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Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
May 13 2013
Turkey as a regional foreign policy actor
MARC PIERINI
In a few days, Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdošan, will
visit Washington, a significant step for the country which has NATO's
second largest conventional army. The visit will also take place after
a deeply troubled Turkish-Israeli relationship will have been reset at
a proper level, after President Barack Obama's successful
intermediation.
By itself, Turkey's troubled environment sets the agenda for such a
visit: Syria, Iran, Israel, Palestine, Cyprus, Armenia - all these
subjects will no doubt be discussed. The position Turkey will express
in Washington on each of them will craft its image as a regional
foreign policy actor. This is a circumstance where carefully chosen
words and subtle equilibriums, not proclamations or emotions, will
delineate Turkey's policy line for the years to come and its standing
among key actors in its complex region.
The Middle Eastern region, rife with tensions, historical grievances,
but also opportunities, is not a place where attempts at
agenda-setting initiatives are much welcome. The region has rather
been a lesson in modesty for world leaders for at least half a
century. In such a delicate environment, it is worth looking at where
Turkey stands today on some of the issues at hand.
Syria is by far the most dangerous situation for Turkey given the
chaos in which the country is now drifting. Turkey wisely chose last
summer to call for NATO's protection and its legitimate demand was
honored in short order. At this point in time, the narrow possibility
for stopping the bloodshed lies with the U.S. and Russia, at best with
the five permanent members of the United Nations' Security Council.
Other players such as Turkey or Qatar will play a helpful role if they
align themselves with the consensus that was set to emerge from an
international conference on May 7.
The Turkish-Israeli relationship is being restored: the
never-interrupted economic links will take off again, compensations in
the Mavi Marmara case will be paid, diplomatic relations will resume
and even foreign policy discussions will take place, including on
Palestine. In all these compartments, relations will thrive all the
more that both sides will avoid an excessively public diplomacy,
especially on Syria and Palestine. Turkey's analyses will be heard,
not clamor. Beyond this, gas exports from both the Israeli and Cypriot
fields will, in the coming years, constitute the real game-changer
between Turkey and Israel. Subject to studies, such gas resources
could be exported directly from the offshore fields to Turkey via
submarine pipelines and onwards to the European Union, a truly
strategic prospect for both countries as well as for the EU.
Sooner than later, the comprehensive talks in Cyprus will come back to
the fore. In the current economic context, the division of the island
makes less sense than ever. The prospect of tapping large offshore gas
resources to the benefit of both Cypriot communities is another
game-changer for the divided island's leaders, and therefore for
Turkey as well. As much as Turkey's current position on Cyprus is
rooted in the past four decades of history, a profound evolution is
unavoidable and should be carefully nurtured.
On a more general level, the transformation process which is affecting
so many Arab countries is an important element for Turkey as a
regional foreign policy actor. Most of these countries are grappling
with issues such as constitutional reform, judiciary reform, the place
of the various ethnicities within society, press freedom, the role of
women, equilibrium between ballot-box democracy and dialogue (in other
words, the role of civil society and the virtue of consensus) - all
issues where work is in progress in Turkey. The more Turkey resolves
these issues in line with European and Western standards, the more it
will stand out as a respected regional actor.
Where does the European Union fit into this snapshot? Everywhere, is
the short answer. Two EU countries contribute to Turkey's security
with Patriots missile batteries, another is now involved in
reinforcing its energy security. The EU provides for nearly 50 percent
of Turkey's trade and more than 75 percent of the foreign direct
investment it receives. Albeit slow, progress is being made in
accession negotiations, which provides for a Turkey modernized in line
with the world's best economic and governance standards. If Turkey
strikes a deal with the United States on free trade, in parallel with
the future U.S.-EU free trade accord, it will incorporate itself into
the world's major trade and services entity. The EU is a major driver
of Turkey's prosperity.
*This article was written before the May 11 bombings in Hatay province.
Marc Pierini is a former EU career diplomat who is now a scholar at
Carnegie Europe and the Open Society Foundation.
