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VIEWPOINT: SETBACK FOR PEACE IN THE CAUCASUS
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19477043
4 September 2012 Last updated at 17:20
By Thomas de Waal Caucasus expert
Ramil Safarov, centre, walks in the Martyrs' Alley national memorial
in Baku. 31 Aug 2012 Ramil Safarov, centre, has been treated like
a national hero since returning to Azerbaijan Continue reading the
main story
RELATED STORIES
* Karabakh guns still at the ready * Country profile: Azerbaijan *
Country profile: Armenia
This is a black week for those who are seeking a peaceful settlement
of the long-running Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
On 31 August, in a deeply provocative move, Azerbaijani President
Ilham Aliev pardoned convicted murderer Ramil Safarov on his return
to Baku from a Hungarian prison.
Safarov had been attending a Nato training-course in 2004 when he
killed Armenian fellow officer Gurgen Markarian with an axe while
he slept.
Back in 2004, the brutal killing on ethnic grounds caused an inevitable
upsurge of emotion in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have been
waging a conflict in various forms over the disputed territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh since 1988.
There was an upsurge in the war of words in the media, which generally
goes further than what officials allow themselves to say.
Markarian was given a state funeral. In Azerbaijan a few members of
parliament dared to call Safarov a "hero," but many Azerbaijanis felt
ashamed at how his action reflected on their country and, mercifully,
government officials mostly kept silent.
Eight years on, that has all turned round.
This is now a full-blown state-to-state row, with as yet unknowable
consequences. For reasons that have yet to be fully explained, the
Hungarian government negotiated the extradition of Safarov to Baku
having secured an agreement, they maintained, that he would only be
eligible for parole after having served the remainder of a 25-year
prison term in an Azerbaijani jail.
Hero's welcome
Instead, Safarov was pardoned. Leaving him a free man without public
comment would have been bad enough. The Azerbaijani government went
much further than that, treating Safarov as a hero. He was given an
apartment in Baku and personally promoted to the rank of major by
the defence minister.
Every action has a reaction. Unsurprisingly, the US government and the
Russian foreign ministry reacted to the news with strong disapproval.
The spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton also
expressed alarm but stopped short of directly criticising its own
member state, Hungary. The EU already has enough problems with
controversial Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Nagorno-Karabakh soldier in 1992 Thousands died in the six-year war
over Nagorno-Karabakh that ended in 1994
As for Armenia, it appears to be close to boiling over. It has
suspended diplomatic relations with Hungary and observers of the
Karabakh negotiating process - already on the verge of failure -
are watching apprehensively for what it will do next.
The Armenian government was already telling all foreign interlocutors
how unhappy it was with the state of the peace process. There were
tough questions to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in June
as to why there was not a sharper US response to violations of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire, which are widely perceived to come
more from the Azerbaijani side.
Yerevan could now be tempted to suspend its participation in the
peace talks.
Some Armenian commentators are calling for more extreme steps such
as recognising breakaway Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh as an
independent state. There will also be the inevitable worry that a
fanatical Armenian will try to commit a revenge attack.
>From the political perspective, to call the Azerbaijani government's
actions a mistake is an understatement. It is a worrying indication
of the quality of advice that President Ilham Aliev is receiving from
his inner circle.
Over the past few years, the government in Baku has spent tens of
millions of dollars of its new oil revenues promoting the image of
Azerbaijan as a new, modernising, dynamic country. The effect has
been quite successful, with results ranging from Azerbaijan joining
the UN Security Council to Baku hosting feel-good events such as the
Eurovision Song Contest.
All that PR work now has to contend with a contrary image, of the
government welcoming home an axe-murderer.
Map locator
Sadly, the events of this week are a big boost for radicals on
both sides.
They strengthen the hands of those Armenian hardliners who say that
this proves that Azerbaijanis are barbarians who cannot be trusted.
In Azerbaijan, I know a substantial number of non-governmental
activists and middle-level officials who have been working quietly
on dialogue projects with Armenians. It is hard to see those going
forward in the current environment.
If there is any silver lining to this dark episode it could be that
the international community pays more attention to the dangers of a
new Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The conflict
is not "frozen," as it is frequently described.
The current format of quiet mediation by France, Russia and the US
is not strong enough to move the two sides from their intransigent
positions. The reception given Safarov suggests that the situation
is moving closer to war than peace. This slide can be halted, but
the time to start working harder on diplomacy is now.
