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WHAT REALLY HAPPENED? AZERI-HUNGARIAN NEGOTIATIONS
http://hungarianspectrum.wordpress.com/
September 3, 2012
Ever since Magyar Nemzet received a facsimile of the Azeri promises
concerning Ramil Safarov's continued prison sentence, people in the
opposition press kept asking why the Hungarian government was silent
on the issue. If the Azeris went back on their word, why don't the
Hungarians protest and condemn the action of Azerbaijan?
Late yesterday afternoon there was a belated protest from the foreign
ministry. The Azeri ambassador was told that the Hungarian government
disapproves of his country's handling of Safarov's case because "it
is contrary to the promises given to Hungary by the undersecretary of
the Ministry of Justice of Azerbaijan." But the foreign ministry's
protest was phony at best, and it is clear from the ambassador's
reaction that the Azeris didn't take the protest very seriously
either. The government of Azerbaijan had no reason to apologize. It
hadn't transgressed any international law. And Hungary had no reason to
protest; the protest was merely part of a cover-up of the real story.
To my knowledge it was Péter Balázs, foreign minister in the Bajnai
government, who first pointed out in an interview on ATV's Start
program this morning that the August 15 letter sent to the Hungarian
Ministry of Administration and Justice didn't include any guarantee,
"and if the Hungarians saw any guarantee in this text they have
problems with reading comprehension." I assume that Balázs spoke
with an edge and didn't intend to accuse the government of either
naivete or stupidity. The text of the August 15th letter was written
as a result of a prior agreement between the negotiating partners. The
Hungarians didn't ask for anything more than they got.
So, let's go back to see what was promised in the letter signed by
Vilayat Zahirov, deputy minister of justice of Azerbaijan. It promised
to adhere to Art.9 ¶1 of the Convention on the Transfer of Sentenced
Persons of 1983. This passage states: "The competent authorities
of the administering State shall: a. continue the enforcement of
the sentence immediately or through a court or administrative order,
under the conditions set out in Article 10, or b. convert the sentence,
through a judicial or administrative procedure, into a decision of that
State, thereby substituting for the sanction imposed in the sentencing
State a sanction prescribed by the law of the administering State for
the same offence." But there is another article, no. 12, entitled
"Pardon, amnesty, commutation." It is brief: "Each party may grant
pardon, amnesty or commutation of the sentence in accordance with
its Constitution or other laws."
In conclusion, Azerbaijan is innocent in this ugly affair. They didn't
promise not to pardon Ramil Safarov. The only guilty one is Hungary
who wittingly assisted Azerbaijan in this dirty business. They had
to know that the convicted murderer had become a national hero in
Azerbaijan right after he committed that unspeakable murder in 2004.
Surely, they also had to know that the Azeri government had no
intention of keeping Safarov in jail and that more than likely he
would receive a pardon from the president of Azerbaijan.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Hungarian request of August 8
specifically mentioned that a reference to Art.9 ¶1 would do. At
the very least the negotiating partners had to agree at one of their
several meetings that the Azeris' so-called guarantee would focus on
Art.9 ¶1. That would be enough for a cover story. They could blithely
forget about Art.12.
Viktor Orbán and Ilham Aliyev: "and with this ... in his sleep"
Montage that appeared on EgyenlÅ' TV This morning at last Viktor
Orbán said a few words about the Azeri-Armenian-Hungarian crisis
that erupted on Friday. Although he didn't look exactly calm and
rested, he tried to give the impression of a man who doesn't care
what's going on with regard to his decision to release the Azeri
"national hero" or the consequences of this decision. He tried to
look cool and give the impression of a man who handles "everything
according to its significance."
The indication was that this affair is simply not important enough
to worry about. The Armenian government's decision to break off
diplomatic relations with Hungary also didn't seem to bother the
Hungarian prime minister.
