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  • US adopts cautious stance on Armenia's democratization

    EurasiaNet Organization
    June 22 2005

    UNITED STATES ADOPTS CAUTIOUS STANCE ON ARMENIA'S DEMOCRATIZATION

    Emil Danielyan 6/22/05



    The United States has stepped up efforts to promote democratization
    in former Soviet states in recent years. Accordingly, opposition
    leaders in Armenia are hopeful of receiving Washington's support for
    a renewed push to force President Robert Kocharian's administration
    from power in Yerevan. But US officials seem anxious to squelch such
    expectations, insisting that they harbor no regime-change ambitions
    for Armenia.

    During a visit to Georgia in mid May, US President George W. Bush
    offered effusive praise for the Rose Revolution led by Georgian
    President Mikheil Saakashvili. [For background see the Eurasia
    Insight archive]. Some politicians and pundits in neighboring Armenia
    interpreted Bush's statements as a thinly veiled call for
    democratically oriented regime change throughout the Caucasus. Media
    outlets in Yerevan have since speculated on who might be Washington's
    preferred successor to Kocharian. [For additional information see the
    Eurasia Insight archive].

    Members of the Bush administration now adamantly deny they want
    political turnover in Yerevan. "We are not in the revolution
    business," a senior Bush administration official said in an
    interview. The official went on to downplay Washington's role in the
    recent revolutionary trend, saying the United States was "not
    responsible" for the successful popular uprisings in Georgia, Ukraine
    and Kyrgyzstan. The official noted that the United States had
    maintained good relations with the toppled leaders of the three
    ex-Soviet states, Georgia's Eduard Shevardnadze, Ukraine's Leonid
    Kuchma and Kyrgyzstan's Askar Akayev. "We didn't do anything to
    trigger those events," he said.

    The senior administration official indicated that recent statements
    made by President Bush should not be interpreted as a call for street
    protests, or other anti-government action that undermines stability
    in the region. "The [Armenian] opposition should not launch a
    dangerous revolution or seek to humiliate the [Kocharian] regime,"
    the senior administration official said, adding that Washington now
    favors an "evolutionary process" of democratization.

    Officials at the State Department made a similar point, saying that
    the United States supports only the use of "legal means" in any
    effort to bring about political change. US enthusiasm for regime
    change seems to have cooled markedly since the May 13 violence in
    Andijan, Uzbekistan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
    archive].

    Armenia's leading opposition parties have never recognized the
    legitimacy of Kocharian's disputed re-election in 2003, and they have
    maintained a boycott of the country's parliament. [For background see
    the Eurasia Insight archive]. Apparently encouraged by Bush
    administration rhetoric, opposition leaders have sent signals about
    organizing another round of mass rallies aimed at forcing Kocharian
    to step down. The first opposition protest effort stalled in 2004 in
    the face of stiff governmental resistance. [For background see the
    Eurasia Insight archive].

    Of late, opposition rhetoric has taken on a more aggressive tone.
    Embracing a pro-Western foreign policy agenda, some opposition
    politicians have gone as far as to call for Armenia's withdrawal from
    the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty, and the country's
    accession to NATO. Russia and Armenia have traditionally enjoyed a
    special strategic relationship. [For additional information see the
    Eurasia Insight archive].

    Aram Sarkisian, the outspoken leader of Armenia's most radical
    opposition party called Hanrapetutiun (Republic), traveled to
    Washington in early June for meetings with White House and State
    Department officials. He said the trip reinforced his resolve to
    carry out a "revolution." Sarkisian and other top opposition leaders
    feel that they can count on Washington's support in their
    revolutionary endeavors.

    "That is a dangerous and false assumption," countered a State
    Department official. He and other American officials indicated that
    the US government does not regard regime change as a necessary
    condition for Armenia's democratization.

    According to Cory Welt, a Caucasus and Central Asia analyst at the
    Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, such
    statements can be taken at face value. "From all indications that I
    have seen, Armenia is definitely not a target [for the Bush
    administration]," he said. "They tolerate the current regime in
    Yerevan."

    Kocharian's government drew praise from two US senators who visited
    Yerevan recently. Sen. Charles Hagel, a Nebraska Republican,
    professed to be "very impressed with the democratic reforms and
    economic development that have taken place in Armenia." Earlier, Sen.
    Norm Coleman, a Minnesota Republican, downplayed Armenia's troubled
    history of tainted elections. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
    archive]. "Elections alone don't make democracy," he told Radio Free
    Europe/Radio Liberty on May 31.

    Coleman's remarks seemed at odds with the strong US criticism of the
    last Armenian presidential election in 2003. The State Department
    said at the time that Armenian authorities "missed an important
    opportunity to advance democratization."

    The apparent contradiction between Bush's pro-democracy rhetoric and
    statements by other US officials makes it difficult to predict how
    Washington might react if the next round of Armenian national
    elections, due to occur in 2007, are plagued by irregularities. "I
    don't think the United States knows exactly what it wants right now,
    and that's part of the problem," said Welt, the political analyst.


    Editor's Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and
    political analyst.
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