Tweet
ARMENIAN SPRING IN THE MAKING?
Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso, Italy
Feb 27 2013
by Mikayel Zolyan | Yerevan
Opposition refuses to accept the official results of the Presidential
election, as former Foreign Minister Raffi Hovannisian announces the
"Revolution of Hello"
There were few surprises expected in the presidential elections on
February 18, 2013 in Armenia. Analysts, politicians and journalists
seemed to agree that the incumbent Sargsyan was set to win a victory
with a comfortable margin. The main political rivals of the ruling
Republican party, including three of the five political parties
represented in the parliament refrained from taking part in the
elections. As for those opposition leaders who were running in the
elections, including the former minister of foreign affairs, Raffi
Hovannisian, few observers viewed them as serious challengers.
Hovannisian, US born diaspora Armenian, who repatriated in early 1990s,
distinguished himself with an innovative campaigning strategy, going
door to door, greeting people and talking to them. However, he was not
backed by strong party machine, and some commentators ridiculed his
way of campaigning as imitation of Western political technologies,
unsuitable for Armenia's post-Soviet realities. There were some
incidents during the campaign, such as unsuccessful assassination
attempt against one of the candidates, former Soviet dissident Paruyr
Hayrikyan, but in general the campaign seemed to mostly calm and
even boring.
Thus, the election outcomes came as a surprise for many. Official
results awarded victory to incumbent president Sargsyan, with over 58
% of the votes, while Hovannisian received just under 37 %. This is
quite an impressive result for opposition in a post-Soviet country:
in neighboring Azerbaijan incumbent Aliev received 87 % of the votes in
2008. Another impressive achievement for Hovannisian: official results
acknowledged that he won several major towns, including Armenia's
second largest city Gyumri. However, his supporters believe that
the actual number of votes he received was much higher. Hovannisian
refused to accept the official results, proclaimed himself the winner
and called on his supporters to go out on the streets.
Of course, it is hard to assess the veracity of Hovannisian's claims
at this point. In any case, the level of trust towards elections in
Armenian society is extremely low. Previous elections in Armenia have
been marred by claims of fraud and massive post-election protests
suppressed by force. The latest protests lead to a violent government
crackdown on March 1 2008, which left ten people dead, as dozens were
injured and arrested.
A ballot for breakfast As a reflection of this atmosphere of mistrust,
thousands of voters spoilt their ballots on February 18. Sometimes, the
ways of expressing protest were quite bizarre. Some disillusioned young
citizens "voted" for pop-culture heroes, e.g. vintage blockbusters
star Chuck Norris or reality TV diva Kim Kardashyan (who happens to
be ethnic Armenian).
One disgruntled voter ate his ballot at the polling station, explaining
that "it is easier to swallow a piece of paper than to digest five more
years of the regime". A group of activists expressed their protest
by dancing to global YouTube hit "Gangnam Style" in front of the
Central Election Commission office. After the official results came,
social networks like Facebook were full of accusations of fraud on
specific polling stations, coming mostly from people who served as
election committee members, proxies or monitors.
Hovannisian held several successive rallies at the Freedom Square in
central Yerevan and in the regions of Armenia, attended by thousands
of people. He was joined by several important figures who supported
his claims, including not only politicians, but also one of Armenia's
most famous singer/songwriters Ruben Hakhverdyan. Hovannisian met
with president Sargsyan in his office on February 21 in order to
negotiate a way out of the political crisis, a step was criticized by
hard-line opposition supporters. However, the two politicians failed
to reach a compromise and Hovannisian continues to hold rallies both
in Yerevan and in the regions of Armenia. Hovannisian even went as
far as to claim that the movement represented a peaceful revolution,
and even coined a name for it, "revolution of hello", hinting at his
pre-election campaign strategy.
International congratulations
Armenian activists protesting in front of OSCE election monitoring
mission office (PanArmenian Photos) In spite of all that, the
assessment of elections by the international community has been
mostly positive, albeit with some criticism: Sargsyan has already
received congratulations upon his re-election, not only from Putin,
Ahmadinejad and several post-Soviet leaders, but also from western
governments including those of France and Italy.
Representatives of EU and US State Department gave generally positive
assessments, while criticizing some aspects of the elections. This
assessment was probably based on the OSCE monitoring mission's
statement praised the elections as "well administered... with respect
for fundamental freedoms", but criticized the lack of competition and
misuse of "administrative resource" by the government. As Armenian
analyst Samvel Martirosyan says, the monitors' report seems to
have been written before the voting day: thus, they criticized the
elections for being non-competitive, while in the light of the election
results and post-election developments this assessment seems somewhat
premature. In the past international monitors have been accused of
stamping positive assessments on rather dubious elections, which
has diminished the trust towards them among many Armenians. This
mistrust was manifested by young activists who attempted to disrupt
the observers' press conference on February 19th and demonstrated in
front of the OSCE/ODIHR observing mission office on the following days.
