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  • The Turkish Miscalculations: He Who Cooks Poison, Poison Shall He Ea

    THE TURKISH MISCALCULATIONS: HE WHO COOKS POISON, POISON SHALL HE EAT

    Al-Thawrah (Government owned)
    Aug 27 2012
    Syria

    by Dr Amin Muhammad Hutayt, a Syrian university professor.

    When Turkey decided to assume regional leadership of the
    neo-colonialism under the title of "neo-Ottoman" ideology or modern
    Islamic caliphate, it thought that the road was open for it in view
    of the strategic Arab vacuum, the Western embargo imposed on Iran,
    and the decline in the Israeli role or capability, coupled with
    volatility in regional circumstances that would prevent Israel from
    playing the role it played when Shim'on Peres initiated the great or
    new Middle East concept, which, according to his theory, is based on
    "Zionist ideology" and Arab money.

    Turkey thought that the best way to assume a Turkish leadership of
    the region first and the Muslim world second could be done through
    its economic capabilities and relations with more than one nation
    in an independent state in Central Asia. This is in addition to its
    Islamic history and present situation, which showed the ability of
    the Islamists in it to tighten their grip on the state and skip the
    obstacle of the army, which is the guard of Ataturk's secularism.

    Bearing this in mind, Turkey - the Justice and Development Party -
    launched the "zero problem" strategy, thinking that it would knock
    down borders with neighbours and overcome the tragic history with more
    than one people and state in the region, and that this would enable
    it to move quickly towards the new imperial dream. It then "stormed"
    the Palestinian issue, which is considered the central issue of the
    Arabs and Muslims (I mean the peoples and not regimes that guard the
    West and Israel), and proceeded towards establishing or preparing to
    establish strategic relations with countries in the region, beginning
    with Syria, the closest neighbour that has a distinguished status.

    Davutoglu, the architect of the "zero problem" strategy, viewed Syria
    as a safe doorway to Turkey's strategic depth (in the book he issued
    in 2001), and Turkey cannot realize its dreams except by having a
    special position in Syria.

    Here we must note that Syria has responded to the new Turkish policy
    and felt very comfortable to establish strategic relations with
    it under the new approach - although Turkey is a NATO member state
    that has special ties with Israel - because such relations will in
    the minimum neutralize the Turkish force in the conflict with the
    Zionist enemy, in addition to the possibility of benefiting from
    it in more than one job that Turkey can do within the framework of
    the conflict, the least of which was backing away from its blatant
    support for Israel.

    But Turkey was not honest or sincere in its efforts. It harboured the
    opposite of what it exhibited because as soon as the Western aggression
    against Syria was launched in implementation of a US plan based on the
    "smart soft power strategy," Turkey began to play the role of field
    director of the aggression. It began its intervention by playing the
    role of "teacher" of Syria and allowed itself to address Syria with a
    colonial and arrogant language. It acted as if Syria was still one of
    the states of the Ottoman Empire. Here came the first sign of Turkish
    miscalculation when the neo-Ottoman tendency collided with a Syrian
    Arab vigour that prevented the revival of the past and stressed the
    sovereignty and dignity of Syria. This reflected on Turkey in the form
    of Turkish outrage and hatred against Syria and that was translated
    immediately in the form of Turkish engagement in field work against it.

    During the field work phase, Turkey played the role of an interferer
    conspiring against Syria on two levels:

    On the political level, it sponsored a gathering of foreign
    intelligence agents and groups of people harbouring grudge or striving
    for power and established for them a council that was falsely called a
    "Syrian National Council," which was actually meant to serve foreign
    interests in Syria. Turkey thought that its fabricated council would
    substitute the legitimate authority in Syria, and here was the second
    miscalculation because in the same way as this council was established
    as a puppet, it continued to be a puppet that kept eroding to the
    extent that it became a stinking corpse and a burden on its makers,
    including Turkey in the forefront.

    On the military level, Turkey has turned itself into a base for
    terrorist mobilization and action against Syria as a prelude to the
    implementation of a broad international operation spearheaded by Turkey
    so that it would harvest the gains - as it thought - and Syria would
    then become a back garden for the revamped Ottoman Empire. And this
    was a miscalculation in a new form because international military
    action was confirmed impossible and talk about it was only a waste
    of time, something which made Turkey focus on an internal military
    action that is implemented with criminal and terrorist tools.

