Tweet
ARMENIA 2013: SARGSYAN'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND BEYOND
http://sofiaglobe.com/2013/01/10/armenia-2013-sargsyans-presidential-election-and-beyond/
Posted JAN 10 2013
by CLIVE LEVIEV-SAWYER in ANALYSIS, CEE, NEWS, PERSPECTIVES
Amid all the uncertainties and difficulties facing Armenia, it appears
to have the prospect of one certainty - that in February its current
president, Serzh Sargsyan, will be elected to a second five-year term.
Whether that is a good thing depends on where you stand. But currently
Armenian politics is playing out in such a way that president Sargsyan
will have no serious rival on February 18 2103 when Armenians will
be asked to go to the polls.
This much is clear after January 8 saw yet another two presidential
candidates drop out of the race, effectively signalling what they
saw as the futility of continuing, a decision taken even ahead of the
official start of campaigning in Armenia's presidential elections on
January 21.
For Armenia and those closely observing it - notably, the European
Union - the conduct of the elections will be crucial, especially
given some of the criticisms that followed the May 2012 parliamentary
elections, which however went off better than the controversial
March 2008 presidential elections. According to the results of the
May 2012 elections, Sargsyan's Republican Party got 44 per cent, but
none of the four major opposition parties were prepared to recognise
the legitimacy of the result.
The EU's interest was spelt out on January 9 when European Enlargement
and Neighbourhood Policy Commissioner Štefan Fule held talks with
the president of the Armenian national assembly, Hovik Abrahamyan.
"Successful - free and fair - elections really matter and are crucial
for EU-Armenia relations; without them the continuous reform which
we want to see could be undermined. Before the elections next month,
further progress is needed in the implementation of the current
legislative framework, as recommended by the OSCE/ODIHR, while in
parallel the longer-term process of updating electoral legislation
for polls in the future should also continue." Fule said after the
meeting, according to a statement by his office.
Fule, according to the statement, commended the recent developments
in EU-Armenia relations, notably the good progress on the Visa
Facilitation and Readmission Agreement and the signature of last
December's Visa Facilitation Agreement.
He expressed hope that a good track record of its implementation will
allow the journey towards visa liberalisation to be taken to a next
level. He also expressed his appreciation for the unilateral lifting
of visa requirements by Armenia for EU citizens, the statement said.
Fule welcomed progress in the negotiations on an Association Agreement,
including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area.
"This Agreement is of the utmost importance in moving the EU-Armenia
relationship to a higher level. It goes far beyond a normal free
trade agreement. Through the Agreement the EU will open up portions
of its acquis related to the internal market. But beyond this it
encompasses changes that affect citizens in their daily lives in areas
like consumer protection, air quality and road safety, offering a
protective umbrella of high democratic standards and real guarantees
for their rights," the statement said.
The EU also has sent firm messages on regional issues surrounding
Armenia.
"Broader regional cooperation was also raised, with an emphasis on the
fact that good neighbourly relations are of strategic importance for
Armenia, in particular as regards Russia," Fule's statement said. "It
is in the EU's interest to see good Armenian-Russian relations;
they can in turn benefit also from Armenia's partnership with the EU."
Issues concerning the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement process were
discussed, including the issue of possible flights to the airport in
Nagorno-Karabakh. Fule reiterated EU's continued support for the OSCE
Minsk Group co-chairs and their efforts in facilitating a peaceful
settlement. He also emphasised the need for the sides to seek a
diplomatic solution to issues relating to this airport and to avoid any
actions that could fuel tensions in the region. co-chaired by France,
Russia and the United States, has been mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh
peace talks between the two rivals after the 1994 ceasefire that
followed six years of fighting that cost thousands of lives.
A firm message to the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute,
Armenia and Azerbaijan, was delivered in December when three EU
foreign ministers - Bulgaria's Nikolai Mladenov, Sweden's Carl Bildt
and Poland's Radoslaw Sikorski - toured the south Caucasus.
"On behalf of Europe, we today made a strong and clear call to the
parties to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh to not allow further
actions that could aggravate the situation and to take prompt steps
to reduce tensions," Mladenov said at the time.
