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VOTE 2013: TOP POLLSTER SAYS RUNOFF UNLIKELY IN NEXT MONTH'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
http://armenianow.com/vote_2013/42379/presidential_election_candidates_sociologist_aharo n_adibekyan_serzh_sargsyan
VOTE 2013 | 09.01.13 | 14:57
Armenian top sociologist Aharon Adibekyan all but rules out a runoff
in next month's presidential election where the incumbent president,
according to him, is a clear favorite to win.
Adibekyan's opinion is based on the results of a survey conducted by
his Sociometer center in late December. The results of the survey
conducted among 1,420 eligible voters across Armenia show that
only 52 percent of responds are interested in politics, and only 28
percent have decided who to vote for in the February 18 poll. Only
38 percent of respondents expressed a desire to go to the polls. And
24 percent said they still did not have a decision regarding whom of
the candidates to vote for.
"The main task during this campaign will be to bring voters to the
polling station to vote for one or another candidate," said Adibekyan
at a press conference on Wednesday.
"Theoretically a runoff is possible, but both [opposition Liberty
Party head, ex-prime minister] Hrant Bagratyan and [opposition Heritage
Party leader, ex-foreign minister] Raffi Hovannisian must have great
organizational and human resource to be able to be represented in
all communities of Armenia," added the sociologist who has often been
accused by the opposition of presenting opinion poll figures pleasing
the authorities.
So far the Central Election Commission has received full sets of
documents from eight potential candidates. Meanwhile, at least 15
people had intended to run for president, but seven of them have failed
to present receipts confirming their payment of an electoral deposit.
The main opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC), the "alternative"
Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), the Armenian Revolutionary Federation
(Dashnaktsutyun) and some other political parties opposed to the
current government refused to engage in the current presidential
race. The ANC and PAP also indicated that they would not endorse any
other candidate, while Dashnaktsutyun ruled out support at least for
the incumbent president.
Adibekyan said the Sociometer poll revealed that if the 28 percent of
the "decided" voters went to the polls today as many as 72 percent of
them would cast their votes for incumbent president Serzh Sargsyan,
20 percent would vote for Heritage Party leader Raffi Hovannisian,
3 percent would vote for National Self-Determination Union Chairman,
Soviet-era dissident Paruyr Hayrikyan, and the remaining 5 percent
"remains up for grabs".
"That may be the share of Hrant Bagratyan and other underdogs,"
said Adibekyan.
According to the sociologist, only 10 percent of PAP leader Gagik
Tsarukyan's potential 30-percent-strong electorate have decided to go
to the polls in February in the absence of their preferred candidate.
"A third of Tsarukyan votes is likely to go to Serzh Sargsyan, another
third to Raffi Hovannisian, and another third may go to Bagratyan or
other candidates," said Adibekyan.
The leading pollster also thinks that Dashnaktsutyun's position may
change things a little.
"This is the most organized political party, and besides public
statements they have internal decisions, and everything depends on
what internal instructions the ARF Executive Council gives to the
rank and file - whether to support Hovannisian or Bargratyan."
http://armenianow.com/vote_2013/42379/presidential_election_candidates_sociologist_aharo n_adibekyan_serzh_sargsyan
VOTE 2013 | 09.01.13 | 14:57
Armenian top sociologist Aharon Adibekyan all but rules out a runoff
in next month's presidential election where the incumbent president,
according to him, is a clear favorite to win.
Adibekyan's opinion is based on the results of a survey conducted by
his Sociometer center in late December. The results of the survey
conducted among 1,420 eligible voters across Armenia show that
only 52 percent of responds are interested in politics, and only 28
percent have decided who to vote for in the February 18 poll. Only
38 percent of respondents expressed a desire to go to the polls. And
24 percent said they still did not have a decision regarding whom of
the candidates to vote for.
"The main task during this campaign will be to bring voters to the
polling station to vote for one or another candidate," said Adibekyan
at a press conference on Wednesday.
"Theoretically a runoff is possible, but both [opposition Liberty
Party head, ex-prime minister] Hrant Bagratyan and [opposition Heritage
Party leader, ex-foreign minister] Raffi Hovannisian must have great
organizational and human resource to be able to be represented in
all communities of Armenia," added the sociologist who has often been
accused by the opposition of presenting opinion poll figures pleasing
the authorities.
So far the Central Election Commission has received full sets of
documents from eight potential candidates. Meanwhile, at least 15
people had intended to run for president, but seven of them have failed
to present receipts confirming their payment of an electoral deposit.
The main opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC), the "alternative"
Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), the Armenian Revolutionary Federation
(Dashnaktsutyun) and some other political parties opposed to the
current government refused to engage in the current presidential
race. The ANC and PAP also indicated that they would not endorse any
other candidate, while Dashnaktsutyun ruled out support at least for
the incumbent president.
Adibekyan said the Sociometer poll revealed that if the 28 percent of
the "decided" voters went to the polls today as many as 72 percent of
them would cast their votes for incumbent president Serzh Sargsyan,
20 percent would vote for Heritage Party leader Raffi Hovannisian,
3 percent would vote for National Self-Determination Union Chairman,
Soviet-era dissident Paruyr Hayrikyan, and the remaining 5 percent
"remains up for grabs".
"That may be the share of Hrant Bagratyan and other underdogs,"
said Adibekyan.
According to the sociologist, only 10 percent of PAP leader Gagik
Tsarukyan's potential 30-percent-strong electorate have decided to go
to the polls in February in the absence of their preferred candidate.
"A third of Tsarukyan votes is likely to go to Serzh Sargsyan, another
third to Raffi Hovannisian, and another third may go to Bagratyan or
other candidates," said Adibekyan.
The leading pollster also thinks that Dashnaktsutyun's position may
change things a little.
"This is the most organized political party, and besides public
statements they have internal decisions, and everything depends on
what internal instructions the ARF Executive Council gives to the
rank and file - whether to support Hovannisian or Bargratyan."