Among the opposition parties it was the Demokratikus KoalÃció that
formulated the clearest condemnation of the Hungarian government's
role in this crisis. It was also DK that outlined the most likely
scenario. Csaba Molnár, the second in charge in DK, summarized the
party's opinion this way. "After a day of silence the government
began to lie." By dragging out the August 15th letter of the
deputy minister of justice of Azerbaijan they kept claiming that
"Azerbaijan conned Hungary." But nothing of the sort happened. Viktor
Orbán knowingly left a loophole for the Azeris by not insisting on
guarantees concerning a possible pardon. Surely, Molnár continued,
"the experienced and talented lawyers in the ministry of justice were
fully aware of Art.12 of the Convention."
So, "the whole responsibility for this fiasco lies entirely with
Viktor Orbán and his government."
The deal, it seems, was struck on the strength of a promise by the
Azeris that Azerbaijan would purchase 2-3 billion euros' worth of
Hungarian government bonds. The first news about this possibility
appeared in FigyelÅ', a financial paper. On August 23 the paper
reported that "a source close to the economy ministry of György
Matolcsy" said that the negotiations with Azerbaijan includes the
possibility of floating Hungarian government bonds in Azeri currency,
the manat. The amount received from Azerbaijan would cover the
greater portion of Hungary's sovereign debt for this year. However,
István Madár, an economist working for Portfolio, has his doubts
that anything will come of the deal. He was told by an expert close to
the government a few months back when Hungary made a futile attempt
to tap Arab funds that "you can hardly expect a country to invest
in your government securities before establishing trade relations,
relations between parent companies and subsidiaries and personal
business experiences..... Azerbaijan eerily resembles a country with
which Hungary has no meaningful trade relations."
According to Madár, Azerbaijan can easily go back on its word unless
"honor will rule over rationality in President Aliyev's mind." As far
as the costs and benefits of the case, he continued, "there is a good
chance that yet another attempt at an unorthodox way of debt financing
has gone up in flames, and that Hungary's perception worsened even
further in the eyes of the country's creditors."
A Turkish bank has confirmed that it is in fact preparing the manat
bond issuance. The only question is whether there will be a ready
buyer.
After DK's comments on the Azeri-Hungarian deal were released, Attila
Mesterházy, chairman of the Hungarian Socialist Party, also spoke. He
asked twelve questions from Viktor Orbán. 1. Did the question of
Ramil Safarov's release come up during the talks between the Hungarian
prime minister and Ilhan Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan? 2. Does
Novruz Mammadov, the foreign relations chief of the office of the
Azeri president, tell the truth when he says that negotiations between
Hungary and Azerbaijan have been going on for at least a year? 3. What
were the new facts on the basis of which the government decided
to change the opinion of the former governments about the release
of Ramil Safarov? 4. Did Azerbaijan offer anything for the release
of Ramil Safarov? 5. Is it true that the Azeri government offered
the purchase of 2-3 billion euros' worth of Hungarian government
bonds? Is there any connection between the offering and the release
of the murderer? 6. Did the Hungarian government study the reality of
the Azeri guarantee that the murderer will not be pardoned after his
return? 7. Did you [Viktor Orbán] receive any objections against the
extradition from either the foreign ministry or from the ministry of
administration? 8. Why was the government silent on the topic for 48
hours after the news broke? 9. Was the final decision yours or that
of your deputy, Tibor Navracsics? 10. Did you anticipate the domestic
and international scandal caused by extradition and did you think of
the potential damage caused by it? 11. Did you think of the potential
national security threat as a result of this decision? 12. Given the
situation do you [Orbán] contemplate the dismissal of Deputy Prime
Minister Tibor Navracsics and Foreign Minister János Martonyi?
Finally, Mesterházy called on Orbán to apologize to the relatives
of the murdered Gurgen Margaryan.
In the past Tibor Navracsics had the reputation of being a moderate
man in the the top Fidesz leadership. There was also talk about his
disapproval of certain aspects of government policies as dictated by
Viktor Orbán. I for one never thought that anyone who got as far as
Navracsics did in the Orbán administration could offer a significantly
better alternative to Orbán. And indeed. After DK released its
conclusions concerning the Azeri-Hungarian deal, the ministry of
administration and justice released a communique claiming that the
Azeri letter was a sufficient guarantee as far as the Hungarians were
concerned. After all, Azerbaijan is a member of the Council of Europe.
