friend or foe and a significant minority who believe it
    has more foes than friends.

    The poll result also demonstrates how Russia has maintained close
    ties with former Soviet friends, India for example. But Russia has
    also reached out to former Soviet foes, namely the United States.
    Some former constituent parts of the Soviet Union -- once considered
    "family" -- rate high as countries most disliked.

    The most compelling reason for the lack of consensus among many
    Russians can be explained as a reflection of Russia still trying to
    find its place in the world after the Soviet collapse 14 years ago.

    Most importantly, Russia appears to find it hardest to come to terms
    with many of the countries it has had the closest relations with for
    centuries. This should serve as a wake up call for the Kremlin that
    Russia's neighbors are also coping to find their place in the world.

    --

    Peter Lavelle is United Press International's Moscow correspondent.
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