It seems that the pro-government camp was not quite ready for the
post-election developments. Analyst Gegham Baghdasaryan says the
government thought everything was under control during the election
campaign: "while previous president Robert Kocharyan was outright
authoritarian, Sargsyan experimented with allowing more media
freedom and freedom of assembly, thinking that the government still
had ways to control the situation... however, reality turned out more
complicated". Even though opposition heavy-weights like Armenia's first
president Levon Ter-Petrosyan were not running, the elections proved
that there is a substantial anti-government electorate in Armenia,
which is ready to mobilize around new leaders. Ironically, the fact
that several opposition parties stayed out of the elections, proved
unfortunate from the government's point of view, since it allowed
the opposition electorate to consolidate around a single candidate.
The government and police response In any case the government
response to the protests has so far been quite reserved, compared with
post-Soviet standards, as well as Armenia's previous experience. Of
course, some ruling party members' comments were patronizing and
dismissive, and sometimes outright insulting. Thus, social networks
fumed over comments by a ruling party MP Hayk Babukhanyan, who said
that "only homosexuals, heretics and simply non-conscious people voted
for Hovannisian". However, such comments have so far been voiced by
secondary representatives of the ruling party, while major figures
have either stayed silent, or remained relatively respectful in their
words. When it comes to handling the protests, Armenian police has so
far been more professional and less heavy-handed, especially compared
to the events of 2008.
At this point it is hard to predict which way the developments in
Armenia would swing. On the one hand, it seems that the protesters
do not have a clear strategy. Hovannisian has vowed to struggle until
the end, using peaceful methods. It is not quite clear, however, what
methods of peaceful struggle can be used, except for rallies, which,
as experience shows, tend to exhaust themselves as the time goes by.
The incumbent government has received statements of supports from
both East and West, while international media seems quite indifferent
to developments in Armenia. On the other hand, it is also clear that
mobilization of the sort that is taking place in Armenia itself would
not simply fade away. Cracks may start appearing in the government camp
if the movement continues to grow wider. As one opposition supporter
said "they [i.e. the government] owe us a spring, and we will take it,
one way or another".
http://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Regions-and-countries/Armenia/Armenian-Spring-in-the-Making-131350
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso, Italy
Feb 27 2013
by Mikayel Zolyan | Yerevan
Opposition refuses to accept the official results of the Presidential
election, as former Foreign Minister Raffi Hovannisian announces the
"Revolution of Hello"
There were few surprises expected in the presidential elections on
February 18, 2013 in Armenia. Analysts, politicians and journalists
seemed to agree that the incumbent Sargsyan was set to win a victory
with a comfortable margin. The main political rivals of the ruling
Republican party, including three of the five political parties
represented in the parliament refrained from taking part in the
elections. As for those opposition leaders who were running in the
elections, including the former minister of foreign affairs, Raffi
Hovannisian, few observers viewed them as serious challengers.
Hovannisian, US born diaspora Armenian, who repatriated in early 1990s,
distinguished himself with an innovative campaigning strategy, going
door to door, greeting people and talking to them. However, he was not
backed by strong party machine, and some commentators ridiculed his
way of campaigning as imitation of Western political technologies,
unsuitable for Armenia's post-Soviet realities. There were some
incidents during the campaign, such as unsuccessful assassination
attempt against one of the candidates, former Soviet dissident Paruyr
Hayrikyan, but in general the campaign seemed to mostly calm and
even boring.
Thus, the election outcomes came as a surprise for many. Official
results awarded victory to incumbent president Sargsyan, with over 58
% of the votes, while Hovannisian received just under 37 %. This is
quite an impressive result for opposition in a post-Soviet country:
in neighboring Azerbaijan incumbent Aliev received 87 % of the votes in
2008. Another impressive achievement for Hovannisian: official results
acknowledged that he won several major towns, including Armenia's
second largest city Gyumri. However, his supporters believe that
the actual number of votes he received was much higher. Hovannisian
refused to accept the official results, proclaimed himself the winner
and called on his supporters to go out on the streets.
Of course, it is hard to assess the veracity of Hovannisian's claims
at this point. In any case, the level of trust towards elections in
Armenian society is extremely low. Previous elections in Armenia have
been marred by claims of fraud and massive post-election protests
suppressed by force. The latest protests lead to a violent government
crackdown on March 1 2008, which left ten people dead, as dozens were
injured and arrested.
