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Armenia: Knife Or Donor For Caucasian Artery

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  • Armenia: Knife Or Donor For Caucasian Artery

    ARMENIA: KNIFE OR DONOR FOR CAUCASIAN ARTERY
    HAKOB BADALYAN

    http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/28201
    Story from Lragir.am News:
    16:12 29/11/2012

    The Georgian minister of integration Paata Zakareishvili has announced
    that the issue of the Abkhazian railway has been removed from the
    agenda because Abkhazia has not displayed any interest. Note that
    Zakareishvili had made a statement noting that Georgia is ready
    to open the railway outside the scope of political issues. He now
    states that the issue has been removed from the agenda and is passing
    through the first and important stage of practical diplomacy. Even
    though the world goes for public political declarations, politics is
    carried out behind the stage and only then made known to the public.

    In the case of the Abkhazian railway it is true because the issue of
    the railway is outside the Georgian-Abkhazian scope. It is the result
    of the demand shaped through the regional game, and this is the reason
    why the new Georgian government made this interesting statement on the
    railway. If we observe the behavior of the new Georgian government,
    we will see that the other interesting thing about it was the internal
    persecution against Saakashvili's team.

    What has generated the demand in the Abkhazian railway? First,
    this railway can help expand the scope of the factor of Abkhazian
    sovereignty, the process of achieving at least relative independence
    of this unrecognized state. The Russian-Georgian war in 2008 was
    initiated not only by the Russian side which deployed its troops on
    the border of South Ossetia to counteract to Georgia but also in the
    west. Evidence to this is Saakashvili's statements following the war,
    hinting that the West had promised ahead of the war not to leave him
    alone but did leave him alone, in fact.

    The war helped resolve several issues. Russia's success was relative
    at first sight while strategically it had the adverse effect. With
    this war Russia took what it already had de facto and irreversibly.

    Instead, Russia is exposed to the risk of legal responsibility and
    Western reproach. It is not accidental that Moscow almost reached
    Tbilisi but did not dare to intervene and change the government of
    Saakashvili. Later Moscow tried to restitute defeat in Georgia by
    the West with activity regarding the Karabakh conflict and zeal to
    deploy CSTO peacemakers in that area but fortunately failed thanks
    to the West.

    At the same time, the West actually resolved the issue of Abkhazia
    and Ossetia, helping this country to rid of the burden of illusions
    and conflict which was a hindrance to Georgia's geopolitical plans.

    Currently the second stage of the geopolitical plan is maturing,
    and the first steps were taken in Georgia by removing Saakashvili's
    government and electing Ivanishvili who is moderate. This is
    a circumstance required by the logic of the second stage. Having
    severed Abkhazia and Ossetia from Georgia, mainly Abkhazia due to
    psychological and geographical peculiarities, the West will set to
    resolve the task of severing them from Russia.

    This is an issue of a longer phase and requires moderate government in
    Georgia because the guarantee of success is to avoid abrupt steps. The
    logic of this phase also includes the issue of the Abkhazian railway
    which would enable linking Abkhazia to the South Caucasus, thus
    generating the tangible goal of Abkhazian independence.

    The issue of the Abkhazian railway is quite topical on the agenda of
    backstage diplomacy, and first the moods are checked.

    In addition, this project has a potential for a third stage, or maybe
    also its elaboration which will presuppose expansion towards south, up
    to the Persian Gulf. It should not be ruled out that the third stage
    may start during the second stage, or maybe it has already started,
    namely the developments in Iran and especially Syria.

    Official Yerevan still abstains from important statements on this
    issue. The prime minister had expressed thoughts on the railway in an
    interview with the Interfax, mainly focusing on the benefits of the
    railway for Armenia. However, Yerevan does not possess enough resource
    for a practical policy although it has great responsibility for the
    general logic of developments, avoidance of the role of a wedge tapped
    at the South Caucasian axis of the Russian strategy and the role of the
    trigger of Armenian-Georgian contacts. Armenia could cut the Caucasian
    artery or act as a donor of generation of civilization development.

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