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Stepan Grigoryan: Russia Cannot Impose Pressure Upon Armenia Because

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  • Stepan Grigoryan: Russia Cannot Impose Pressure Upon Armenia Because

    STEPAN GRIGORYAN: RUSSIA CANNOT IMPOSE PRESSURE UPON ARMENIA BECAUSE OF THE CUSTOMS UNION AS IT SCARES TO LOSE ITS ONLY ALLY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

    Interview of Director of the Centre for Globalization and Regional
    Cooperation Stepan Grigoryan with Arminfo news agency

    by Ashot Safaryan

    ARMINFO Tuesday, April 2, 14:56

    Mr Grigoryan, after the presidential election in Armenia the problem of
    comparison and even confrontation of the integration projects offered
    to us by the global players has again become relevant also thanks to
    Serzh Sargsya~Rs visit first to Moscow than to Brussels. What possible
    scenarios canwe see here?

    I think that by his first after the election visit to Moscow, President
    Serzh Sasrgsyan demonstrated the strategic priorities of Armenia. I
    think that was a wise and correct step. His visit to Moscow was not a
    purely protocol one and contained a certain political gesture. Among
    other issues discussed in Moscow, they also touched on the Customs
    Union. But I don~Rt agree to the statements according to which . Russia
    exerts pressure on Armenia to join the Customs Union.

    In addition, one should not forget the recent statement by Armenian
    President Serzh Sargsyan in an interview with local TV channels
    that in the Customs Union they do not wait for Armenia. I think that
    the given issue was discussed in the course of the president's last
    visit to Moscow and Armenia managed to bring the necessary arguments
    in favor is its refusal to join that organizations. Those arguments
    have probably satisfied the Kremlin.

    Do you rule out raising of then gas tariff by Moscow for Armenia,
    as the optimistic authorities of Armenia do not rule out that?

    As regards the possibility of increasing the Russian gas tariff for
    Armenia in response to Yerevan's refusal to join Moscow's integration
    projects. Over the last years the gas tariff has been growing from time
    to time without any political reasons. Therefore, it is wrong studying
    gas as a measure of pressure on Armenia. Very often we underestimate
    the role of Armenia for Russia in the South Caucasus. It is Armenia
    that ensures military presence of Moscow in the region.

    Russia has a military base in Armenia. As an ally, Armenia has got
    more importance for Russia after exploitation of the Gabala radar
    station was terminated. Gabala radar station's closing down will put
    an end to Russia's military presence in Azerbaijan.

    As for joining the Customs Union , Ukraine and its big market is more
    important for Russia now.

    Of course,. Moscow will not fully dismiss Armenia. Conferences on
    the topic of the Customs Union will be regularly held in Armenia,
    delegations will arrive in Armenia to persuade, at least, the expert
    society, that it is necessary to involve in the integration projects
    of Moscow. However, no radical measures or breakthroughs are expected
    in the visible future

    Against the background of such uncertainty in the matter of the
    Customs union, the prospects of signing the EU Association agreement
    have been gaining specific outlines. Is enthusiasm of the Armenian
    party relevant now, taking into account the recession in the EU?

    Europe has been gradually overcoming consequences of the crisis. The
    most difficult period is already behind. Today there is a tendency
    of the economy growth in several leading European countries -
    Germany, Italy, France, etc. For this reason, I think that parallel
    to surmounting the recession the EU will enhance cooperation with
    its neighbours, including partners at post-Soviet area. Although
    the EU has been developing the Eastern Partnership programme with
    6 countries, there is no word about their joining the EU. For this
    reason, Brussels does not scare that these 6 countries will become a
    burden to it. Armenia should be concerned about rapprochement with
    the EU most of all, as the European game rules are clear unlike,
    for instance, the Customs Union offered by Moscow.

    If not everything is clear with the Customs Union, why do the European
    functionaries worry about that and put Armenia in front of the dilemma
    from time to time?

    The Europeans understand that the game rules in the Customs Union
    confront their rules. For this reason, they worry. However, one
    should understand that this dilemma is regarding only the economic
    cooperation. As for the military and political sphere, here the EU
    does not pretend to the role of Russia in Armenia.

    What developments are expected in the Karabakh settlement in the
    near future?

    There will be no progress in the Nagorno- Karabakh peace talks in the
    near future. Azerbaijan is preparing for a presidential election and
    has no time for peace talks. In fact, there have been no high level
    meetings between Armenia and Azerbaijan for over a year.

    Among the key factors curbing the peace process are no mutual
    confidence, the release of Azeri murderer Ramil Safarov and
    Azerbaijan's tales about "the Khojaly Genocide."

    The Armenian diplomacy must use this pause for active contacts with
    other countries. An inter-parliamentary dialogue and mutual visits are
    crucial for our efforts to raise the world community's awareness of
    the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and to prevent any attempts to distort
    the truth.



    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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