May/13/2013
May 13 2013
Turkey as a regional foreign policy actor
MARC PIERINI
In a few days, Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdošan, will
visit Washington, a significant step for the country which has NATO's
second largest conventional army. The visit will also take place after
a deeply troubled Turkish-Israeli relationship will have been reset at
a proper level, after President Barack Obama's successful
intermediation.
By itself, Turkey's troubled environment sets the agenda for such a
visit: Syria, Iran, Israel, Palestine, Cyprus, Armenia - all these
subjects will no doubt be discussed. The position Turkey will express
in Washington on each of them will craft its image as a regional
foreign policy actor. This is a circumstance where carefully chosen
words and subtle equilibriums, not proclamations or emotions, will
delineate Turkey's policy line for the years to come and its standing
among key actors in its complex region.
The Middle Eastern region, rife with tensions, historical grievances,
but also opportunities, is not a place where attempts at
agenda-setting initiatives are much welcome. The region has rather
been a lesson in modesty for world leaders for at least half a
century. In such a delicate environment, it is worth looking at where
Turkey stands today on some of the issues at hand.
Syria is by far the most dangerous situation for Turkey given the
chaos in which the country is now drifting. Turkey wisely chose last
summer to call for NATO's protection and its legitimate demand was
honored in short order. At this point in time, the narrow possibility
for stopping the bloodshed lies with the U.S. and Russia, at best with
the five permanent members of the United Nations' Security Council.
Other players such as Turkey or Qatar will play a helpful role if they
align themselves with the consensus that was set to emerge from an
international conference on May 7.
The Turkish-Israeli relationship is being restored: the
never-interrupted economic links will take off again, compensations in
the Mavi Marmara case will be paid, diplomatic relations will resume
and even foreign policy discussions will take place, including on
Palestine. In all these compartments, relations will thrive all the
more that both sides will avoid an excessively public diplomacy,
especially on Syria and Palestine. Turkey's analyses will be heard,
not clamor. Beyond this, gas exports from both the Israeli and Cypriot
fields will, in the coming years, constitute the real game-changer
between Turkey and Israel. Subject to studies, such gas resources
could be exported directly from the offshore fields to Turkey via
submarine pipelines and onwards to the European Union, a truly
strategic prospect for both countries as well as for the EU.
Sooner than later, the comprehensive talks in Cyprus will come back to
the fore. In the current economic context, the division of the island
makes less sense than ever. The prospect of tapping large offshore gas
resources to the benefit of both Cypriot communities is another
game-changer for the divided island's leaders, and therefore for
Turkey as well. As much as Turkey's current position on Cyprus is
rooted in the past four decades of history, a profound evolution is
unavoidable and should be carefully nurtured.
On a more general level, the transformation process which is affecting
so many Arab countries is an important element for Turkey as a
regional foreign policy actor. Most of these countries are grappling
with issues such as constitutional reform, judiciary reform, the place
of the various ethnicities within society, press freedom, the role of
women, equilibrium between ballot-box democracy and dialogue (in other
words, the role of civil society and the virtue of consensus) - all
issues where work is in progress in Turkey. The more Turkey resolves
these issues in line with European and Western standards, the more it
will stand out as a respected regional actor.
Where does the European Union fit into this snapshot? Everywhere, is
the short answer. Two EU countries contribute to Turkey's security
with Patriots missile batteries, another is now involved in
reinforcing its energy security. The EU provides for nearly 50 percent
of Turkey's trade and more than 75 percent of the foreign direct
investment it receives. Albeit slow, progress is being made in
accession negotiations, which provides for a Turkey modernized in line
with the world's best economic and governance standards. If Turkey
strikes a deal with the United States on free trade, in parallel with
the future U.S.-EU free trade accord, it will incorporate itself into
the world's major trade and services entity. The EU is a major driver
of Turkey's prosperity.
*This article was written before the May 11 bombings in Hatay province.
Marc Pierini is a former EU career diplomat who is now a scholar at
Carnegie Europe and the Open Society Foundation.
May/13/2013