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DECISION 2013: RAFFI HOVANNISIAN'S PHENOMENON AND FACTOR IN POST-ELECTION ARMENIA
VOTE 2013 | 20.02.13 | 10:56
NAZIK ARMENAKYAN
ArmeniaNow
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The February 18 presidential election in Armenia has proved to
be unexpected not only for the "modest" level of Sargsyan's score
(about 59 percent) considering predictions of his landslide by a wide
margin, but also by the number of votes polled by his main opposition
challenger, Raffi Hovannisian (about 37 percent).
Many political analysts and experts say it is unprecedented given
the uphill battle the opposition candidate has had to wage against
electoral fraud as well as 'administrative resource' and power wielded
by the authorities.
Allegations about the government plan to give Hovannisian an "honorable
second place" were in the media long before the election.
Even after the publication of the early results of the vote, another
opposition candidate Hrant Bagratyan hinted at the fact that in the
beginning the government may have even encouraged some people to vote
for Hovannisian, but at one point had to interrupt his "winning march",
sensing danger to its candidate's reelection.
The government indeed needed a decent "number two", and it is not a
coincidence that on Tuesday, referring to the 37 percent of the vote
polled by Hovannisian, chief of presidential staff Vigen Sargsyan
dismissed accusations from some international observers that the
elections were not genuinely competitive. However, the authorities
apparently did not expect so many people to go to the polls to cast
their ballots for Hovannisian.
More than 500,000 votes in Armenia, where, according to official
figures, there are about 2.5 million voters, but according to
unofficial counts the number of eligible voters barely reaches 1.8
million, and with a 60-percent turnout should have brought Hovannisian
a convincing victory. In fact, Hovannisian declared himself to be the
rightful winner and president-elect, indicating that he was ready to
fight to the end.
The phenomenon of Raffi stands out during the current political season
in Armenia. The man whose election campaign was covered mostly in an
ironic light - and President Sargsyan assessed it as a "campaign of
handshakes" - suddenly proved to skeptics that not only the so-called
protest mass in Armenia was ready for fair elections. Spin doctors
will still have to properly evaluate this phenomenon, but it seems
patently clear even now that a lot of the supporters of the opposition
Armenian National Congress, Dashnaktsutyun and the "alternative"
Prosperous Armenia Party, the three major political forces that did
not take part in the election, also gave their votes to Hovannisian,
as did a considerable part of the civil society.
The most obvious outcome of the ballot is that from now onward all
will at least have to reckon with this fact. And despite the fact that
Russian President Vladimir Putin has already congratulated Sargsyan
on his reelection as president, post-election events are still likely
to unfold in Armenia. Hundreds of people had turned out for a press
conference that Hovannisian called in Liberty Square on Tuesday.
Addressing media and them he suggested that Sargsyan should concede
to "the people's victory" and start transferring power to the people
or face "adequate steps". Thousands are also likely to turn out for
another such gathering in Liberty Square that Hovannisian called for
today, February 20.
It is yet difficult to say what the phenomenon of Raffi will end in.
It is quite possible that more rallies will be held, or that
Hovannisian will be offered a high position in the Sargsyan
government. Consolidation around him of other opposition forces
is also possible. But one thing is clear now - the Raffi factor is
strongly present in post-election Armenia and is likely to last.
VOTE 2013 | 20.02.13 | 10:56
NAZIK ARMENAKYAN
ArmeniaNow
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The February 18 presidential election in Armenia has proved to
be unexpected not only for the "modest" level of Sargsyan's score
(about 59 percent) considering predictions of his landslide by a wide
margin, but also by the number of votes polled by his main opposition
challenger, Raffi Hovannisian (about 37 percent).
Many political analysts and experts say it is unprecedented given
the uphill battle the opposition candidate has had to wage against
electoral fraud as well as 'administrative resource' and power wielded
by the authorities.
Allegations about the government plan to give Hovannisian an "honorable
second place" were in the media long before the election.
Even after the publication of the early results of the vote, another
opposition candidate Hrant Bagratyan hinted at the fact that in the
beginning the government may have even encouraged some people to vote
for Hovannisian, but at one point had to interrupt his "winning march",
sensing danger to its candidate's reelection.
The government indeed needed a decent "number two", and it is not a
coincidence that on Tuesday, referring to the 37 percent of the vote
polled by Hovannisian, chief of presidential staff Vigen Sargsyan
dismissed accusations from some international observers that the
elections were not genuinely competitive. However, the authorities
apparently did not expect so many people to go to the polls to cast
their ballots for Hovannisian.
More than 500,000 votes in Armenia, where, according to official
figures, there are about 2.5 million voters, but according to
unofficial counts the number of eligible voters barely reaches 1.8
million, and with a 60-percent turnout should have brought Hovannisian
a convincing victory. In fact, Hovannisian declared himself to be the
rightful winner and president-elect, indicating that he was ready to
fight to the end.
The phenomenon of Raffi stands out during the current political season
in Armenia. The man whose election campaign was covered mostly in an
ironic light - and President Sargsyan assessed it as a "campaign of
handshakes" - suddenly proved to skeptics that not only the so-called
protest mass in Armenia was ready for fair elections. Spin doctors
will still have to properly evaluate this phenomenon, but it seems
patently clear even now that a lot of the supporters of the opposition
Armenian National Congress, Dashnaktsutyun and the "alternative"
Prosperous Armenia Party, the three major political forces that did
not take part in the election, also gave their votes to Hovannisian,
as did a considerable part of the civil society.
The most obvious outcome of the ballot is that from now onward all
will at least have to reckon with this fact. And despite the fact that
Russian President Vladimir Putin has already congratulated Sargsyan
on his reelection as president, post-election events are still likely
to unfold in Armenia. Hundreds of people had turned out for a press
conference that Hovannisian called in Liberty Square on Tuesday.
Addressing media and them he suggested that Sargsyan should concede
to "the people's victory" and start transferring power to the people
or face "adequate steps". Thousands are also likely to turn out for
another such gathering in Liberty Square that Hovannisian called for
today, February 20.
It is yet difficult to say what the phenomenon of Raffi will end in.
It is quite possible that more rallies will be held, or that
Hovannisian will be offered a high position in the Sargsyan
government. Consolidation around him of other opposition forces
is also possible. But one thing is clear now - the Raffi factor is
strongly present in post-election Armenia and is likely to last.