Thomas de Waal is a senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace in Washington DC.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19477043
4 September 2012 Last updated at 17:20
By Thomas de Waal Caucasus expert
Ramil Safarov, centre, walks in the Martyrs' Alley national memorial
in Baku. 31 Aug 2012 Ramil Safarov, centre, has been treated like
a national hero since returning to Azerbaijan Continue reading the
main story
RELATED STORIES
* Karabakh guns still at the ready * Country profile: Azerbaijan *
Country profile: Armenia
This is a black week for those who are seeking a peaceful settlement
of the long-running Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
On 31 August, in a deeply provocative move, Azerbaijani President
Ilham Aliev pardoned convicted murderer Ramil Safarov on his return
to Baku from a Hungarian prison.
Safarov had been attending a Nato training-course in 2004 when he
killed Armenian fellow officer Gurgen Markarian with an axe while
he slept.
Back in 2004, the brutal killing on ethnic grounds caused an inevitable
upsurge of emotion in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have been
waging a conflict in various forms over the disputed territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh since 1988.
There was an upsurge in the war of words in the media, which generally
goes further than what officials allow themselves to say.
Markarian was given a state funeral. In Azerbaijan a few members of
parliament dared to call Safarov a "hero," but many Azerbaijanis felt
ashamed at how his action reflected on their country and, mercifully,
government officials mostly kept silent.
Eight years on, that has all turned round.
This is now a full-blown state-to-state row, with as yet unknowable
consequences. For reasons that have yet to be fully explained, the
Hungarian government negotiated the extradition of Safarov to Baku
having secured an agreement, they maintained, that he would only be
eligible for parole after having served the remainder of a 25-year
prison term in an Azerbaijani jail.
Hero's welcome
Instead, Safarov was pardoned. Leaving him a free man without public
comment would have been bad enough. The Azerbaijani government went
much further than that, treating Safarov as a hero. He was given an
apartment in Baku and personally promoted to the rank of major by
the defence minister.
Every action has a reaction. Unsurprisingly, the US government and the
Russian foreign ministry reacted to the news with strong disapproval.
The spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton also
expressed alarm but stopped short of directly criticising its own
member state, Hungary. The EU already has enough problems with
controversial Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Nagorno-Karabakh soldier in 1992 Thousands died in the six-year war
over Nagorno-Karabakh that ended in 1994
As for Armenia, it appears to be close to boiling over. It has
suspended diplomatic relations with Hungary and observers of the
Karabakh negotiating process - already on the verge of failure -
are watching apprehensively for what it will do next.
The Armenian government was already telling all foreign interlocutors
how unhappy it was with the state of the peace process. There were
tough questions to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in June
as to why there was not a sharper US response to violations of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire, which are widely perceived to come
more from the Azerbaijani side.
Yerevan could now be tempted to suspend its participation in the
peace talks.
Some Armenian commentators are calling for more extreme steps such
as recognising breakaway Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh as an
independent state. There will also be the inevitable worry that a
fanatical Armenian will try to commit a revenge attack.
>From the political perspective, to call the Azerbaijani government's
actions a mistake is an understatement. It is a worrying indication
of the quality of advice that President Ilham Aliev is receiving from
his inner circle.
Over the past few years, the government in Baku has spent tens of
millions of dollars of its new oil revenues promoting the image of
Azerbaijan as a new, modernising, dynamic country. The effect has
been quite successful, with results ranging from Azerbaijan joining
the UN Security Council to Baku hosting feel-good events such as the
Eurovision Song Contest.
All that PR work now has to contend with a contrary image, of the
government welcoming home an axe-murderer.
Map locator
Sadly, the events of this week are a big boost for radicals on
both sides.
They strengthen the hands of those Armenian hardliners who say that
this proves that Azerbaijanis are barbarians who cannot be trusted.
In Azerbaijan, I know a substantial number of non-governmental
activists and middle-level officials who have been working quietly
on dialogue projects with Armenians. It is hard to see those going
forward in the current environment.
If there is any silver lining to this dark episode it could be that
the international community pays more attention to the dangers of a
new Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The conflict
is not "frozen," as it is frequently described.
The current format of quiet mediation by France, Russia and the US
is not strong enough to move the two sides from their intransigent
positions. The reception given Safarov suggests that the situation
is moving closer to war than peace. This slide can be halted, but
the time to start working harder on diplomacy is now.
Thomas de Waal is a senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace in Washington DC.