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CAN AN ARMENIAN SPRING COME WITH ONE FLOWER?
by Simon Maghakyan
http://www.armenianweekly.com/2013/02/21/can-an-armenian-spring-come-with-one-flower/
February 21, 2013
For the first time in post-Soviet Armenia's history, a
non-establishment candidate has almost won the presidency. Liberal
candidate and Heritage Party nominee Raffi Hovannisian's supporters,
like those of former officially unsuccessful candidates, assert that
the Feb. 18, 2013 Presidential Election was rigged. His official
36.8 percent-against conservative incumbent Serge Sarkisian's 58.6
percent-is widely viewed to not reflect the actual vote. Hovannisian's
supporters cite the near 70 percent their candidate received in
Armenia's second largest city-Gyumri. Unlike in the rest of the
country, Gyumri's mayor is not a local strongman of incumbent President
Serge Sarkisian and his Republican Party.
Raffi Hovannisian and other leaders addressed a huge crowd gathered at
Freedom Square on Feb. 20 in support of Hovannisian. (Photo by Khatchig
Mouradian, The Armenian Weekly) Hovannisian's high performance has
brought hope to many, particularly in the light of the wide speculation
that Sarkisian would handily win reelection. Hovanissian's performance,
which some minimize as a mere vote of protest against the regime, is
also surprising in the light of the lack of endorsements from other
opposition forces, such as Prosperous Armenia, Armenian National
Congress, and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation. Whether this
was an inability to build coalitions or a strategy of direct outreach
is unclear.
Hovannisian has a record in both. In the latest parliamentary
elections, Hovannisian partnered with another former Foreign
Minister-Alexander Arzumanyan. The fraction split after securing a
humble number of seats and disagreeing over their pledges and plans.
This may be partly why Hovannisian launched a presidential campaign of
direct outreach, which often included random appearances in different
neighborhoods to shake hands. His outreach to young people also
involved an appearance on ArmComedy, Armenia's popular version of
Jon Stewart's The Daily Show with occasional Stephen Colbert-like
nationalist sarcasm. Hovanissian told the hosts that he cancelled
everything as soon as he got their invitation.
Hovanissian also cancelled his comfortable life in his native
California, relocating to Armenia in the aftermath of the 1988
earthquake. A lawyer and diplomat, he soon accepted to become the
newly-independent country's first Foreign Minister in 1991 and fax
"Armenia is free. Please recognize" to the world. Yet his diplomacy,
charisma, and icon of fair-mindedness seem to contradict some of his
arguably hardline positions. Hovanissian wants Armenia to recognize
the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh as a free country, which many
believe would hinder the hitherto unfruitful peace negotiations and
even be used as an excuse by conflict party Azerbaijan for a military
attack against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. It is particularly
offensive for incumbent President Serge Sarkisian to hear hints that
he isn't doing his best for the region he hails from and fought for.
Yet Hovanissian is the only major political figure to recently visit
Azerbaijan's capital Baku.
Hovanissian's perceived hardline position on Nagorno-Karabakh, as
well as the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, may explain western
powers' reluctance to support his case. Serge Sarkisian, his critics
argue, has been more than accommodating in demands to reconcile
with Turkey, in part because of the West's implicit recognition of
his first, 2008 election. The New York Times bluntly articulates
Washington's steak in the Feb. 18, 2013 Armenian election: "maintain
stability in a country that has become an increasingly important,
if uneasy, United States ally in monitoring Iran's nuclear ambitions."
In the eyes of some, international observers' monitoring results
seemed to reflect Washington's interests (while a non-governmental
observer reported massive ballot staffing). A group of activists
interrupted the press conference by official observers and read a
statement about the fraud. They didn't mention Hovanissian's name and
only identified as "Citizens of the Republic of Armenia." One of them
screamed in Armenian, "Do you have such elections back home?"
Presidential elections, save the first one, have always been divisive
and sometimes bloody in Armenia. All candidates who won second
place and their supporters felt that the election was rigged. Unlike
Hovanissian, however, these candidates were or had been a key part
of the establishment and had influential supporters with eyes on
power and resources. Most of those forces have been quiet, waiting
for the next comeback opportunity. Hovannisian's failure or choice
not to unite opposition forces is an apparent shortcoming. But it may
have been a blessing, as a stronger challenge might have actuated more
intense election fraud. An Armenian saying advocating for unity states,
"Spring won't come with one flower." But it can start with one.
by Simon Maghakyan
http://www.armenianweekly.com/2013/02/21/can-an-armenian-spring-come-with-one-flower/
February 21, 2013
For the first time in post-Soviet Armenia's history, a
non-establishment candidate has almost won the presidency. Liberal
candidate and Heritage Party nominee Raffi Hovannisian's supporters,
like those of former officially unsuccessful candidates, assert that
the Feb. 18, 2013 Presidential Election was rigged. His official
36.8 percent-against conservative incumbent Serge Sarkisian's 58.6
percent-is widely viewed to not reflect the actual vote. Hovannisian's
supporters cite the near 70 percent their candidate received in
Armenia's second largest city-Gyumri. Unlike in the rest of the
country, Gyumri's mayor is not a local strongman of incumbent President
Serge Sarkisian and his Republican Party.
Raffi Hovannisian and other leaders addressed a huge crowd gathered at
Freedom Square on Feb. 20 in support of Hovannisian. (Photo by Khatchig
Mouradian, The Armenian Weekly) Hovannisian's high performance has
brought hope to many, particularly in the light of the wide speculation
that Sarkisian would handily win reelection. Hovanissian's performance,
which some minimize as a mere vote of protest against the regime, is
also surprising in the light of the lack of endorsements from other
opposition forces, such as Prosperous Armenia, Armenian National
Congress, and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation. Whether this
was an inability to build coalitions or a strategy of direct outreach
is unclear.
Hovannisian has a record in both. In the latest parliamentary
elections, Hovannisian partnered with another former Foreign
Minister-Alexander Arzumanyan. The fraction split after securing a
humble number of seats and disagreeing over their pledges and plans.
This may be partly why Hovannisian launched a presidential campaign of
direct outreach, which often included random appearances in different
neighborhoods to shake hands. His outreach to young people also
involved an appearance on ArmComedy, Armenia's popular version of
Jon Stewart's The Daily Show with occasional Stephen Colbert-like
nationalist sarcasm. Hovanissian told the hosts that he cancelled
everything as soon as he got their invitation.
Hovanissian also cancelled his comfortable life in his native
California, relocating to Armenia in the aftermath of the 1988
earthquake. A lawyer and diplomat, he soon accepted to become the
newly-independent country's first Foreign Minister in 1991 and fax
"Armenia is free. Please recognize" to the world. Yet his diplomacy,
charisma, and icon of fair-mindedness seem to contradict some of his
arguably hardline positions. Hovanissian wants Armenia to recognize
the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh as a free country, which many
believe would hinder the hitherto unfruitful peace negotiations and
even be used as an excuse by conflict party Azerbaijan for a military
attack against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. It is particularly
offensive for incumbent President Serge Sarkisian to hear hints that
he isn't doing his best for the region he hails from and fought for.
Yet Hovanissian is the only major political figure to recently visit
Azerbaijan's capital Baku.
Hovanissian's perceived hardline position on Nagorno-Karabakh, as
well as the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, may explain western
powers' reluctance to support his case. Serge Sarkisian, his critics
argue, has been more than accommodating in demands to reconcile
with Turkey, in part because of the West's implicit recognition of
his first, 2008 election. The New York Times bluntly articulates
Washington's steak in the Feb. 18, 2013 Armenian election: "maintain
stability in a country that has become an increasingly important,
if uneasy, United States ally in monitoring Iran's nuclear ambitions."
In the eyes of some, international observers' monitoring results
seemed to reflect Washington's interests (while a non-governmental
observer reported massive ballot staffing). A group of activists
interrupted the press conference by official observers and read a
statement about the fraud. They didn't mention Hovanissian's name and
only identified as "Citizens of the Republic of Armenia." One of them
screamed in Armenian, "Do you have such elections back home?"
Presidential elections, save the first one, have always been divisive
and sometimes bloody in Armenia. All candidates who won second
place and their supporters felt that the election was rigged. Unlike
Hovanissian, however, these candidates were or had been a key part
of the establishment and had influential supporters with eyes on
power and resources. Most of those forces have been quiet, waiting
for the next comeback opportunity. Hovannisian's failure or choice
not to unite opposition forces is an apparent shortcoming. But it may
have been a blessing, as a stronger challenge might have actuated more
intense election fraud. An Armenian saying advocating for unity states,
"Spring won't come with one flower." But it can start with one.