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What Will Putin Tell Sargsyan?

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  • What Will Putin Tell Sargsyan?

    WHAT WILL PUTIN TELL SARGSYAN?
    HAKOB BADALYAN

    Story from Lragir.am News:
    http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments27017.html
    Published: 12:30:37 - 02/08/2012

    The information office of the president reports Serzh Sargsyan has
    left for a short vacation today and will spend part of it abroad. He
    will interrupt his holiday and leave for Russia for a working visit
    to meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on August 8.

    The fact that Serzh Sargsyan will interrupt his holiday to leave for
    Moscow means the Moscow visit is urgent otherwise why should Sargsyan
    interrupt his holiday if he could postpone the visit till after the
    vacation. The schedule of presidents is busy, especially that of the
    Russian president but if Putin has decided to interrupt Sargsyan's
    holiday means he has something urgent to tell him.

    Moreover, maybe what he is going to tell is not even so important but
    he wants to interrupt the holidays just in order to put psychological
    pressure on Serzh Sargsyan and to show that Armenia is ready to rush
    at Moscow's call. By interrupting his holiday and leaving for Moscow,
    Sargsyan confirms Putin's "truth".

    At the same time, Sargsyan cannot refuse to leave for Moscow since
    the domestic situation in Armenia is not clear. Serzh Sargsyan enjoys
    the support of the West but the latter, for example, refused the
    promised money and delayed its allocation after the presidential
    elections with the condition that the quality should be better and
    reforms should be intensified.

    Later, Armenia was rumored to ask for money from Russia. The government
    has neither denied nor confirmed this information, saying the process
    of requesting money from foreign countries is an ongoing process.

    Serzh Sargsyan needs money to activate the economy and eliminate
    threats of possible social revolt. The issue is not only the social
    revolt. Merely, it is of vital importance for Serzh Sargsyan to show
    social progress ahead of the elections, otherwise the current economic
    policy and its sad outcome will just intensify nostalgia for Robert
    Kocharyan's "double-digit growth".

    In order to resist to all this, Serzh Sargsyan needs to find money
    and ensure economic activation prior to the presidential elections,
    or he needs to convince Moscow that it is possible to work with him and
    there is no need to consider the option of Robert Kocharyan's return.

    On the other hand, this may cause problems between Serzh Sargsyan and
    the West. Earlier, the West used to have a mild approach to Armenia.

    It is difficult to say whether their attitude has become tough but
    it has evidently been clarified, and the limits of maneuvering for
    Yerevan have been narrowed.

    In this situation, Serzh Sargsyan needs to give loyalty guarantees
    to Moscow at the same time satisfying the minimal expectations or
    demands of the West relating to the dismantlement of the ruling system.

    But the situation is complicated for him because this minimal
    expectations will arouse doubts in Russia where they understand
    that if at least one stone drops out of the ruling system, it will
    collapse. Meanwhile, destruction of the system means collapse
    of Moscow's supremacy in Armenia because it is based on the
    criminal-oligarchic system.

    No doubt, a difficult meeting is expecting Serzh Sargsyan in Moscow.

    The interesting thing is that Serzh Sargsyan's visit was preceded by
    visits of several Russian delegations to Armenia, namely the speaker
    of two chambers of the Russian parliament, Russian president's envoy
    on humanitarian issues, the foreign minister of Russia. Serzh Sargsyan
    met the Russian PM Medvedev in London.

    It is not ruled out that these delegations did not get the answers
    to their questions in Yerevan so Putin decided to talk to Serzh
    Sargsyan personally.

    But at the same time, it is also possible that the meeting with Putin
    is initiated by Armenia and through it Serzh Sargsyan is trying to
    agree on domestic processes in Armenia for Moscow not to generate a
    force-majeure situation in September. And perhaps, Putin agreed to
    discuss these issues only after Russian delegations left Armenia with
    satisfactory answers.

    As to the West's possible response, the situation is relative here.

    The West cannot be satisfied with Armenia's EU-West sentiment expressed
    in the form of statements while de facto governance promotes Russia's
    supremacy or at least does not try to weaken it and build a sovereign
    state.

    On the other hand, however, the Western policy has quite pragmatic
    expressions in Armenia and is characterized by strategic and tactical
    harmony, even if there is a formal opposition. The point is that
    for strategic success, the West needs to tolerate Russia's tactical
    success in Armenia. In this particular case they will, probably, attach
    importance to the lack of danger coming from Russia's destructive
    policy since otherwise not only the Western tactics but the strategy
    also would be threatened.

    After all, the West proceeds from the reality that it may lead a
    strategic policy in the South Caucasus and may maneuver for its sake
    while Russia's tactics has become a strategic goal. Here is a paradox
    when Russia's tactical success works for the Western strategy.

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