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RUBEN SAFRASTYAN: "IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPEAK ABOUT ASAAD'S REPLACEMENT BY THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD"
Vestnik Kavkaza
Aug 3 2012
Russia
Interview by David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to VK
The Head of the Oriental Studies Institute of the Armenian Academy
of Sciences, Professor Ruben Safrastyan, told VK about the reasons
for the Syrian crisis, the Iranian and Kurdish factors in further
developments in the Middle East and the fate of Syrian Armenians.
- Many Armenians have already left Syria. Do you see a threat of
elimination of the Armenian diaspora in Syria?
- According to reports coming from Syria, the situation around the
Armenian diaspora is difficult there. People are becoming victims
of the military operations taking place in the country. There is
information on the deaths of Armenians. It is no surprise that people
prefer to leave Armenia. According to official sources, more than 2
thousand people have already returned. The number of Armenians coming
from Syria will increase, but there are no reasons for a mass exodus
of Armenians from Syria. For decades the Armenian diaspora has been
living in Syria in peace and prosperity. Now Armenians are under
constant danger. And until this danger disappears, the Armenians who
have left won't come back to Syria.
- After withdrawal of government troops, Syrian Kurds living in the
northern-west of the country took control of the border with Turkey
and several northern provinces of Syria. Considering the nervous
reaction of Ankara, the withdrawal of Syrian troops was deliberate...
- I think this was another tactical step by President Assad, who
opened the Syrian border with Iraq and Turkey to enable him to use
the Kurdish card in the struggle against Turkey. On the other hand,
the Kurdish organizations acting on the territory of Syria strive
for autonomy within Syria, but in the future they might strive for
independence. The number of Kurds is not so big, about 1.5 million,
i.e. less than 10% of the Syrian population. They have close relations
with Iraqi Kurdistan, headed by Barzani. As for the Turkish concerns
expressed by Premier Recep Erdogan, they are reasonable. A second
Kurdish autonomy is a serious threat to Turkey. At the same time,
militants of the Kurdistan Workers Party fighting Turkey are active
in Syria. The example of Iraqi Kurdistan, where bases of the PKK
are situated, proves that after withdrawal of Syrian troops from
the Turkish-Syrian border the militants of the PKK will have the
opportunity to penetrate Turkey from Syria without any obstacles.
- But the PKK was active on the territory of Alawi Syria before the
actual opening of the borders...
- It had bases in Syria before. But Turkey made a reckless step in
standing against Assad. Ankara's policy doesn't rely on any current
geopolitical or simply political realities. An attempt to boost its
regional influence at such a time is reckless. It led to an improvement
of the Kurdish factor.
- Why is the replacement of the predictable Assad by unpredictable
Islamists beneficial for the West?
- First of all, the anti-Assad position of the USA is based on
geopolitical aspects. An Alawi and Shia-dominated Syria provided an
independent policy based on cooperation with Shia Iran and Russia to
some extent. Therefore, overthrowing Assad will lead to a weakening
of Iran's positions in the Middle East, as well as Russia's positions.
This is one of the main aims of American foreign policy. At the
same time, the US is seriously trying to build relations with
the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Syria. But it is too early to
speak about the replacement of Assad by the Muslim Brotherhood. The
information war around Syria should be taken into consideration, as
many events are exaggerated artificially. Assad manages to maintain
the government structure and control over the army. It is obvious
that the West and some Arab countries won't have a legitimate right to
interfere in Syrian affairs. The riots in Syria have internal economic
reasons of course. And if the regime of Assad falls, the political
structure of post-Assad Syria will include the Muslim Brotherhood
and representatives of the pro-Western Syrian intelligentsia living
in the West today.
- Do you think the US strives to overthrow Assad as part of a chain
leading to the overthrow of the Ayatollahs' in Iran?
- The US supports the rebels in destabilizing the situation in Syria
because they strive to eliminate the Ayatollah's power in Iran. Today
the US, Israel, and some Arab countries are providing a policy of
isolating Iran. Meanwhile, the intelligence services of Israel and
the US have no evidence that Iran is enriching uranium for military
purposes. Overthrowing the Syrian government will play a big role in
isolating Iran.
