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RUSSIA LAUNCHES PROJECTS OF STABILITY IN THE CAUCASUS. PART 2
Vestnik Kavkaza
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/30706.html
Aug 28 2012
Russia
Author: Voice of Russia
Alexei Vlasov, editor-in-chief of VK, spoke to Igor Panarin on the
domestic political situation in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia, as
well as the factors that influence the stability in the South Caucasus.
Continuance
Panarin: A year ago, in the studio we discussed not only the problems
of Georgia, but also the four-year armed conflict in the Caucasus;
it is the problem of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Now elections in
Georgia are about to be held. First, the situation in Georgia is
quite complicated. The question is whether the current regime of
Saakashvili will be in power, or maybe it will be dismantled, and we
should expect for some kind of internal political turmoil?
Vlasov: I think that in the short term it will be in power. This is
my assessment.
Panarin: This is an important point of view, because there are
different opinions.
Vlasov: Bidzina Ivanishvili is a serious competitor both in the
parliamentary opposition and as a candidate who is able to unite the
opposition. But there are also two things. First: he is always put a
spoke in the wheel, that is, everything is done in order to discredit
the oligarch.
Panarin: So is the campaign launched?
Vlasov: It is in full swing. This is an internal matter of the
advisers of Ivanishvili, but there is too much populism. He tries to
beat Saakashvili in his field. Technologically, it's unbelievable. He
has his own media channels - it is good. All the professionals in
the field of information warfare consider this to be the worst of
all the moves that can only be made.
Panarin: Is it already made?
Vlasov: It has in fact been made, and the populism of Ivanishvili
this spreading in different social strata is widely perceived as
Saakashvili without Saakashvili.
Panarin: Okay, that is, in fact, he is Saakashvili-2.
Vlasov: And in this case, is there any choice?
Panarin: That is, he does not offer any model, does he?
Vlasov: He believes that with Saakashvili Georgia chooses a wrong way;
this way, sooner or later, will lead to the collapse of the country,
which, in my view, is close to reality. But then we must also show
an alternative. Very strong move on the part of Saakashvili is the
appointment of a new prime minister, Vano Merabishvili. He is one of
the most popular politicians in Georgia. Of course, he concedes tothe
patriarch. But, generally, he is unrivaled. Yes, a lot of Georgians
hate him. They believe that he has rigidly treated a lot of people
who have been kicked out.
He's a very tough politician. He reformed the MIA and cleaned the
"Augean stables" which were there before 2007-2008. By the way,
he's one of the few people who questioned the action in August 2008
at the historic meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers of Georgia.
Panarin: That is, is he quite reasonable?
Vlasov: I would say he is pragmatic.
Panarin: Did he understand that there were no prospects?
Vlasov: I do not know the psychology of his decision making, but,
apparently, he believed that not everything was counted, and he
was right.
Panarin: Now let us move away from the internal Georgian problem to
the problem of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. At the History Faculty of
Moscow State University you studied post-Soviet global problems for
a long time. Now, as far as I know, you want to focus on the Caucasus.
Why do you want to do this? Is the reason for it your love of the
Caucasus or the study of the dynamics of weak links of post-Soviet
space?
Vlasov: Indeed, it is about creating a non-profit partnership - the
Center of Political Studies "North-South", which will develop public
relations with the countries of the South Caucasus.
Panarin: Are we talking about social, cultural ties?
Vlasov: That's right. This is a humanitarian, expert project. Of
course, we in Russia are concerned about the attempts by external
actors to create problems for Russian businesses and Russian
universities in the South Caucasus area. In order to develop our
strategy, we need the support of the public; that is, our policy in
the South Caucasus should be a public project.
Panarin: It should be a common project.
Vlasov: Absolutely. Nongovernmental diplomacy must evolve, and one of
the missions, one of the challenges posed by the Center of Political
Studies is doing this work. Returning to the topic you raised, I have
to say that South Ossetia and Abkhazia had a difficult year.
Panarin: It was very difficult. A year ago, we predicted the number of
risks. It is a pity that decision-makers did not listen carefully to
us and did not learn anything. Of course, the year was very difficult,
and in this sense, which conclusions do we have to draw in order to
prevent further collapses?