This story will go on and on.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
http://hungarianspectrum.wordpress.com/
September 3, 2012
Ever since Magyar Nemzet received a facsimile of the Azeri promises
concerning Ramil Safarov's continued prison sentence, people in the
opposition press kept asking why the Hungarian government was silent
on the issue. If the Azeris went back on their word, why don't the
Hungarians protest and condemn the action of Azerbaijan?
Late yesterday afternoon there was a belated protest from the foreign
ministry. The Azeri ambassador was told that the Hungarian government
disapproves of his country's handling of Safarov's case because "it
is contrary to the promises given to Hungary by the undersecretary of
the Ministry of Justice of Azerbaijan." But the foreign ministry's
protest was phony at best, and it is clear from the ambassador's
reaction that the Azeris didn't take the protest very seriously
either. The government of Azerbaijan had no reason to apologize. It
hadn't transgressed any international law. And Hungary had no reason to
protest; the protest was merely part of a cover-up of the real story.
To my knowledge it was Péter Balázs, foreign minister in the Bajnai
government, who first pointed out in an interview on ATV's Start
program this morning that the August 15 letter sent to the Hungarian
Ministry of Administration and Justice didn't include any guarantee,
"and if the Hungarians saw any guarantee in this text they have
problems with reading comprehension." I assume that Balázs spoke
with an edge and didn't intend to accuse the government of either
naivete or stupidity. The text of the August 15th letter was written
as a result of a prior agreement between the negotiating partners. The
Hungarians didn't ask for anything more than they got.
So, let's go back to see what was promised in the letter signed by
Vilayat Zahirov, deputy minister of justice of Azerbaijan. It promised
to adhere to Art.9 ¶1 of the Convention on the Transfer of Sentenced
Persons of 1983. This passage states: "The competent authorities
of the administering State shall: a. continue the enforcement of
the sentence immediately or through a court or administrative order,
under the conditions set out in Article 10, or b. convert the sentence,
through a judicial or administrative procedure, into a decision of that
State, thereby substituting for the sanction imposed in the sentencing
State a sanction prescribed by the law of the administering State for
the same offence." But there is another article, no. 12, entitled
"Pardon, amnesty, commutation." It is brief: "Each party may grant
pardon, amnesty or commutation of the sentence in accordance with
its Constitution or other laws."
In conclusion, Azerbaijan is innocent in this ugly affair. They didn't
promise not to pardon Ramil Safarov. The only guilty one is Hungary
who wittingly assisted Azerbaijan in this dirty business. They had
to know that the convicted murderer had become a national hero in
Azerbaijan right after he committed that unspeakable murder in 2004.
Surely, they also had to know that the Azeri government had no
intention of keeping Safarov in jail and that more than likely he
would receive a pardon from the president of Azerbaijan.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Hungarian request of August 8
specifically mentioned that a reference to Art.9 ¶1 would do. At
the very least the negotiating partners had to agree at one of their
several meetings that the Azeris' so-called guarantee would focus on
Art.9 ¶1. That would be enough for a cover story. They could blithely
forget about Art.12.
Viktor Orbán and Ilham Aliyev: "and with this ... in his sleep"
Montage that appeared on EgyenlÅ' TV This morning at last Viktor
Orbán said a few words about the Azeri-Armenian-Hungarian crisis
that erupted on Friday. Although he didn't look exactly calm and
rested, he tried to give the impression of a man who doesn't care
what's going on with regard to his decision to release the Azeri
"national hero" or the consequences of this decision. He tried to
look cool and give the impression of a man who handles "everything
according to its significance."
The indication was that this affair is simply not important enough
to worry about. The Armenian government's decision to break off
diplomatic relations with Hungary also didn't seem to bother the
Hungarian prime minister.
