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Armenia's 'Symbolic' Autumn

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  • Armenia's 'Symbolic' Autumn

    ARMENIA'S 'SYMBOLIC' AUTUMN
    HAKOB BADALYAN

    Story from Lragir.am News:
    http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments27238.html
    Published: 17:32:11 - 30/08/2012

    CSTO reported that Armenia has requested this organization to
    postpone the exercise of the CSTO Fast Reaction Forces initially
    scheduled on September 3-8. Armenia referred to technical reasons. In
    addition, Armenia requested to postpone for 10 days. The exercise
    was re-scheduled on September 15-19.

    Along with the CSTO, the Armenian MFA issued a press release which
    disclosed the "technical reason". On September 5-6 NATO Secretary
    General will visit Armenia. Were the exercise not postponed, the
    large-scale CSTO exercise would overlap with Rasmussen's visit.

    In any case, the situation would be interesting, if not awkward. It
    is interesting who first complained of this coincidence and
    whose complaint was taken into consideration by Armenia. Was it
    Rasmussen's request who said he would not skip Armenia during his
    regional visit if the exercise was not postponed? Perhaps it would
    be something unpleasant if he skipped Armenia during his regional
    visit. Although, even if the visit were not regional, in the current
    stage of improvement of relations with the west official Yerevan
    would not refuse the Secretary General of NATO which is one of the
    pillars of the Western politics.

    On the other hand, what would be there if Russia declined the request
    to postpone the exercise and insisted on the initial schedule? Could
    Armenia enter into a conflict? Perhaps not. So, the division of CSTO
    and NATO was at least the wish of both Brussels and Moscow therefore
    CSTO honored the request of Armenia and did not insist on the initially
    established timing.

    Moreover, it is possible that Moscow has initiated division of the
    exercise and the visit of NATO Secretary General.

    By the way, it should be noted that the exercise will be held
    simultaneously with CSTO Summit, and Rasmussen's visit would overlap
    with this event as well.

    Armenia's request to postpone CSTO events would hardly have other
    more significant reasons though Putin's schedule could be one of such
    reasons. Putin was expected to visit Armenia during the exercise. It
    is possible that the time was not convenient for him so Armenia agreed
    to postpone the event for Putin's visit.

    And Armenia usually adjusts its schedule when such issues arise. For
    example, he had a meeting with Putin on August 8, in the middle of
    his holiday. It also means that Putin does not adjust its schedule
    to Armenia's convenience.

    Hence, autumn in Armenia will begin not only with local elections full
    of domestic intrigues but also a broad and serious foreign political
    layer. In addition, Rasmussen comes to Armenia for an unexpected
    visit. At least, it was not planned beforehand. The exercise had
    been planned a long time ago, while his visit was not even hinted,
    and if the exercise is postponed only three-four days before its
    starting day, it means Rasmussen's visit was rather unexpected or
    other timing for the exercise would have been chosen.

    Finally, a more interesting option is possible. It is possible that
    Rasmussen comes to Armenia to have the exercise of CSTO postponed for
    at least a few days. It could be something symbolic in the current
    stage of competition between the West and Russia.

    Serzh Sargsyan's decision not to attend NAM in Tehran appears under a
    new light. Sargsyan did not announce about his intention to participate
    but at the same time he did not refute news that came in July. In
    this meaning, his decision not to leave for Tehran was unexpected.

    It is possible that this decision, as well as the request to postpone
    CSTO exercise, was reasoned by reluctance to hinder the visit of CSTO
    Secretary General.


    From: Baghdasarian
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