Vestnik Kavkaza
Aug 3 2012
Russia
Interview by David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to VK
The Head of the Oriental Studies Institute of the Armenian Academy
of Sciences, Professor Ruben Safrastyan, told VK about the reasons
for the Syrian crisis, the Iranian and Kurdish factors in further
developments in the Middle East and the fate of Syrian Armenians.
- Many Armenians have already left Syria. Do you see a threat of
elimination of the Armenian diaspora in Syria?
- According to reports coming from Syria, the situation around the
Armenian diaspora is difficult there. People are becoming victims
of the military operations taking place in the country. There is
information on the deaths of Armenians. It is no surprise that people
prefer to leave Armenia. According to official sources, more than 2
thousand people have already returned. The number of Armenians coming
from Syria will increase, but there are no reasons for a mass exodus
of Armenians from Syria. For decades the Armenian diaspora has been
living in Syria in peace and prosperity. Now Armenians are under
constant danger. And until this danger disappears, the Armenians who
have left won't come back to Syria.
- After withdrawal of government troops, Syrian Kurds living in the
northern-west of the country took control of the border with Turkey
and several northern provinces of Syria. Considering the nervous
reaction of Ankara, the withdrawal of Syrian troops was deliberate...
- I think this was another tactical step by President Assad, who
opened the Syrian border with Iraq and Turkey to enable him to use
the Kurdish card in the struggle against Turkey. On the other hand,
the Kurdish organizations acting on the territory of Syria strive
for autonomy within Syria, but in the future they might strive for
independence. The number of Kurds is not so big, about 1.5 million,
i.e. less than 10% of the Syrian population. They have close relations
with Iraqi Kurdistan, headed by Barzani. As for the Turkish concerns
expressed by Premier Recep Erdogan, they are reasonable. A second
Kurdish autonomy is a serious threat to Turkey. At the same time,
militants of the Kurdistan Workers Party fighting Turkey are active
in Syria. The example of Iraqi Kurdistan, where bases of the PKK
are situated, proves that after withdrawal of Syrian troops from
the Turkish-Syrian border the militants of the PKK will have the
opportunity to penetrate Turkey from Syria without any obstacles.
- But the PKK was active on the territory of Alawi Syria before the
actual opening of the borders...
- It had bases in Syria before. But Turkey made a reckless step in
standing against Assad. Ankara's policy doesn't rely on any current
geopolitical or simply political realities. An attempt to boost its
regional influence at such a time is reckless. It led to an improvement
of the Kurdish factor.
- Why is the replacement of the predictable Assad by unpredictable
Islamists beneficial for the West?
- First of all, the anti-Assad position of the USA is based on
geopolitical aspects. An Alawi and Shia-dominated Syria provided an
independent policy based on cooperation with Shia Iran and Russia to
some extent. Therefore, overthrowing Assad will lead to a weakening
of Iran's positions in the Middle East, as well as Russia's positions.
This is one of the main aims of American foreign policy. At the
same time, the US is seriously trying to build relations with
the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Syria. But it is too early to
speak about the replacement of Assad by the Muslim Brotherhood. The
information war around Syria should be taken into consideration, as
many events are exaggerated artificially. Assad manages to maintain
the government structure and control over the army. It is obvious
that the West and some Arab countries won't have a legitimate right to
interfere in Syrian affairs. The riots in Syria have internal economic
reasons of course. And if the regime of Assad falls, the political
structure of post-Assad Syria will include the Muslim Brotherhood
and representatives of the pro-Western Syrian intelligentsia living
in the West today.
- Do you think the US strives to overthrow Assad as part of a chain
leading to the overthrow of the Ayatollahs' in Iran?
- The US supports the rebels in destabilizing the situation in Syria
because they strive to eliminate the Ayatollah's power in Iran. Today
the US, Israel, and some Arab countries are providing a policy of
isolating Iran. Meanwhile, the intelligence services of Israel and
the US have no evidence that Iran is enriching uranium for military
purposes. Overthrowing the Syrian government will play a big role in
isolating Iran.