A ballot for breakfast As a reflection of this atmosphere of mistrust,
thousands of voters spoilt their ballots on February 18. Sometimes, the
ways of expressing protest were quite bizarre. Some disillusioned young
citizens "voted" for pop-culture heroes, e.g. vintage blockbusters
star Chuck Norris or reality TV diva Kim Kardashyan (who happens to
be ethnic Armenian).
One disgruntled voter ate his ballot at the polling station, explaining
that "it is easier to swallow a piece of paper than to digest five more
years of the regime". A group of activists expressed their protest
by dancing to global YouTube hit "Gangnam Style" in front of the
Central Election Commission office. After the official results came,
social networks like Facebook were full of accusations of fraud on
specific polling stations, coming mostly from people who served as
election committee members, proxies or monitors.
Hovannisian held several successive rallies at the Freedom Square in
central Yerevan and in the regions of Armenia, attended by thousands
of people. He was joined by several important figures who supported
his claims, including not only politicians, but also one of Armenia's
most famous singer/songwriters Ruben Hakhverdyan. Hovannisian met
with president Sargsyan in his office on February 21 in order to
negotiate a way out of the political crisis, a step was criticized by
hard-line opposition supporters. However, the two politicians failed
to reach a compromise and Hovannisian continues to hold rallies both
in Yerevan and in the regions of Armenia. Hovannisian even went as
far as to claim that the movement represented a peaceful revolution,
and even coined a name for it, "revolution of hello", hinting at his
pre-election campaign strategy.
International congratulations
Armenian activists protesting in front of OSCE election monitoring
mission office (PanArmenian Photos) In spite of all that, the
assessment of elections by the international community has been
mostly positive, albeit with some criticism: Sargsyan has already
received congratulations upon his re-election, not only from Putin,
Ahmadinejad and several post-Soviet leaders, but also from western
governments including those of France and Italy.
Representatives of EU and US State Department gave generally positive
assessments, while criticizing some aspects of the elections. This
assessment was probably based on the OSCE monitoring mission's
statement praised the elections as "well administered... with respect
for fundamental freedoms", but criticized the lack of competition and
misuse of "administrative resource" by the government. As Armenian
analyst Samvel Martirosyan says, the monitors' report seems to
have been written before the voting day: thus, they criticized the
elections for being non-competitive, while in the light of the election
results and post-election developments this assessment seems somewhat
premature. In the past international monitors have been accused of
stamping positive assessments on rather dubious elections, which
has diminished the trust towards them among many Armenians. This
mistrust was manifested by young activists who attempted to disrupt
the observers' press conference on February 19th and demonstrated in
front of the OSCE/ODIHR observing mission office on the following days.
It seems that the pro-government camp was not quite ready for the
post-election developments. Analyst Gegham Baghdasaryan says the
government thought everything was under control during the election
campaign: "while previous president Robert Kocharyan was outright
authoritarian, Sargsyan experimented with allowing more media
freedom and freedom of assembly, thinking that the government still
had ways to control the situation... however, reality turned out more
complicated". Even though opposition heavy-weights like Armenia's first
president Levon Ter-Petrosyan were not running, the elections proved
that there is a substantial anti-government electorate in Armenia,
which is ready to mobilize around new leaders. Ironically, the fact
that several opposition parties stayed out of the elections, proved
unfortunate from the government's point of view, since it allowed
the opposition electorate to consolidate around a single candidate.
The government and police response In any case the government
response to the protests has so far been quite reserved, compared with
post-Soviet standards, as well as Armenia's previous experience. Of
course, some ruling party members' comments were patronizing and
dismissive, and sometimes outright insulting. Thus, social networks
fumed over comments by a ruling party MP Hayk Babukhanyan, who said
that "only homosexuals, heretics and simply non-conscious people voted
for Hovannisian". However, such comments have so far been voiced by
secondary representatives of the ruling party, while major figures
have either stayed silent, or remained relatively respectful in their
words. When it comes to handling the protests, Armenian police has so
far been more professional and less heavy-handed, especially compared
to the events of 2008.
At this point it is hard to predict which way the developments in
Armenia would swing. On the one hand, it seems that the protesters
do not have a clear strategy. Hovannisian has vowed to struggle until
the end, using peaceful methods. It is not quite clear, however, what
methods of peaceful struggle can be used, except for rallies, which,
as experience shows, tend to exhaust themselves as the time goes by.
The incumbent government has received statements of supports from
both East and West, while international media seems quite indifferent
to developments in Armenia. On the other hand, it is also clear that
mobilization of the sort that is taking place in Armenia itself would
not simply fade away. Cracks may start appearing in the government camp
if the movement continues to grow wider. As one opposition supporter
said "they [i.e. the government] owe us a spring, and we will take it,
one way or another".
http://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Regions-and-countries/Armenia/Armenian-Spring-in-the-Making-131350
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress