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  • Gabala radar: a chip in political games

    Agency WPS
    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    June 17, 2005, Friday

    GABALA RADAR: A CHIP IN POLITICAL GAMES

    SOURCE: Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kurier, No 21, June 15 - 21, 2005, pp.
    1, 3

    by Dzhasur Mamedov

    Railroad echelons of 15 platform cars with military hardware and
    munitions of the Russian military base in Adjaria (Georgia) left
    Batumi for Armenia in late May. Official Baku hit the roof.

    To quote a source from the Russian Army Group in the Caucasus, "the
    echelon with military hardware and munitions was sent in accordance
    with the plan of withdrawal of surplus munitions and military hardware
    from the Batumi base in Georgia, the one charted several months ago
    i.e. before completion of the Russian-Georgian talks over the date
    of withdrawal of bases from Batumi and Akhalkalaki."

    Director of the Presidential Administration, Dmitry Medvedev, travelled
    to Yerevan to discuss withdrawal of the bases from Georgia.

    So far unconfirmed official reports indicate that Russia plans to move
    at least 40 tanks of the Russian Army Group in the Caucasus to Armenia.

    Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan sent a note to Russia on May 23. The
    note was served by Foreign Minister, Elmar Mamedjarov ,to Russian
    Charge d'Affaires in baku, Pyotr Burdykin. The document expresses
    Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry's worries over statements of some military
    and political leaders of Russia concerning the transfer of a part of
    the military hardware from Georgia to Armenia. Foreign Ministry hopes
    that Moscow will abandon its plans to transfer some military hardware
    and munitions to Armenia "thus reiterating its interest in security
    and stability in the region, preservation of trust and traditional
    relations of friendship and neighborly relations between Azerbaijan
    and Russia."

    Burdykin served the Russian Foreign Ministry's answer on June 2.
    According to the diplomat, the equipment in question is to be
    transferred "from one Russian military base to another." It is not
    to be directed against Azerbaijan.

    The diplomat pointed out that Russia was "forced" to rapidly withdraw
    its troops from Georgia and that was why some of the military hardware
    could end up on Russian military bases in Armenia. It did not mean
    their transfer to Yerevan, Burdykin emphasized.

    "It will aggravate the military-political situation in the region and
    throughout the world," Colonel Ramiz Melikov of the PR Department of
    the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said. Melikov added that it would
    increase the risk of a new war in the Caucasus.

    "Arming Armenia with new military hardware will have a negative effect
    on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement," Deputy Foreign Minister
    Araz Azimov added.

    Khalaf Khalafov, another Deputy Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan,
    mentioned the illegitimate transition of almost $1 billion worth of
    weapons from Russia to Armenia several years ago. Khalafov said that
    Azerbaijan had made its firm position plain then. Saying that the
    Caucasus (its southern part) was a region the Treaty on Conventional
    Arms in Europe applied to, Khalafov urged all signatories to abstain
    from the moves undermining stability and security.

    Novruz Mamedov, chief of the international department of the
    presidential apparatus, is of the same opinion. Mamedov believes that
    what Russia is doing collides with the objective of fortification
    of regional stability and with dynamic advancement of international
    relations. Russia may lose respect in the eyes of the region and that
    will weaken its positions, he said.

    Murtus Aleskerov, Chairman of the Parliament of Azerbaijan, called
    transfer of Russian bases from Georgia to Armenia unacceptable.

    Vafa Guluzade, former advisor for foreign political matters and
    political scientist, praises readiness of the Kremlin to contemplate
    withdrawal of its bases from Georgia. "Withdrawal of the bases will
    benefit Azerbaijan too, because we have close contacts with Georgia
    and - through it - with Turkey," he said.

    As for the Kremlin's intention to move some military hardware to
    Armenia, the political scientist does not think that Russian leaders
    are left with any other choice. "Military hardware of Russian military
    bases in Georgia is hopelessly outdated. It is scrap metal in fact,"
    Guluzade said. "Russia does not need it. As for Armenia, it has this
    scrap metal in such quantities that a little bit more will not play
    any noticeable role."

    The move of the military hardware in question to Armenia does collide
    with provisions of the Treaty on Conventional Arms in Europe, but
    neither the OSCE nor the West in general object because they are
    fully aware of its uselessness.

    In other words, presence of the military hardware in question in
    Armenia is not going to have any negative consequences for Azerbaijan,
    the political scientist said. "Azerbaijan does not intend to go
    to war, and neither does Armenia intend to attack us," he said.
    "Moreover, quite soon now (when Russia is finally out of the region)
    these countries will make peace, and all Azerbaijani territories
    currently occupied will be returned to Baku."

    Major General Dadash Rzayev, ex-defense minister who is currently
    involved with the Military-Scientific Center of the Azerbaijani
    Defense Ministry, is convinced that new armaments in Armenia will
    wreck stability and peace in the region "As I see it, Russia is bent
    on sending the military hardware to Armenia because it perceives the
    latter as the regional gendarme. Hence all this stalling for time in
    the process of the Karabakh settlement."

    Rzayev refused to offer an opinion on what turn the events would take
    now. He is convinced, nevertheless that, "Arming itself, Armenia
    runs the risk of finding itself in isolation both in the Caucasus
    and throughout the world."

    "Transfer of military hardware is not the question at this point. The
    matter concerns transfer of munitions only," Defense Minister
    of Armenia Serzh Sarkisjan told the newspaper Aikakan Zhamanak,
    commenting on Chief of the General Staff Yuri Baluyevsky's words that
    some military hardware would be moved to Armenia.

    "Sure, we want the Russian base in Armenia fully outfitted with
    munitions," Sarkisjan said. Asked about the possibility of transfer of
    military hardware from the bases in Georgia to Armenia, the minister
    said, "Military hardware has not even been discussed yet. If the
    transfer takes place, however, it is not going to mean appearance of
    a new Russian military base in Armenia." The minister did not specify
    the quantity of munitions to be brought to Armenia or the date of
    their shipments.

    Deputy Foreign Minister of Armenia, Vardan Oskanjan, says that Yerevan
    and Moscow are not discussing transfer of troops from Georgia to
    Armenia but possibility of that cannot be ruled out.

    Transfer of a part of Russian military hardware is subject to
    the bilateral accord on military cooperation and establishment of
    Russian military bases and armaments quotas specified by the Treaty on
    Conventional Arms in Europe, according to Colonel Seiran Sakhsuvarjan,
    Press Secretary of the Armenian defense minister, Sakhsuvarjan,
    denies signing of any new documents on the subject and says that
    deployment of troops has not been discussed so far.

    Official Baku may revise the Gabala Center Lease Accord with
    Moscow because of the transfer of military bases from Georgia to
    Armenia, to quote a source from Doctrine, Center of Military Research
    (Azerbaijan). Its specialists say that Baku may initiate the revision
    in the near future already.

    "In any case, existence of the Russian military base (Gabala Center)
    in Azerbaijan worries NATO," a spokesman for the Center said. "The
    Alliance is determined to control the information compiled by the
    Center pending completion of the lease in 2012. Ecological monitoring
    will be executed as well."

    According to the Center, Azerbaijan is sending a team of
    representatives of the Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry to
    Moscow to clarify the situation with withdrawal of the Russian bases
    from Georgia. The future of the Gabala radar may be brought up in the
    talks. Sources in the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry say meanwhile that
    bilateral consultations between foreign ministries of Azerbaijan and
    Georgia are already under way.

    Experts attach importance to Mamedjarov's statement, "We have certain
    methods of preventing actions like that on Russia's part. It is too
    early yet to raise our voice. We will wait for completion of the
    Russian-Georgian talks, study the treaty between Moscow and Tbilisi,
    and act afterwards."

    ORIGINAL-LANGUAGE: RUSSIAN
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