"We are concerned by the constant escalation of the conflict in
Nagorno-Karabakh, especially in recent months," Mladenov said. From
here on, he said, it was important for Armenia and Azerbaijan to
stick to speech and actions that would prevent further escalation.
Meanwhile, at the meeting with Mladenov, Bildt and Sikorski, Armenian
foreign minister Eduard Nalbandian expressed concern about the
situation in Syria, which has had a direct impact on Armenia. About
8000 refugees from Syria have taken refuge in Armenia because of events
in their country. A total of 70 000 Armenian Christians from Syria
have left the conflict zone, which is why Armenia has a direct interest
in a rapid end to the violence, the Bulgarian Foreign Minister said.
In a report late in December 2012, the Voice of America quoted Armenian
prime minister Tigran Sargsyan as saying that many of the Syrians in
Armenia were losing hope of ever going back.
The refugees, forced out by the relentless violence by the Assad
regime in Syria, represent a serious burden for Armenia.
The Voice of America reported quoted the International Monetary Fund's
most recent outlook - October 2012 - as putting Armenia's unemployment
rate at 19 per cent, with the IMF forecasting that the jobless rate in
Armenia will remain above 17 per cent at least to the end of 2017. And
even with the economy slowly gaining steam following a dramatic drop
during the financial crisis, the World Bank says poverty remains
a problem.
The dramas in Armenia in 2012 ran the bounds of the country's serious
challenges, including June clashes at the border between Azerbaijan
and Armenia. At least eight soldiers died and several people on both
sides were wounded in exchanges of fire.
While the outcome of Armenia's presidential election in February
2013 appears a virtual certainty, the official campaign will be an
opportunity for president Sargsyan to spell out further how he sees
the country going forward.
Already, in a recent speech, outlining what he saw as his achievements
in his first term, he spoke of the next five years seeing Armenia as
a secure military power, as economically prosperous, governed by the
rule of law and eradicating corruption.
What observers in various geopolitical directions - given the direct
interest held in Armenia especially by its neighbours Turkey and
Azerbaijan, but also by Russia and the EU - will be awaiting will be
his messages on issues such as the Armenian genocide, Nagorno-Karabakh
and overall relations with Turkey and with the EU.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
http://sofiaglobe.com/2013/01/10/armenia-2013-sargsyans-presidential-election-and-beyond/
Posted JAN 10 2013
by CLIVE LEVIEV-SAWYER in ANALYSIS, CEE, NEWS, PERSPECTIVES
Amid all the uncertainties and difficulties facing Armenia, it appears
to have the prospect of one certainty - that in February its current
president, Serzh Sargsyan, will be elected to a second five-year term.
Whether that is a good thing depends on where you stand. But currently
Armenian politics is playing out in such a way that president Sargsyan
will have no serious rival on February 18 2103 when Armenians will
be asked to go to the polls.
This much is clear after January 8 saw yet another two presidential
candidates drop out of the race, effectively signalling what they
saw as the futility of continuing, a decision taken even ahead of the
official start of campaigning in Armenia's presidential elections on
January 21.
For Armenia and those closely observing it - notably, the European
Union - the conduct of the elections will be crucial, especially
given some of the criticisms that followed the May 2012 parliamentary
elections, which however went off better than the controversial
March 2008 presidential elections. According to the results of the
May 2012 elections, Sargsyan's Republican Party got 44 per cent, but
none of the four major opposition parties were prepared to recognise
the legitimacy of the result.
The EU's interest was spelt out on January 9 when European Enlargement
and Neighbourhood Policy Commissioner Štefan Fule held talks with
the president of the Armenian national assembly, Hovik Abrahamyan.
"Successful - free and fair - elections really matter and are crucial
for EU-Armenia relations; without them the continuous reform which
we want to see could be undermined. Before the elections next month,
further progress is needed in the implementation of the current
legislative framework, as recommended by the OSCE/ODIHR, while in
parallel the longer-term process of updating electoral legislation
for polls in the future should also continue." Fule said after the
meeting, according to a statement by his office.
Fule, according to the statement, commended the recent developments
in EU-Armenia relations, notably the good progress on the Visa
Facilitation and Readmission Agreement and the signature of last
December's Visa Facilitation Agreement.
