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  • TOL: An Arms Race Looms?

    Transitions Online, Czech Republic
    July 4 2005

    An Arms Race Looms?


    by Samvel Matirosyan and Alman Mir-Ismail
    4 July 2005

    Armenia and Azerbaijan differ over Russia's decision to pull out of
    bases in Georgia. From EurasiaNet.

    Armenia and Azerbaijan are reacting differently to the Russian
    withdrawal from bases in Georgia. Politicians and pundits in
    Azerbaijan view the move as a potential security threat due in large
    part to Moscow's decision to transfer to Armenia a portion of the
    military hardware now in Georgia. Armenian experts, meanwhile,
    downplay the significance of the transfer, contending that it does
    not alter the existing strategic balance.

    After years of wrangling, Russian and Georgian officials announced on
    30 May that the withdrawal of Russian troops and materiel from the
    Caucasus country would be completed by 2008. Russia's pull-out from
    its two remaining bases on Georgian territory - in Batumi and
    Akhalkalaki - began 1 June with the dispatch of a 15-car train from
    Batumi to Armenia, loaded with ammunition, various equipment and
    anti-aircraft weapons. Political analysts have spent the weeks since
    the announcement of the base-withdrawal deal speculating about its
    geopolitical ramifications. In particular, many have wondered whether
    the Russian move could influence negotiations to end the
    Armenian-Azeri struggle over Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Moscow has mounted diplomatic offensive to dispel the notion that its
    actions could rearrange the geopolitical order in the Caucasus. `The
    withdrawal of part of Russian arms from Georgia to Armenia will not
    change the balance of forces in the Transcaucasus,' Russian Foreign
    Minister Sergey Lavrov told journalists on 14 June.

    Russian defense officials insist that transferred arms and equipment
    will be kept in storage at Russia's 102nd base in Gyumri, in northern
    Armenia, stressing that the Armenian military will not have access to
    the weaponry. `We are going to closely keep the limits set up by the
    [amended 1999] treaty on conventional armaments in Europe,' Russian
    Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said during a 6 June news conference,
    Rosbalt news agency reported. According to Ivanov, most of the
    military equipment and cargo now in Georgia will be shipped back to
    Russia from Black Sea port city of Batumi.

    News of the withdrawal from Georgia initially was applauded in
    Azerbaijan, where officials at first interpreted the move as a sign
    of declining Russian influence in the Caucasus. But approval quickly
    turned into doubt following the announcement that a portion of the
    Russian arms and equipment would be moved to Armenia. On 23 May, the
    Azeri foreign ministry sent a protest note to Moscow, demanding an
    explanation for the transfer. `From the point of view of the law, the
    transfer of arms from one base to the other is quite normal. It
    concerns Armenia and Russia. However, the South Caucasus requires
    demilitarization. Therefore, there is no need to keep in the region
    tanks and other heavy military equipment. We do not consider it
    necessary,' Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov told journalists.

    Speaking at a 25 June military academy graduation ceremony, President
    Ilham Aliev indicated that the Russian move could help spur a
    regional arms race. He said that Azeri defense spending would
    increase to $300 million in 2005, up from last year's level of $175
    million. `We had to take appropriate measures,' Aliev said, referring
    to the Russian transfer of materiel to Armenia. `We did so
    immediately and increased our military spending. Military spending
    will continue to increase in the future.'

    `Our army should be strong to solve the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
    over [the breakaway region of] Nagorno-Karabakh,' Aliev added.

    Moscow's statements concerning the transfer do not appear to have
    fully reassured the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
    Alliance members have expressed carefully worded concern about the
    pull-out's impact on the regional balance. `We welcome the withdrawal
    of troops. However this step should not affect regional stability in
    the South Caucasus,' NATO Assistant Secretary-General for Defense and
    Policy Planning John Colton said in Baku on 27 June. The defense
    alliance plans to raise the issue with Moscow `in the near future,'
    the Regnum news service reported Colton as saying.

    Many Azeri observers now believe that, in deciding to shift weaponry
    from Georgia to Armenia, Russia's primary intention was to strengthen
    Moscow's own geopolitical position in the region, and not to bolster
    Yerevan's strategic situation vis-a-vis Baku. A June 1 commentary
    published by the independent daily Zerkalo complained that `Russia
    demonstrates its unwillingness to significantly reduce its military
    presence in the South Caucasus region, including [along] the borders
    with Iran and Turkey.' Nasib Nasibli, a political expert at the
    Foundation for Azerbaijan Studies, agreed. `This act by Russia is
    aimed at preserving their influence in the Caucasus.'

    According to the Russian-Georgian withdrawal agreement, at least 40
    units of armored equipment, including 20 tanks, are to be removed
    from Georgia by 1 September. The Azerbaijan-based Turan news agency
    published a report stating that up to 40 Russian tanks could be moved
    to Gyumri from Akhalkalaki. The Azeri foreign ministry announced
    that, if such a report proves accurate, Baku would consider
    implementing `corresponding measures.' Earlier, Azeri officials
    stated that they might reconsider the country's $7 million-per-year
    lease of the Gabala radar facility to Russia.

    Analysts in Yerevan argue that Baku's concerns are misplaced. `[I]f
    we look at the Russian military presence in the South Caucasus. .
    ..the bases in Armenia practically decide nothing, while the radar
    station in Gabala, located on the territory of Àzerbaijan, appears to
    be of great strategic importance,' said Hayk Demoyan, an regional
    political expert at the Caucasus Media Institute.

    Rather than dwelling on the Russian equipment transfer, Armenia has
    tried to concentrate international attention on its expanding ties
    with NATO. On 16 June, Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan presented
    Armenia's Individual Action Partnership Plan (IPAP) to the NATO
    Council. The country has since received assurances from US Ambassador
    to Armenia Robert Evans that the Russian transfer of arms and
    equipment will not preclude further cooperation between Yerevan and
    NATO.

    The press service of the defense ministry in Yerevan has denied the
    existence of any agreement that would give Armenian military forces
    access to the arms and equipment at Russia's base in Gyumri. The
    defense ministry also insists that no plans or intentions exist
    concerning the potential transfer Russian military personnel to
    Armenia from Georgia.

    Despite such assurances, the debate continues in Baku over what
    constitutes an appropriate response. Azeri analysts suggest the most
    likely counter-move would be a strengthening of Baku's relationship
    with NATO. Some point out that on 6 June, Turkey - an Atlantic
    alliance member and Baku's closest ally - announced plans to allocate
    $2.1 million to help the Azeri military adopt NATO military
    standards.

    In recent weeks, President Ilham Aliev's administration has toned
    down its angry rhetoric concerning the equipment-transfer issue. Some
    observers suggest that Baku has come to the realization that it
    cannot stop the transfer. Others say that, with potentially pivotal
    parliamentary elections scheduled for November, Aliev is reluctant to
    risk a full-blown dispute with Russia. Bilateral ties have been
    strengthening since 2000, and Aliev clearly wants to keep them
    cordial. `We are very satisfied with the standard of our
    relationship, one of strategic partnership that meets the interests
    of both Russia and Azerbaijan,' Aliev said at an economic conference
    in St. Petersburg on 14 June.

    Samvel Martirosyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political
    analyst. Alman Mir-Ismail is a freelance political analyst from Baku.
    This article first appeared on EurasiaNet.
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