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PEACEKEEPERS FOR AIRPORT?: ARMENIA MAY BE LOOKING TO RUSSIA FOR SECURITY OF KARABAKH FLIGHTS
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow
21.01.13 | 12:40
Late last week the subject of the Stepanakert airport unexpectedly
again appeared in the news as information came from Karabakh that the
first Yerevan-Stepanakert commercial flight could be operated within
days (the fourth time such a prediction has surfaced).
Enlarge Photo Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan
In response, the Azerbaijani government ordered the country's air
defense forces to shoot down civilian aircraft "illegally entering
its airspace".
Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan, in turn, said that Armenia's
anti-aircraft defense will ensure the safety of civilian aircraft
flying from Yerevan to Stepanakert.
Only a very good reason and a significant change in the current
balance of forces could make it possible to launch the flights of
civilian or military aircraft to and from the recently renovated
airport near Stepanakert. Azerbaijan does not change its policy of
isolating Karabakh, and it is military rather than political guarantees
that are needed for such flights.
Experts say such guarantee could be military presence in Karabakh of
one or more states. Some do not exclude that the new military-technical
agreement between Armenia and Russia involves the deployment in
Karabakh of new powerful missile systems and certain security
guarantees from Russia.
Speaking at a meeting with the heads of all branches of government
on January 15, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan described the
Armenian-Russian cooperation as the core of Armenia's security. But
this cooperation does not apply to Karabakh yet, and the Russian
authorities have never hidden their desire to send peacekeepers
to Karabakh.
Moreover, last year the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO), a Russia-led defense pact of six former Soviet countries,
including Armenia, got permission from the United Nations for carrying
out peacekeeping missions. It is not excluded that the first mission
of the CSTO will be the operation of the Stepanakert airport and,
under this pretext, the introduction of Russian troops into Karabakh.
During a meeting with journalists on January 18 Ohanyan said that
"the Armenian-Russian military-technical cooperation will enter a new
stage." "There is an issue as to distributing the supplies of weapons
(of the Russian military base) throughout the territory of Armenia
and not only in Gyumri," said the minister.
It is no coincidence that Nezavisimaya Gazeta, an influential
newspaper in Russia, has published an article that says that "a
possible aggravation of the Karabakh conflict forces Moscow to shift
contract-based servicemen to the region, Russia is enhancing the
military preparedness of its troops and armed allied forces in the
South Caucasus."
The plan of manning Russian military base N102 in Gyumri with
contract-based servicemen had been fulfilled by January 15. During
half a year their number has been doubled. At the same time, the number
of staff personnel of the base remains the same and is about 5,000 men.
"Military experts explain that the accelerated rate of putting the
102nd base on a professional basis is connected with a possible abrupt
change in the geopolitical situation there, which is a threat to Russia
and its allies. These scenarios are connected with the possible start
by Azerbaijan of hostilities against Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, as well as the possible military action by Israel against
Iran," writes the newspaper.
In fact, Russia, introducing forces into Karabakh under the pretext
of the Stepanakert airport will also gain access to the Iranian border.
Other states have not yet reacted to such a possible scenario. The
mediators only advise that Armenia should not provoke the escalation
of the situation by opening the airport. But it is possible that the
Western countries and Russia already have an agreement on the joint
use of the airport in the Karabakh capital. They already jointly use
the Russian airport of Ulyanovsk (for Afghan operations).
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow
21.01.13 | 12:40
Late last week the subject of the Stepanakert airport unexpectedly
again appeared in the news as information came from Karabakh that the
first Yerevan-Stepanakert commercial flight could be operated within
days (the fourth time such a prediction has surfaced).
Enlarge Photo Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan
In response, the Azerbaijani government ordered the country's air
defense forces to shoot down civilian aircraft "illegally entering
its airspace".
Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan, in turn, said that Armenia's
anti-aircraft defense will ensure the safety of civilian aircraft
flying from Yerevan to Stepanakert.
Only a very good reason and a significant change in the current
balance of forces could make it possible to launch the flights of
civilian or military aircraft to and from the recently renovated
airport near Stepanakert. Azerbaijan does not change its policy of
isolating Karabakh, and it is military rather than political guarantees
that are needed for such flights.
Experts say such guarantee could be military presence in Karabakh of
one or more states. Some do not exclude that the new military-technical
agreement between Armenia and Russia involves the deployment in
Karabakh of new powerful missile systems and certain security
guarantees from Russia.
Speaking at a meeting with the heads of all branches of government
on January 15, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan described the
Armenian-Russian cooperation as the core of Armenia's security. But
this cooperation does not apply to Karabakh yet, and the Russian
authorities have never hidden their desire to send peacekeepers
to Karabakh.
Moreover, last year the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO), a Russia-led defense pact of six former Soviet countries,
including Armenia, got permission from the United Nations for carrying
out peacekeeping missions. It is not excluded that the first mission
of the CSTO will be the operation of the Stepanakert airport and,
under this pretext, the introduction of Russian troops into Karabakh.
During a meeting with journalists on January 18 Ohanyan said that
"the Armenian-Russian military-technical cooperation will enter a new
stage." "There is an issue as to distributing the supplies of weapons
(of the Russian military base) throughout the territory of Armenia
and not only in Gyumri," said the minister.
It is no coincidence that Nezavisimaya Gazeta, an influential
newspaper in Russia, has published an article that says that "a
possible aggravation of the Karabakh conflict forces Moscow to shift
contract-based servicemen to the region, Russia is enhancing the
military preparedness of its troops and armed allied forces in the
South Caucasus."
The plan of manning Russian military base N102 in Gyumri with
contract-based servicemen had been fulfilled by January 15. During
half a year their number has been doubled. At the same time, the number
of staff personnel of the base remains the same and is about 5,000 men.
"Military experts explain that the accelerated rate of putting the
102nd base on a professional basis is connected with a possible abrupt
change in the geopolitical situation there, which is a threat to Russia
and its allies. These scenarios are connected with the possible start
by Azerbaijan of hostilities against Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, as well as the possible military action by Israel against
Iran," writes the newspaper.
In fact, Russia, introducing forces into Karabakh under the pretext
of the Stepanakert airport will also gain access to the Iranian border.
Other states have not yet reacted to such a possible scenario. The
mediators only advise that Armenia should not provoke the escalation
of the situation by opening the airport. But it is possible that the
Western countries and Russia already have an agreement on the joint
use of the airport in the Karabakh capital. They already jointly use
the Russian airport of Ulyanovsk (for Afghan operations).