Vlasov: It is unacceptable that officials from various agencies fight
at the international arena.
Panarin: Do you mean domestic officials?
Vlasov: Yes. This is not serious. There can be a mistake. But if
you work for a general idea, strategy, it is unacceptable to do such
things in a public space.
Panarin: If we look at the situation, it is still relatively stable
at the moment. Can it be said that the statehood of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia is not in danger, or there are some threats to it?
Vlasov: There are some risks, but they will be seen, most likely,
during the electoral period. If I am not mistaken, the parliamentary
elections in Ossetia will be in 2014, and I think they will not
be easy.
Panarin: Will they be difficult against the backdrop of the previous
difficult period?
Vlasov: It is very important that the head of South Ossetia, Tibilov,
is taking the right steps.
Panarin: Does he balance the situation?
Vlasov: He balances basing on the former opposition and not completely
removing a part of the people from the surrounding of the former
President Kokoity from the political game. I know that one of the
presidential candidates, Bibilov, has started a new party project. It
is not necessary to stop people.
Panarin: So did the head of state find the direction which is
relatively right?
Vlasov: Yes, and it must be supported; this should not cause problems
between different offices.
Panarin: Let's return to Abkhazia. There was also a rather difficult
situation. The Sochi Olympics is coming, the term is relatively small,
and the security and stability in Abkhazia is important.
Vlasov: Our partners from Sukhumi say that, in general, the situation
is complicated, but it is rather stable. After the attempt at Ankvab
it was brought under control. The apparent risk is that there may
be a confrontation between the legislative and executive power in
the republic.
Panarin: Can it occur inside the Abkhaz political space?
Vlasov: This is a system; by the way, I see some evidence of its
maturity in this.
Panarin: On the one hand, this is a positive indicator that each of
the branches of government is developing its own interests.
Vlasov: This is an opportunity for more effective competition of the
branches and for their evolution, but this is also a risk.
Panarin: It is the risk of losing the control over the situation.
Vlasov: The Caucasian political mentality is a little bit different
than, say, Russian or Ukrainian.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Vestnik Kavkaza
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/30706.html
Aug 28 2012
Russia
Author: Voice of Russia
Alexei Vlasov, editor-in-chief of VK, spoke to Igor Panarin on the
domestic political situation in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia, as
well as the factors that influence the stability in the South Caucasus.
Continuance
Panarin: A year ago, in the studio we discussed not only the problems
of Georgia, but also the four-year armed conflict in the Caucasus;
it is the problem of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Now elections in
Georgia are about to be held. First, the situation in Georgia is
quite complicated. The question is whether the current regime of
Saakashvili will be in power, or maybe it will be dismantled, and we
should expect for some kind of internal political turmoil?
Vlasov: I think that in the short term it will be in power. This is
my assessment.
Panarin: This is an important point of view, because there are
different opinions.
Vlasov: Bidzina Ivanishvili is a serious competitor both in the
parliamentary opposition and as a candidate who is able to unite the
opposition. But there are also two things. First: he is always put a
spoke in the wheel, that is, everything is done in order to discredit
the oligarch.
Panarin: So is the campaign launched?
Vlasov: It is in full swing. This is an internal matter of the
advisers of Ivanishvili, but there is too much populism. He tries to
beat Saakashvili in his field. Technologically, it's unbelievable. He
has his own media channels - it is good. All the professionals in
the field of information warfare consider this to be the worst of
all the moves that can only be made.
Panarin: Is it already made?
Vlasov: It has in fact been made, and the populism of Ivanishvili
this spreading in different social strata is widely perceived as
Saakashvili without Saakashvili.
Panarin: Okay, that is, in fact, he is Saakashvili-2.
Vlasov: And in this case, is there any choice?
Panarin: That is, he does not offer any model, does he?
Vlasov: He believes that with Saakashvili Georgia chooses a wrong way;
this way, sooner or later, will lead to the collapse of the country,
which, in my view, is close to reality. But then we must also show
an alternative. Very strong move on the part of Saakashvili is the
appointment of a new prime minister, Vano Merabishvili. He is one of
the most popular politicians in Georgia. Of course, he concedes tothe
patriarch. But, generally, he is unrivaled. Yes, a lot of Georgians
hate him. They believe that he has rigidly treated a lot of people
who have been kicked out.
