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"KARABAKH": IMPULSES, REALITY, AND FORECASTS
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Tuesday, January 15, 20:52
Latest impulses and forecasts regarding the Karabakh peace process
are directly linked to the January 28 meeting of the Armenian and
Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Paris. The Minsk Group mediators are
supposed to submit some new ideas to Nalbandian and Mammadyarov. It
is not known, however, what particular ideas they will offer. Baku
and Yerevan, the OSCE MG mediators will further keep in secrecy
the details of the negotiations on the Karabakh conflict within the
so-called Madrid Principles. The parties are supposed to bargain on
a common denominator in the most sensitive issues of the peace process.
The notorious details of the "Principles" are not made public, which
makes it possible for the Armenian and Azerbaijan authorities to
use the Karabakh issue in the domestic policy. It is noteworthy that
all this is happening upon sufferance of the Minsk Group co-chairs,
which is disturbing.
Azerbaijani Milli Mejlis Speaker Bahar Muradova's statement has
confirmed Azerbaijan's unwillingness to continue the negotiations
within the OSCE MG. Muradova said recently that Azerbaijan still
relies of the Helsinki Final Act and that "settlement of the conflict
only within the OSCE is impossible." Obviously, in the face of the
current trends and realities, Baku tries to boost the Minsk Process
by traditional "oil and gas" methods. Nevertheless, the Azerbaijani
authorities seem to have finally realized that relatively inexpensive
oil and gas does not bring the stances of the three co-chairs closer,
but paradoxically impedes the process. Fortunately, lack of consensus
between Paris, Washington and Moscow on the Karabakh peace process
and on other global issues seems not so favorable to Baku. Everyone
understands now that EU, USA and Russia together can influence not
only the Karabakh conflict but also other processes in the region
in case of desire. However, Russia is not ready to recognize the EU
as the regional actor and takes exception at European initiatives,
such as the Eastern Partnership Project, for instance. Moscow has a
similar approach to Washington.
The statement by Victoria Nuland, spokesperson for the United States
Department of State, has once again confirmed the USA's interest in
the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. She said that the U.S. tries
to actively cooperate with Russia also in regional issues such as
the situation in Nagorno Karabakh. For his part, Jonas Stewart,
spokesperson of the U.S. Embassy in Azerbaijan said that the U.S.
still considers of the OSCE MG the optimal format of international
mediation in the Karabakh peace process. That is why Baku strives to
give an impulse to the failing process. Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry
Spokesperson Elman Abdullayev has already declared that despite
the upcoming presidential elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan, the
negotiations for resolution of the conflict will not be stopped.
Azerbaijan believes that there are still diplomatic methods of settling
the conflict. It is noteworthy that the given statement is addressed
to Russia, USA and Europe.
The Iranian specialist in Caucasus Hassan Beheshtipour believes that
Baku will just aggravate the Karabakh issue by providing oil concession
management to Russian and American companies to settle the Karabakh
conflict in its favor without a conflict of interests of Washington
and Moscow. With Ilham Aliyev's coming to power Russia's influence in
Azerbaijan has decreased. Alongside with that the pro-Western political
elite in Azerbaijan has strengthened its positions. The last step
was the closedown of the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan. One can
arrive at a conclusion that Azerbaijan's strategy aims to gradually
reduce Russia's influence in its territory.
In this light, it is logical to say that trying to oust Russia from its
territory Baku will hardly be interested in Russia's co-chairmanship
of the OSCE MG.
From: Baghdasarian
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Tuesday, January 15, 20:52
Latest impulses and forecasts regarding the Karabakh peace process
are directly linked to the January 28 meeting of the Armenian and
Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Paris. The Minsk Group mediators are
supposed to submit some new ideas to Nalbandian and Mammadyarov. It
is not known, however, what particular ideas they will offer. Baku
and Yerevan, the OSCE MG mediators will further keep in secrecy
the details of the negotiations on the Karabakh conflict within the
so-called Madrid Principles. The parties are supposed to bargain on
a common denominator in the most sensitive issues of the peace process.
The notorious details of the "Principles" are not made public, which
makes it possible for the Armenian and Azerbaijan authorities to
use the Karabakh issue in the domestic policy. It is noteworthy that
all this is happening upon sufferance of the Minsk Group co-chairs,
which is disturbing.
Azerbaijani Milli Mejlis Speaker Bahar Muradova's statement has
confirmed Azerbaijan's unwillingness to continue the negotiations
within the OSCE MG. Muradova said recently that Azerbaijan still
relies of the Helsinki Final Act and that "settlement of the conflict
only within the OSCE is impossible." Obviously, in the face of the
current trends and realities, Baku tries to boost the Minsk Process
by traditional "oil and gas" methods. Nevertheless, the Azerbaijani
authorities seem to have finally realized that relatively inexpensive
oil and gas does not bring the stances of the three co-chairs closer,
but paradoxically impedes the process. Fortunately, lack of consensus
between Paris, Washington and Moscow on the Karabakh peace process
and on other global issues seems not so favorable to Baku. Everyone
understands now that EU, USA and Russia together can influence not
only the Karabakh conflict but also other processes in the region
in case of desire. However, Russia is not ready to recognize the EU
as the regional actor and takes exception at European initiatives,
such as the Eastern Partnership Project, for instance. Moscow has a
similar approach to Washington.
The statement by Victoria Nuland, spokesperson for the United States
Department of State, has once again confirmed the USA's interest in
the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. She said that the U.S. tries
to actively cooperate with Russia also in regional issues such as
the situation in Nagorno Karabakh. For his part, Jonas Stewart,
spokesperson of the U.S. Embassy in Azerbaijan said that the U.S.
still considers of the OSCE MG the optimal format of international
mediation in the Karabakh peace process. That is why Baku strives to
give an impulse to the failing process. Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry
Spokesperson Elman Abdullayev has already declared that despite
the upcoming presidential elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan, the
negotiations for resolution of the conflict will not be stopped.
Azerbaijan believes that there are still diplomatic methods of settling
the conflict. It is noteworthy that the given statement is addressed
to Russia, USA and Europe.
The Iranian specialist in Caucasus Hassan Beheshtipour believes that
Baku will just aggravate the Karabakh issue by providing oil concession
management to Russian and American companies to settle the Karabakh
conflict in its favor without a conflict of interests of Washington
and Moscow. With Ilham Aliyev's coming to power Russia's influence in
Azerbaijan has decreased. Alongside with that the pro-Western political
elite in Azerbaijan has strengthened its positions. The last step
was the closedown of the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan. One can
arrive at a conclusion that Azerbaijan's strategy aims to gradually
reduce Russia's influence in its territory.
In this light, it is logical to say that trying to oust Russia from its
territory Baku will hardly be interested in Russia's co-chairmanship
of the OSCE MG.
From: Baghdasarian