He expressed hope that a good track record of its implementation will
allow the journey towards visa liberalisation to be taken to a next
level. He also expressed his appreciation for the unilateral lifting
of visa requirements by Armenia for EU citizens, the statement said.
Fule welcomed progress in the negotiations on an Association Agreement,
including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area.
"This Agreement is of the utmost importance in moving the EU-Armenia
relationship to a higher level. It goes far beyond a normal free
trade agreement. Through the Agreement the EU will open up portions
of its acquis related to the internal market. But beyond this it
encompasses changes that affect citizens in their daily lives in areas
like consumer protection, air quality and road safety, offering a
protective umbrella of high democratic standards and real guarantees
for their rights," the statement said.
The EU also has sent firm messages on regional issues surrounding
Armenia.
"Broader regional cooperation was also raised, with an emphasis on the
fact that good neighbourly relations are of strategic importance for
Armenia, in particular as regards Russia," Fule's statement said. "It
is in the EU's interest to see good Armenian-Russian relations;
they can in turn benefit also from Armenia's partnership with the EU."
Issues concerning the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement process were
discussed, including the issue of possible flights to the airport in
Nagorno-Karabakh. Fule reiterated EU's continued support for the OSCE
Minsk Group co-chairs and their efforts in facilitating a peaceful
settlement. He also emphasised the need for the sides to seek a
diplomatic solution to issues relating to this airport and to avoid any
actions that could fuel tensions in the region. co-chaired by France,
Russia and the United States, has been mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh
peace talks between the two rivals after the 1994 ceasefire that
followed six years of fighting that cost thousands of lives.
A firm message to the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute,
Armenia and Azerbaijan, was delivered in December when three EU
foreign ministers - Bulgaria's Nikolai Mladenov, Sweden's Carl Bildt
and Poland's Radoslaw Sikorski - toured the south Caucasus.
"On behalf of Europe, we today made a strong and clear call to the
parties to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh to not allow further
actions that could aggravate the situation and to take prompt steps
to reduce tensions," Mladenov said at the time.
"We are concerned by the constant escalation of the conflict in
Nagorno-Karabakh, especially in recent months," Mladenov said. From
here on, he said, it was important for Armenia and Azerbaijan to
stick to speech and actions that would prevent further escalation.
Meanwhile, at the meeting with Mladenov, Bildt and Sikorski, Armenian
foreign minister Eduard Nalbandian expressed concern about the
situation in Syria, which has had a direct impact on Armenia. About
8000 refugees from Syria have taken refuge in Armenia because of events
in their country. A total of 70 000 Armenian Christians from Syria
have left the conflict zone, which is why Armenia has a direct interest
in a rapid end to the violence, the Bulgarian Foreign Minister said.
In a report late in December 2012, the Voice of America quoted Armenian
prime minister Tigran Sargsyan as saying that many of the Syrians in
Armenia were losing hope of ever going back.
The refugees, forced out by the relentless violence by the Assad
regime in Syria, represent a serious burden for Armenia.
The Voice of America reported quoted the International Monetary Fund's
most recent outlook - October 2012 - as putting Armenia's unemployment
rate at 19 per cent, with the IMF forecasting that the jobless rate in
Armenia will remain above 17 per cent at least to the end of 2017. And
even with the economy slowly gaining steam following a dramatic drop
during the financial crisis, the World Bank says poverty remains
a problem.
The dramas in Armenia in 2012 ran the bounds of the country's serious
challenges, including June clashes at the border between Azerbaijan
and Armenia. At least eight soldiers died and several people on both
sides were wounded in exchanges of fire.
While the outcome of Armenia's presidential election in February
2013 appears a virtual certainty, the official campaign will be an
opportunity for president Sargsyan to spell out further how he sees
the country going forward.
Already, in a recent speech, outlining what he saw as his achievements
in his first term, he spoke of the next five years seeing Armenia as
a secure military power, as economically prosperous, governed by the
rule of law and eradicating corruption.
What observers in various geopolitical directions - given the direct
interest held in Armenia especially by its neighbours Turkey and
Azerbaijan, but also by Russia and the EU - will be awaiting will be
his messages on issues such as the Armenian genocide, Nagorno-Karabakh
and overall relations with Turkey and with the EU.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress