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New Game Around Abkhazia
Igor Muradyan
13:37 08/12/2012
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/politics/view/28344
No doubt Georgia and Russia are interested in lifting the blockade of
the Abkhazian railway. It would boost Georgia's importance as a
transit country and bring additional income. It would be a factor of
strengthening Russia's foothold in the South Caucasus, as well as Iran
and Western Asia where 20 million tons of cargo awaits transportation
to the northwest of Europe.
However, the sides are not in a hurry to make a decision, preferring
to shift responsibility on Abkhazia which feels danger of Georgian
expansion considering the big Georgian community in the southeast of
this small country.
Moscow has staged a show of concerns about Abkhazia. Georgia also
waits, realizing that this is just the beginning. A long political
trade is expected. Nobody wants to lose and nobody wants to appear as
a destructive partner.
Moscow has already mobilized political experts who put forth arguments
in the presence of identical motives to involve Armenia in this game
with conditions which will be most prejudicial for Armenia. Armenia is
presented as the author of this dangerous plan for Abkhazia which does
not take into account Russia's interests.
But this is too thin a version though nobody cares how realistic this
version is. This position is so anti-Armenian that one doubts
Azerbaijani money has been put at its base. However, considering the
high level of integration of those experts, their `ruse' could be
explained by office tasks.
The falsehood of these arguments is revealed as soon as there is a
possibility to compare arguments regarding the allegedly negative
opinion of Russian military with the real opinion of the military. It
is said that the military are against lifting the blockade of this
transportation line due to `fight against drug trafficking' and
`appearance of Georgian terrorist groups in Abkhazia'.
This is totally stupid, the Moscow-based military experts say. It is
true that there are no more or less developed positions on this issue
in the Russian General Staff but the Russian military consider this as
a prospect of strengthening Russia's foothold in the region. Everyone
knows about the lack of coordination in Moscow.
The American diplomats in Moscow have conveyed to the Russia-based
experts that the United States will not thwart the lifting of blockade
on this section of the railway. By the way, the Armenian lobby in
Washington could confirm this intention of the United States and
support it. That would be the `Armenian resource' for this intention.
For its part, Georgia can sway the EU to provide funds for the
reconstruction of this railway. If Georgia cares for its sovereignty,
it cannot allow the Turkish-Azerbaijani guidance, especially regarding
issues which are not related to Turks and Azeris.
Certainly, the last word belongs to Abkhazia, and this republic has
already displayed its determination and staunch to build up its
sovereignty. Railway transit and transportation services will help
build up its sovereignty, not the contrary.
One way or another, the agreement of Russia and the United States will
have a deciding role for the solution of this issue. Therefore,
Armenia should not listen to the opinion of the `heralds of darkness'
and will continue to work towards this direction. This railway will be
opened sooner than the logically reasoning observers think.
Igor Muradyan
13:37 08/12/2012
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/politics/view/28344
No doubt Georgia and Russia are interested in lifting the blockade of
the Abkhazian railway. It would boost Georgia's importance as a
transit country and bring additional income. It would be a factor of
strengthening Russia's foothold in the South Caucasus, as well as Iran
and Western Asia where 20 million tons of cargo awaits transportation
to the northwest of Europe.
However, the sides are not in a hurry to make a decision, preferring
to shift responsibility on Abkhazia which feels danger of Georgian
expansion considering the big Georgian community in the southeast of
this small country.
Moscow has staged a show of concerns about Abkhazia. Georgia also
waits, realizing that this is just the beginning. A long political
trade is expected. Nobody wants to lose and nobody wants to appear as
a destructive partner.
Moscow has already mobilized political experts who put forth arguments
in the presence of identical motives to involve Armenia in this game
with conditions which will be most prejudicial for Armenia. Armenia is
presented as the author of this dangerous plan for Abkhazia which does
not take into account Russia's interests.
But this is too thin a version though nobody cares how realistic this
version is. This position is so anti-Armenian that one doubts
Azerbaijani money has been put at its base. However, considering the
high level of integration of those experts, their `ruse' could be
explained by office tasks.
The falsehood of these arguments is revealed as soon as there is a
possibility to compare arguments regarding the allegedly negative
opinion of Russian military with the real opinion of the military. It
is said that the military are against lifting the blockade of this
transportation line due to `fight against drug trafficking' and
`appearance of Georgian terrorist groups in Abkhazia'.
This is totally stupid, the Moscow-based military experts say. It is
true that there are no more or less developed positions on this issue
in the Russian General Staff but the Russian military consider this as
a prospect of strengthening Russia's foothold in the region. Everyone
knows about the lack of coordination in Moscow.
The American diplomats in Moscow have conveyed to the Russia-based
experts that the United States will not thwart the lifting of blockade
on this section of the railway. By the way, the Armenian lobby in
Washington could confirm this intention of the United States and
support it. That would be the `Armenian resource' for this intention.
For its part, Georgia can sway the EU to provide funds for the
reconstruction of this railway. If Georgia cares for its sovereignty,
it cannot allow the Turkish-Azerbaijani guidance, especially regarding
issues which are not related to Turks and Azeris.
Certainly, the last word belongs to Abkhazia, and this republic has
already displayed its determination and staunch to build up its
sovereignty. Railway transit and transportation services will help
build up its sovereignty, not the contrary.
One way or another, the agreement of Russia and the United States will
have a deciding role for the solution of this issue. Therefore,
Armenia should not listen to the opinion of the `heralds of darkness'
and will continue to work towards this direction. This railway will be
opened sooner than the logically reasoning observers think.