    Turkey pinned great hopes on terrorism against Syria and imagined that
    Syria would fall within weeks and the doors of Damascus would be opened
    to the new Ottoman sultan. That was another Turkish miscalculation
    because Syria with all its official and civil national components
    stood firm and broke the terrorist tide, something which placed it
    before a bitter reality it had apparently not anticipated.

    Turkey thought that the defence practised by Syria and its coherent
    regional alliance within the axis of resistance, which is consistent
    with an emerging international front, would not have the strength
    to confront and at best not burn the Turkish fingers with its fire,
    and here lies the most serious Turkish miscalculation because the
    field and theatre acted against Turkey and its dreams. Here we will
    stop at the following basic elements:

    1. Turkey is unable to win the terrorist battle, in which it and
    the front of aggression against Syria were involved, and there is an
    implicit Turkish conviction that the hopes it pinned on toppling the
    Syrian regime were a futile dream and hopes impossible to be achieved
    because the Syrian people alone are the ones to decide for themselves.

    2. Turkey is unable to mount a direct military intervention with
    its military forces to make up for its failure. Turkey knows that
    everything it says about safe zones, humanitarian corridors, buffer
    zones, and other such things is based on the idea of mounting foreign
    military intervention in Syria. All these things are impossible to
    implement due to Syrian solidity, Iranian firmness, and firm Russian
    rejection of such an intervention even if this leads to a comprehensive
    international military confrontation. Turkey and its allies are not
    prepared for that.

    3. There is a serious and real Turkish fear of the future of the
    terrorist action it led against Syria under US supervision and
    guidance, and here we remember the phenomenon of the "Arab Afghans,"
    who became a burden and a problem for the countries from which they
    set out to fight the Soviet Union. As soon as the Soviet troops
    left Afghanistan, these turned into "unemployed fighters" and their
    countries began to feel the threat they posed. Turkey today is not
    far from this. Therefore, Turkey hastened to seek the help of the
    United States. Contrary to rumours that the recent military meeting
    between the two countries was held to prepare plans for a military
    intervention in Syria, it was held to prepare security plans to defend
    Turkey, which is afraid of counterattacks from the Syrian castle,
    which withstood the terrorist and hostile hurricane.

    4. Turkey is scared about the opening of files that are about to
    explode in its face although it tried to conceal this in the context
    of the so-called "zero problems" policy, which has turned into a
    "zero friends" policy. The most dangerous thing here is that the
    renewal of hostilities is more closely connected to peoples than
    regimes. We will mention here the four basic files affecting the
    essence of the Turkish entity and haunting the Turks:

    A. The sectarian file: Turkey thought that starting a sectarian
    fire in Syria will burn only Syria, forgetting that its community
    is ideologically and religiously heterogeneous and that geographic
    proximity makes fire in a neighbouring country inevitably spread to
    its house and this is what Turkey has started to feel.

    B. The national file: Turkey thought it has enduring power to prevent
    the painful Kurdish move against it, and this is another aspect of
    miscalculation because the Kurdish move, which has reached a painful
    and effective level, has started to haunt the Turks and force them
    to seriously reconsider the whole file.

    C. The political file: Turkey thought that its reliance on the NATO
    will enable it to overcome the positions adopted by regional countries
    and enable it to impose policies that are fit for it, but it found that
    it was slowly getting itself in a fatal political isolation. The ones
    on whose friendship it was counting in its aggressive policy against
    Syria are now moving away from it for fear of its ambitions, and the
    ones in whose enmity it found a benefit because it was able to crush
    them and dictate its orders on them, demonstrated such steadfastness
    and strength that shocked it. It has thus become a country with a
    "zero friends."

    D. The security file: Despite Turkey's denial of decline in Turkish
    security, this has become a painful reality, especially for economists
    and more specifically those working in the field of tourism. During
    the past six months, Turkey lost more than 50 per cent of its regular
    revenues.

    In view of all this, Turkey is now panting after the United States and
    begging it to pull it out of the quagmire it entered because it did not
    only lose in the aggressive attack on Syria and did not only expose its
    reality and the falsehood of its claims, but also it is not sure if it
    can protect the cards it has in its hands. Demonstrations in Antioch,
    Armenian claims, Kurdish attacks, and the voices of the Turkish
    opposition and the Turkish political parties' objection to Erdogan's
    policy, in addition to the regional countries' lack of confidence in
    it or reluctance to deal safely with it, are accumulating to generate
    a hurricane, the winds of which will not go in the direction desired
    by the ships of Erdogan and Davutoglu. This will remind them of the
    proverb: He who cooks poison, poison shall he eat.

    [Translated from Arabic]

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