He's a very tough politician. He reformed the MIA and cleaned the
"Augean stables" which were there before 2007-2008. By the way,
he's one of the few people who questioned the action in August 2008
at the historic meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers of Georgia.
Panarin: That is, is he quite reasonable?
Vlasov: I would say he is pragmatic.
Panarin: Did he understand that there were no prospects?
Vlasov: I do not know the psychology of his decision making, but,
apparently, he believed that not everything was counted, and he
was right.
Panarin: Now let us move away from the internal Georgian problem to
the problem of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. At the History Faculty of
Moscow State University you studied post-Soviet global problems for
a long time. Now, as far as I know, you want to focus on the Caucasus.
Why do you want to do this? Is the reason for it your love of the
Caucasus or the study of the dynamics of weak links of post-Soviet
space?
Vlasov: Indeed, it is about creating a non-profit partnership - the
Center of Political Studies "North-South", which will develop public
relations with the countries of the South Caucasus.
Panarin: Are we talking about social, cultural ties?
Vlasov: That's right. This is a humanitarian, expert project. Of
course, we in Russia are concerned about the attempts by external
actors to create problems for Russian businesses and Russian
universities in the South Caucasus area. In order to develop our
strategy, we need the support of the public; that is, our policy in
the South Caucasus should be a public project.
Panarin: It should be a common project.
Vlasov: Absolutely. Nongovernmental diplomacy must evolve, and one of
the missions, one of the challenges posed by the Center of Political
Studies is doing this work. Returning to the topic you raised, I have
to say that South Ossetia and Abkhazia had a difficult year.
Panarin: It was very difficult. A year ago, we predicted the number of
risks. It is a pity that decision-makers did not listen carefully to
us and did not learn anything. Of course, the year was very difficult,
and in this sense, which conclusions do we have to draw in order to
prevent further collapses?
Vlasov: It is unacceptable that officials from various agencies fight
at the international arena.
Panarin: Do you mean domestic officials?
Vlasov: Yes. This is not serious. There can be a mistake. But if
you work for a general idea, strategy, it is unacceptable to do such
things in a public space.
Panarin: If we look at the situation, it is still relatively stable
at the moment. Can it be said that the statehood of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia is not in danger, or there are some threats to it?
Vlasov: There are some risks, but they will be seen, most likely,
during the electoral period. If I am not mistaken, the parliamentary
elections in Ossetia will be in 2014, and I think they will not
be easy.
Panarin: Will they be difficult against the backdrop of the previous
difficult period?
Vlasov: It is very important that the head of South Ossetia, Tibilov,
is taking the right steps.
Panarin: Does he balance the situation?
Vlasov: He balances basing on the former opposition and not completely
removing a part of the people from the surrounding of the former
President Kokoity from the political game. I know that one of the
presidential candidates, Bibilov, has started a new party project. It
is not necessary to stop people.
Panarin: So did the head of state find the direction which is
relatively right?
Vlasov: Yes, and it must be supported; this should not cause problems
between different offices.
Panarin: Let's return to Abkhazia. There was also a rather difficult
situation. The Sochi Olympics is coming, the term is relatively small,
and the security and stability in Abkhazia is important.
Vlasov: Our partners from Sukhumi say that, in general, the situation
is complicated, but it is rather stable. After the attempt at Ankvab
it was brought under control. The apparent risk is that there may
be a confrontation between the legislative and executive power in
the republic.
Panarin: Can it occur inside the Abkhaz political space?
Vlasov: This is a system; by the way, I see some evidence of its
maturity in this.
Panarin: On the one hand, this is a positive indicator that each of
the branches of government is developing its own interests.
Vlasov: This is an opportunity for more effective competition of the
branches and for their evolution, but this is also a risk.
Panarin: It is the risk of losing the control over the situation.
Vlasov: The Caucasian political mentality is a little bit different
than, say, Russian or Ukrainian.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress