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The New Anatolian, Turkey
June 21 2005
German realism vs. Turkish naivete
View: Huseyin Bagci
Yes, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is very disappointed with the
decision of the German Parliament concerning the so-called Armenian
genocide. Yes, the Turkish public is very disappointed also. But does
this change anything? The German Parliament was giving the signal
three months ago when European Union members from Eastern Europe
accepted the "genocide" in their parliaments, as some German
opposition Christian Democrat politicians were using the opportunity
to carry it also to the German Parliament. Indeed, German Chancellor
Gerhard Schroeder was successful in diverting the debate to other
directions before he came to Ankara just at the beginning of May with
a greatbusiness army of 600 investors. Germany was the last
stronghold in this respect that Turkey should not lose. However,
first the early elections decision and now the ever-stronger
Christian Democrats applied such pressure that neither Schroeder nor
Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer could defend Turkey anymore. In
other words, German realpolitik made it imperative that the
Parliament accept the decision without even debating it! So
naturally!
The Turkish disappointment does not count for very much. Germany is
aware that Turks need Germany, and Germany can decide what is right
for Germany, but not what is right for Turkey. Understandable. What
is not understandable is how Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan could fall
into the German trap! Erdogan was really hit very badly by this
decision. It will have a huge domestic political impact. Than, after
Cyprus, now also the Armenian issue became a political defeat for
him. His good brother and friend Schroeder, as the German press
called it "man-to-man on the Bosphorus," is damaged. Everyone knew
that Prime Minister Erdogan was so sure that Germany would protect
him against the other EU countries, and Germany is the advocate for
the Turkish cause in EU matters. Such a naivete by Erdogan? Yes,
Erdogan was naive. But politics is no place for naivete. For this you
should know European history and the European mind. How it is
functioning and how it is responding requires another expertise. The
accusation of Erdogan's that this decision of Germany is ethically
not right, this is true, but who cares about ethics in international
politics since September 11?
The public reactions towards the German decision last Friday, like
the protest in front of the German Embassy in Ankara or the
demonstration in Berlin, as experience shows will not change
anything. The reason for that is that Germany is in trouble and
French and German politics must go hand in hand. Even French
President Chirac turned his back on Turkey, Germany's shift is just a
normal one. What is at stake is the future of Europe, not Turkey. The
summit in Brussels last week showed how Turkey will be gradually
excluded. It is understandable that the EU will not do anything until
2013 and the negotiations will start formally this October.
Why has Germany taken this decision, and what does it means for the
future? First of all, this decision is damaging Turkish-German
relations. The trust in German politicians will be questionable.
After the Christian Democrats come to power, it is expected that
relations will be further determined not in political terms but in
political and defense terms. Turkish politics is in a "exclusion
period" from now on, and the Armenian diaspora will score more
victories in other EU and non-EU countries. The German decision will
certainly encourage some other countries. Germany is changing history
with this decision. At least that they are partly responsible for the
events of 1915-16 is nothing new. The German word "Volkermord" is
something which is difficult to translate and understand for Turks.
Yes, Germany is finishing the legend of "Turkish-German brothers in
arms" from World War 1. It was never truly accepted by the Germans,
but accepted one-sidedly by the Turks.
Yes, there is an ignorance by the EU countries of Turkish history,
and once again the Turks are "guilty" in the eyes of many EU
countries.
Many will not accept it but with this decision of Germany, Turkish-EU
relations will be never be healthy again. The reason is, one can
foresee it, that the so-called "Armenian genocide" will become a
political sine quo non when the day comes that Turkey should join the
EU. The Cyprus issue is the best example. The EU is acting unjustly
towards Turkey on the Cyprus issue and will continue to do so, and
the Turks only blame the EU for having double standards. As our
saying goes, "Good morning after supper!" (Why did this take you so
long?)
Turkish political parties are losing their enthusiasm for the EU.
They will get more and more anti-EU tendencies. The opposition
Republican People's Party (CHP) is the latest example of this, and
definitely others will follow. Who is the loser? Surely the Justice
and Development (AK) Party government. Both the prime minister and
foreign minister find it very difficult to tell winner here. The
second step will be a privileged partnership debate. Turkish-German
relations will move into a much tenser period. This is Germany's
decision, not Turkey's. They know what is realpolitik, while the
Turks on the other side still try to convince the world that ethics
is important in politics. Again, only Turks can be so naive
June 21 2005
German realism vs. Turkish naivete
View: Huseyin Bagci
Yes, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is very disappointed with the
decision of the German Parliament concerning the so-called Armenian
genocide. Yes, the Turkish public is very disappointed also. But does
this change anything? The German Parliament was giving the signal
three months ago when European Union members from Eastern Europe
accepted the "genocide" in their parliaments, as some German
opposition Christian Democrat politicians were using the opportunity
to carry it also to the German Parliament. Indeed, German Chancellor
Gerhard Schroeder was successful in diverting the debate to other
directions before he came to Ankara just at the beginning of May with
a greatbusiness army of 600 investors. Germany was the last
stronghold in this respect that Turkey should not lose. However,
first the early elections decision and now the ever-stronger
Christian Democrats applied such pressure that neither Schroeder nor
Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer could defend Turkey anymore. In
other words, German realpolitik made it imperative that the
Parliament accept the decision without even debating it! So
naturally!
The Turkish disappointment does not count for very much. Germany is
aware that Turks need Germany, and Germany can decide what is right
for Germany, but not what is right for Turkey. Understandable. What
is not understandable is how Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan could fall
into the German trap! Erdogan was really hit very badly by this
decision. It will have a huge domestic political impact. Than, after
Cyprus, now also the Armenian issue became a political defeat for
him. His good brother and friend Schroeder, as the German press
called it "man-to-man on the Bosphorus," is damaged. Everyone knew
that Prime Minister Erdogan was so sure that Germany would protect
him against the other EU countries, and Germany is the advocate for
the Turkish cause in EU matters. Such a naivete by Erdogan? Yes,
Erdogan was naive. But politics is no place for naivete. For this you
should know European history and the European mind. How it is
functioning and how it is responding requires another expertise. The
accusation of Erdogan's that this decision of Germany is ethically
not right, this is true, but who cares about ethics in international
politics since September 11?
The public reactions towards the German decision last Friday, like
the protest in front of the German Embassy in Ankara or the
demonstration in Berlin, as experience shows will not change
anything. The reason for that is that Germany is in trouble and
French and German politics must go hand in hand. Even French
President Chirac turned his back on Turkey, Germany's shift is just a
normal one. What is at stake is the future of Europe, not Turkey. The
summit in Brussels last week showed how Turkey will be gradually
excluded. It is understandable that the EU will not do anything until
2013 and the negotiations will start formally this October.
Why has Germany taken this decision, and what does it means for the
future? First of all, this decision is damaging Turkish-German
relations. The trust in German politicians will be questionable.
After the Christian Democrats come to power, it is expected that
relations will be further determined not in political terms but in
political and defense terms. Turkish politics is in a "exclusion
period" from now on, and the Armenian diaspora will score more
victories in other EU and non-EU countries. The German decision will
certainly encourage some other countries. Germany is changing history
with this decision. At least that they are partly responsible for the
events of 1915-16 is nothing new. The German word "Volkermord" is
something which is difficult to translate and understand for Turks.
Yes, Germany is finishing the legend of "Turkish-German brothers in
arms" from World War 1. It was never truly accepted by the Germans,
but accepted one-sidedly by the Turks.
Yes, there is an ignorance by the EU countries of Turkish history,
and once again the Turks are "guilty" in the eyes of many EU
countries.
Many will not accept it but with this decision of Germany, Turkish-EU
relations will be never be healthy again. The reason is, one can
foresee it, that the so-called "Armenian genocide" will become a
political sine quo non when the day comes that Turkey should join the
EU. The Cyprus issue is the best example. The EU is acting unjustly
towards Turkey on the Cyprus issue and will continue to do so, and
the Turks only blame the EU for having double standards. As our
saying goes, "Good morning after supper!" (Why did this take you so
long?)
Turkish political parties are losing their enthusiasm for the EU.
They will get more and more anti-EU tendencies. The opposition
Republican People's Party (CHP) is the latest example of this, and
definitely others will follow. Who is the loser? Surely the Justice
and Development (AK) Party government. Both the prime minister and
foreign minister find it very difficult to tell winner here. The
second step will be a privileged partnership debate. Turkish-German
relations will move into a much tenser period. This is Germany's
decision, not Turkey's. They know what is realpolitik, while the
Turks on the other side still try to convince the world that ethics
is important in politics. Again, only Turks can be so naive