Among the opposition parties it was the Demokratikus KoalÃció that
formulated the clearest condemnation of the Hungarian government's
role in this crisis. It was also DK that outlined the most likely
scenario. Csaba Molnár, the second in charge in DK, summarized the
party's opinion this way. "After a day of silence the government
began to lie." By dragging out the August 15th letter of the
deputy minister of justice of Azerbaijan they kept claiming that
"Azerbaijan conned Hungary." But nothing of the sort happened. Viktor
Orbán knowingly left a loophole for the Azeris by not insisting on
guarantees concerning a possible pardon. Surely, Molnár continued,
"the experienced and talented lawyers in the ministry of justice were
fully aware of Art.12 of the Convention."
So, "the whole responsibility for this fiasco lies entirely with
Viktor Orbán and his government."
The deal, it seems, was struck on the strength of a promise by the
Azeris that Azerbaijan would purchase 2-3 billion euros' worth of
Hungarian government bonds. The first news about this possibility
appeared in FigyelÅ', a financial paper. On August 23 the paper
reported that "a source close to the economy ministry of György
Matolcsy" said that the negotiations with Azerbaijan includes the
possibility of floating Hungarian government bonds in Azeri currency,
the manat. The amount received from Azerbaijan would cover the
greater portion of Hungary's sovereign debt for this year. However,
István Madár, an economist working for Portfolio, has his doubts
that anything will come of the deal. He was told by an expert close to
the government a few months back when Hungary made a futile attempt
to tap Arab funds that "you can hardly expect a country to invest
in your government securities before establishing trade relations,
relations between parent companies and subsidiaries and personal
business experiences..... Azerbaijan eerily resembles a country with
which Hungary has no meaningful trade relations."
According to Madár, Azerbaijan can easily go back on its word unless
"honor will rule over rationality in President Aliyev's mind." As far
as the costs and benefits of the case, he continued, "there is a good
chance that yet another attempt at an unorthodox way of debt financing
has gone up in flames, and that Hungary's perception worsened even
further in the eyes of the country's creditors."
A Turkish bank has confirmed that it is in fact preparing the manat
bond issuance. The only question is whether there will be a ready
buyer.
After DK's comments on the Azeri-Hungarian deal were released, Attila
Mesterházy, chairman of the Hungarian Socialist Party, also spoke. He
asked twelve questions from Viktor Orbán. 1. Did the question of
Ramil Safarov's release come up during the talks between the Hungarian
prime minister and Ilhan Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan? 2. Does
Novruz Mammadov, the foreign relations chief of the office of the
Azeri president, tell the truth when he says that negotiations between
Hungary and Azerbaijan have been going on for at least a year? 3. What
were the new facts on the basis of which the government decided
to change the opinion of the former governments about the release
of Ramil Safarov? 4. Did Azerbaijan offer anything for the release
of Ramil Safarov? 5. Is it true that the Azeri government offered
the purchase of 2-3 billion euros' worth of Hungarian government
bonds? Is there any connection between the offering and the release
of the murderer? 6. Did the Hungarian government study the reality of
the Azeri guarantee that the murderer will not be pardoned after his
return? 7. Did you [Viktor Orbán] receive any objections against the
extradition from either the foreign ministry or from the ministry of
administration? 8. Why was the government silent on the topic for 48
hours after the news broke? 9. Was the final decision yours or that
of your deputy, Tibor Navracsics? 10. Did you anticipate the domestic
and international scandal caused by extradition and did you think of
the potential damage caused by it? 11. Did you think of the potential
national security threat as a result of this decision? 12. Given the
situation do you [Orbán] contemplate the dismissal of Deputy Prime
Minister Tibor Navracsics and Foreign Minister János Martonyi?
Finally, Mesterházy called on Orbán to apologize to the relatives
of the murdered Gurgen Margaryan.
In the past Tibor Navracsics had the reputation of being a moderate
man in the the top Fidesz leadership. There was also talk about his
disapproval of certain aspects of government policies as dictated by
Viktor Orbán. I for one never thought that anyone who got as far as
Navracsics did in the Orbán administration could offer a significantly
better alternative to Orbán. And indeed. After DK released its
conclusions concerning the Azeri-Hungarian deal, the ministry of
administration and justice released a communique claiming that the
Azeri letter was a sufficient guarantee as far as the Hungarians were
concerned. After all, Azerbaijan is a member of the Council of Europe.
This story will go on and on.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress