Tweet
IRAN-AZERBAIJAN RELATIONS: MINOR DISPUTE, FAR-REACHING CONSEQUENCES? - ANALYSIS
By: Geopolitical Monitor
http://www.eurasiareview.com/24012013-iran-azerbaijan-relations-minor-dispute-far-reaching-consequences-analysis/
January 24, 2013
By James Bell
A lot has been said recently about Iran-Azerbaijani relations, which
is interesting because many people assume that the relationship
between these two countries doesn't have much of an impact on the
world stage. Of course, this assumption is wrong, and Iran-Azerbaijani
affairs actually influence a wide variety of issues, from global
energy supply to the potential for an Israeli strike on Iran.
Iranian and Azerbaijani leaders have often espoused the motto of 'one
nation, two states,' quite like the Turkish and Azerbaijani political
leaders who constantly refer to the strong bonds that exists between
their respective peoples. Much has been written about the 'natural'
relations between these two states, and many feel that the idea has
been manipulated in order to play on historical and ethnic ties,
rather than reflecting some kind of spontaneous expression of real
solidarity.
Azerbaijan - Iran Relations
Relations between Baku and Tehran date back to when independent
Azerbaijan was once apart of the neighbouring Iranian state before
Russia invaded in the early 19th century. The diaspora also plays a
part, as it is estimated that there are over 20 million Azerbaijani
Turks living in Iran today.
Economic growth in Azerbaijan is met with fear by officials in Iran.
With the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in place, there is the potential
for explosive economic growth in Azerbaijan. This could potentially
stir up southern Azerbaijani-Turkish ethnic consciousness within Iran,
which in turn could cause a great deal of sectarian unrest. Although
energy cooperation is a major factor in Iran-Azerbaijani relations, it
is doubtful that this cooperation will ever develop to the point where
it takes on a strategic element. This is in part due to the growing
influence of outside players, particularly Western states who wish to
control energy resources in the area and block any and all Iranian
attempts to exert their influence.
Relations between the two states have recently soured to what can
almost certainly be considered an all-time low. The worsening
relationship has caused both sides to search for immediate security
support from their respective allies. Azerbaijan has earmarked a
considerable amount of its newfound energy wealth for defence
purposes, and it has also been pursuing closer economic,
technological, and military relations with Israel and the US. For its
part, Iran has continued to deepen its own strategic relations with
Russia and China.
In order to give itself a strategic lever against the Azerbaijan
government, Iran has also been developing economic and strategic
relations with Armenia, a country that actively supports the cause of
self-determination in Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region. The
Iran-Armenian connection could conceivably serve as a backchannel for
moving Iranian arms into Nagorno-Karabakh, frustrating any Azerbaijani
hope that their new allies and material capabilities will lead to a
resolution of the issue.
There is another interesting element to the US-Israel-Azerbaijan
triangle in regards to Iran. Some observers have speculated that
Azerbaijan could serve as a launching pad for an Israeli air attack on
nuclear sites in Iran.
As far as Azerbaijan is concerned, it will likely continue to seek the
support of both the US and Israel and try to build itself up as a key
influence within the area. President Aliyev has stated time and time
again that no attack on Iran will originate from Azerbaijan. However
if Iran becomes actively involved in Nagorno-Karabakh or the US feels
that Iran has crossed the nuclear threshold, his stance could end up
being weakened.
James Bell is a contributor to Geopoliticalmonitor.com
About the author:
Geopolitical Monitor
Geopoliticalmonitor.com is an open-source intelligence collection and
forecasting service, providing provide research, analysis and up to
date coverage on situations and events that have a substantive impact
on political, military and economic affairs.
By: Geopolitical Monitor
http://www.eurasiareview.com/24012013-iran-azerbaijan-relations-minor-dispute-far-reaching-consequences-analysis/
January 24, 2013
By James Bell
A lot has been said recently about Iran-Azerbaijani relations, which
is interesting because many people assume that the relationship
between these two countries doesn't have much of an impact on the
world stage. Of course, this assumption is wrong, and Iran-Azerbaijani
affairs actually influence a wide variety of issues, from global
energy supply to the potential for an Israeli strike on Iran.
Iranian and Azerbaijani leaders have often espoused the motto of 'one
nation, two states,' quite like the Turkish and Azerbaijani political
leaders who constantly refer to the strong bonds that exists between
their respective peoples. Much has been written about the 'natural'
relations between these two states, and many feel that the idea has
been manipulated in order to play on historical and ethnic ties,
rather than reflecting some kind of spontaneous expression of real
solidarity.
Azerbaijan - Iran Relations
Relations between Baku and Tehran date back to when independent
Azerbaijan was once apart of the neighbouring Iranian state before
Russia invaded in the early 19th century. The diaspora also plays a
part, as it is estimated that there are over 20 million Azerbaijani
Turks living in Iran today.
Economic growth in Azerbaijan is met with fear by officials in Iran.
With the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in place, there is the potential
for explosive economic growth in Azerbaijan. This could potentially
stir up southern Azerbaijani-Turkish ethnic consciousness within Iran,
which in turn could cause a great deal of sectarian unrest. Although
energy cooperation is a major factor in Iran-Azerbaijani relations, it
is doubtful that this cooperation will ever develop to the point where
it takes on a strategic element. This is in part due to the growing
influence of outside players, particularly Western states who wish to
control energy resources in the area and block any and all Iranian
attempts to exert their influence.
Relations between the two states have recently soured to what can
almost certainly be considered an all-time low. The worsening
relationship has caused both sides to search for immediate security
support from their respective allies. Azerbaijan has earmarked a
considerable amount of its newfound energy wealth for defence
purposes, and it has also been pursuing closer economic,
technological, and military relations with Israel and the US. For its
part, Iran has continued to deepen its own strategic relations with
Russia and China.
In order to give itself a strategic lever against the Azerbaijan
government, Iran has also been developing economic and strategic
relations with Armenia, a country that actively supports the cause of
self-determination in Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region. The
Iran-Armenian connection could conceivably serve as a backchannel for
moving Iranian arms into Nagorno-Karabakh, frustrating any Azerbaijani
hope that their new allies and material capabilities will lead to a
resolution of the issue.
There is another interesting element to the US-Israel-Azerbaijan
triangle in regards to Iran. Some observers have speculated that
Azerbaijan could serve as a launching pad for an Israeli air attack on
nuclear sites in Iran.
As far as Azerbaijan is concerned, it will likely continue to seek the
support of both the US and Israel and try to build itself up as a key
influence within the area. President Aliyev has stated time and time
again that no attack on Iran will originate from Azerbaijan. However
if Iran becomes actively involved in Nagorno-Karabakh or the US feels
that Iran has crossed the nuclear threshold, his stance could end up
being weakened.
James Bell is a contributor to Geopoliticalmonitor.com
About the author:
Geopolitical Monitor
Geopoliticalmonitor.com is an open-source intelligence collection and
forecasting service, providing provide research, analysis and up to
date coverage on situations and events that have a substantive impact
on political, military and economic affairs.