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  • David Hovhannissyan: Destabilization Of The Situation In Syria Has B

    DAVID HOVHANNISSYAN: DESTABILIZATION OF THE SITUATION IN SYRIA HAS BEEN CAUSED BY THE EXTERNALLY IMPOSED INFILTRATION
    by David Stepanyan

    arminfo
    Tuesday, July 31, 12:06

    Interview of Director of Center for Political and Culturological
    Studies of Yerevan State University, Orientalist, Professor David
    Hovhannissyan with ArmInfo News Agency

    Mr.Hovhannisyan, would the current aggravation of the domestic
    situation in Syria be possible without external sponsorship? Is the
    Syrians' discontent based on domestic factors or is it restricted to
    the so-called "export of democracy"?

    If the so-called "rebels" were not sponsored from outside and if
    there were no permanent infiltration of the Muslim Brotherhood and
    Salafis-Wahabis from the territory of Turkey and Iraq, I do not think
    Syria would face the current situation. I do not want to say that
    the Syrian system of governance is ideal. On the contrary, it is
    authoritarian. In the meantime, though Syria experienced hard times
    because of the Arab-Israeli conflict, it has become a serious state and
    one of the key players in several spheres since the current president's
    father Hafez Assad came to power. These are the Arab-Israeli conflict,
    the allied relations with Iran, the USSR, and present Russia. I
    should say that alongside with the growth of Syria's significance,
    the level of public welfare was also growing. Certainly, there were
    also discontent people, particularly, the Muslim Brotherhood.

    When the Alawi minority was at power, it guaranteed quite harmonious
    co-existence of various ethnic and confessional groups of the
    population of Syria, which is a unique country, in which almost
    all the well-known branches of Christianity and Muslimism got along
    together perfectly, except the most marginal and radical ones. This
    period of domestic stability has always been highly estimated by
    the population of Syria. Thus, the destabilization of the situation
    in Syria has been caused by the externally imposed infiltration,
    activation of foreign forces.

    I am quite well aware of this country, its moods and the people
    discontent with Bashar Assad's regime. On the other hand, the
    statements that democracy will come to Syria after Assad's resignation
    is a real bluff. There can be no such a thing as there are very few
    people with liberal-democratic moods in Syria, which represent no
    organized force. On the other hand, the Muslim

    Brotherhood and the Salafis may just as well find a foothold among
    the Syrians given that the Sunnis constitute the major part of the
    Syrian population.

    Do you agree with the opinion that on the whole Bashar Assad himself
    is a liberal, at least as compared to the Muslim Brotherhood?

    Since Bashar Assad came to power, he has really been trying to hold
    reforms to liberalize the country, to contribute to more openness
    of the society, demonopolization of economy; private banks were
    launched in Syria. Thus, Assad conducted a policy aimed at enhancing
    the competitiveness; however, all his efforts not only failed but
    are also used against him now.

    Which of the foreign actors doesn't need Assad's Syria and why?

    Now that the Americans have withdrawn their troops from Iraq, they
    are eager to break the Iran-Iraq Shi'a chain, where Syria is a strong
    link. Moderate Sunni Turkey would like to see Syria ruled by a Sunni
    government. In such a case its influence would grow, while that of
    Iran would decline. In its turn, Saudi Arabia sponsors a radical Sunni
    network and would like Syria to be controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood
    or the Salafis, better known as Al Qaeda. In fact, this network acts
    against both Turkey and Iran. So, you should not confuse the interests
    of Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The interests of the Europeans are quite
    contradictory. The United Kingdom supports the United States. France
    has traditionally supported the Alawis but today its policy has
    changed. As regards the Germans, they are quite detached.

    A couple of days ago, expert on the Caucasus of the CIS Institute
    Mikhail Alexandrov called on Armenia to be more active in this field.

    Has the voice of our Foreign Ministry any chances to be heard?

    Armenia should make its position known to the international
    organizations that are concerned about the situation in Syria. We must
    be active in this matter as we are very close to Syria and are closely
    connected with the local Armenians. There are also lots of Armenian
    cultural and spiritual values in Syria, like churches, libraries, etc.

    And we must do our best to preserve them - something we will not be
    able to do if Armenians leave Syria. We should use all of our lobbying
    channels to guarantee the safety of our compatriots and their property
    in Syria. However, I do not think that the Armenian factor in Syria
    may disappear. Some Armenians are leaving that country but most of
    them prefer to stay at home. They have families, jobs, businesses,
    houses. They are pragmatic people and will not leave all this to the
    mercy of fate.

    What trends do you observe in Syria given the latest developments?

    The July 18 acts of terrorism have shown that the operation against
    Syria is well-organized. Still I think that the disorders in Damascus
    and Aleppo will be gradually suppressed. The key task of the Syrian
    authorities is to regain control over the Turkish and Iraqi borders.

    Things are still far from settlement, but the key actors are already
    negotiating this possibility as the examples of Egypt and Libya have
    shown how dangerous such situations can be. In fact, the Syrians have
    already got tired of all this and wish to live normally again. At
    some moment, this tiredness may turn into displeasure with the Assad
    family. On the other hand, it is unclear who can replace them: the
    Liberals are not known, the Muslim Brotherhood is unpopular. In fact,
    most of the Syrians still support Assad, so, he still has chances to
    retain his power.

    The foreign mass media have recently started speaking of the Syrian
    chemical weapons. What are they doing it for?

    Israel is organizing a special operation to find and seize Syria's
    chemical weapons. It is still possible that Bashar Assad will be
    replaced by uncontrolled people, so, it is necessary to quickly solve
    this problem. My biggest concern is that some external forces may use
    this as a pretext for entering Syria for 'deactivating' the weapons.

    The Syrian authorities have repeatedly said that their chemical
    weapons are a response to Israel's nuclear arms. But while Assad is a
    predictable partner for Israel, the people who may come in his place
    will not be so. Hence, Israel needs to find and seize the weapons as
    soon as possible.


    From: Baghdasarian
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