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TBILISI: NATO-Russia: new balance in the South Caucasus

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  • TBILISI: NATO-Russia: new balance in the South Caucasus

    The Messenger, Georgia
    July 1 2005

    NATO-Russia: new balance in the South Caucasus

    The balance of power in the South Caucasus is shifting. The agreement
    reached regarding the withdrawal of the Russian military bases from
    the territory of Georgia along with Georgia and Azerbaijan
    intensifying their efforts to integrate into NATO suggest that
    Russian military influence is on the wane while NATO is gaining
    influence.

    Speaking in Moscow on June 24, NATO General Secretary Jaap de Hoop
    Scheffer responded to questions as to whether Georgia and Ukraine
    will become NATO members by saying, "the door of NATO is open for
    everybody," but the integration of Georgia and Ukraine "will not be
    fulfilled as quickly as Georgia and Ukraine want because these
    countries are not ready for NATO yet." Scheffer denied rumors that as
    soon as the Russian military bases leave Georgia they will be rapidly
    replaced by NATO military forces. "We do not have such plans,
    intentions or desires. NATO simply does not have enough military
    forces to be stationed everywhere," he said.

    Nevertheless, despite repeated statements of Georgian and NATO
    officials that NATO bases will not be deployed in Georgia, it is
    clear that in parallel with the weakening of Russian military
    influence, NATO's cooperation with the South Caucasus countries is
    deepening. It is clear too that this greatly irritates Russia. "The
    increased attention that NATO is paying to the South Caucasus and
    Central Asia cannot but irritate Russia," Deputy Speaker of the
    Russian Duma Liubov Sliska stated during a meeting with Scheffer.

    Sliska added that NATO's increasing influence in the region could
    jeopardize the peaceful resolution of conflicts in the southern
    Caucasus. "There is the possibility that the appearance of this new
    strong military-political player in these countries could complicate
    the elaboration of those formats that were established during the
    negotiation processes. This could create a serious risk," he said as
    quoted by Rezonansi.

    This should be of little concern as the ongoing conflicts are highly
    unlikely ever to be resolved through "the established formats of the
    negotiations" which are intended primarily to maintain Russia's
    influence in the region. Indeed, it is widely accepted in Georgia
    that the peaceful resolution of the conflicts in Abkhazia and South
    Ossetia requires the internationalization of the peace process.
    Although NATO has repeatedly stressed that it will not intervene
    directly in the conflicts, the increased attention it is paying to
    the region is to be welcomed.

    This increased attention can be seen in a statement by Robert
    Simmons, the special representative of NATO to the South Caucasus and
    Asia, who said last week that if Armenia did not want Russian
    military bases to remain on its territory, NATO would be happy to
    assist. Few analysts expect Yerevan to respond to this offer, not
    only because of the long-established alliance between Russia and
    Armenia, but also Moscow's support of Yerevan in Nagorno-Karabakh,
    but the statement does raise the possibility of deepening
    collaboration with the west.

    Furthermore, on June 16, Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Vardan
    Oskanian presented the NATO Council with a program of individual
    collaboration between Armenia and NATO. Oskanian named this document
    a "turning point" in NATO-Armenian relations, suggesting that Armenia
    is following Georgia and Azerbaijan in their efforts to join NATO. It
    remains to be seen whether Yerevan will be able to achieve this while
    retaining good relations with Russia.

    Georgian membership of NATO remains some way off, while membership of
    the European Union lies even further. Nevertheless, it is a fact that
    Georgian and Ukrainian velvet revolutions have led to a shift in the
    balance of power in the region, particularly in leading to an
    acceleration in NATO's eastward expansion.
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