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Global Insight
December 27, 2012
Armenia under pressure to pick between EU integration or Russian-led
Customs Union
by Lilit Gevorgyan
Maja Kocijancic, the spokeswoman for EU foreign policy high
representative Catherine Ashton, said last week (21 December) that if
Armenia were to join the Russia-led Customs Union the 27-member
European bloc would not sign a free trade agreement with the South
Caucasian country. Kocijancic was quoted by Radio Free Europe saying
that as a sovereign country Armenia is free to join any agreement with
any country, including with third parties since "Armenia's membership
in a free trade agreement with a third country does not contradict the
Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) negotiations with
the EU." However, Ashton's spokeswoman clarified that if Armenia were
to join any customs union, this would not be compatible with DCFTA as
"a customs union has a common external trade policy and an individual
member country no longer has sovereign control over its external trade
policies."
Significance:The EU's clear warning comes shortly after Armenia signed
a long-awaited visa liberalisation deal in line with the ongoing
Association Agreement talks with the European bloc (see Armenia -
Europe: 20 December 2012:). However, shortly afterwards the Armenian
president Serzh Sargsyan held meetings with his Russian counterpart
Vladimir Putin. Although there has been no official statement on the
meeting, Armenian media outlets suggested that Moscow has increased
pressure on Yerevan to join the Russian-led Customs Union, which also
includes Belarus and Kazakhstan. Putin sees the customs bloc as the
core of a wider Eurasia Union envisaged to include most of the former
Soviet states. Although Armenia has strong political and economic ties
with Russia, its government has repeatedly rebuffed Moscow's proposal
to join the Customs Union since 2010 when it was launched. Even though
Armenia clearly aims for EU integration, Russia remains Armenia's
security guarantor in the face of a potential new war by neigbouring
Azerbaijan. While the EU has made some efforts to bring a peaceful
solution to the Armenian-Azeri conflict, the bloc is largely reluctant
to use its full political influence to curtail Azerbaijan's increasing
militarisation. This only increases Russia's importance as Armenia's
security guarantor. In the worst-case scenario, should Russia increase
the pressure on Armenia by threatening to limit its military
co-operation, this may force Yerevan to delay its talks with the EU.
However, Moscow is unlikely to take such an extreme step as it also
needs strategically located Armenia. Hence Russia might use economic
leverage, such as an increase in Russian gas prices for Armenia, to
force the latter to reconsider its position on the Customs Union.
Still, Armenia is likely to accommodate any potential economic
setbacks in its relations with Russia to continue on the path of EU
integration, a drive aimed at counter-balancing Russian influence over
Yerevan.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
December 27, 2012
Armenia under pressure to pick between EU integration or Russian-led
Customs Union
by Lilit Gevorgyan
Maja Kocijancic, the spokeswoman for EU foreign policy high
representative Catherine Ashton, said last week (21 December) that if
Armenia were to join the Russia-led Customs Union the 27-member
European bloc would not sign a free trade agreement with the South
Caucasian country. Kocijancic was quoted by Radio Free Europe saying
that as a sovereign country Armenia is free to join any agreement with
any country, including with third parties since "Armenia's membership
in a free trade agreement with a third country does not contradict the
Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) negotiations with
the EU." However, Ashton's spokeswoman clarified that if Armenia were
to join any customs union, this would not be compatible with DCFTA as
"a customs union has a common external trade policy and an individual
member country no longer has sovereign control over its external trade
policies."
Significance:The EU's clear warning comes shortly after Armenia signed
a long-awaited visa liberalisation deal in line with the ongoing
Association Agreement talks with the European bloc (see Armenia -
Europe: 20 December 2012:). However, shortly afterwards the Armenian
president Serzh Sargsyan held meetings with his Russian counterpart
Vladimir Putin. Although there has been no official statement on the
meeting, Armenian media outlets suggested that Moscow has increased
pressure on Yerevan to join the Russian-led Customs Union, which also
includes Belarus and Kazakhstan. Putin sees the customs bloc as the
core of a wider Eurasia Union envisaged to include most of the former
Soviet states. Although Armenia has strong political and economic ties
with Russia, its government has repeatedly rebuffed Moscow's proposal
to join the Customs Union since 2010 when it was launched. Even though
Armenia clearly aims for EU integration, Russia remains Armenia's
security guarantor in the face of a potential new war by neigbouring
Azerbaijan. While the EU has made some efforts to bring a peaceful
solution to the Armenian-Azeri conflict, the bloc is largely reluctant
to use its full political influence to curtail Azerbaijan's increasing
militarisation. This only increases Russia's importance as Armenia's
security guarantor. In the worst-case scenario, should Russia increase
the pressure on Armenia by threatening to limit its military
co-operation, this may force Yerevan to delay its talks with the EU.
However, Moscow is unlikely to take such an extreme step as it also
needs strategically located Armenia. Hence Russia might use economic
leverage, such as an increase in Russian gas prices for Armenia, to
force the latter to reconsider its position on the Customs Union.
Still, Armenia is likely to accommodate any potential economic
setbacks in its relations with Russia to continue on the path of EU
integration, a drive aimed at counter-balancing Russian influence over
Yerevan.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress