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Will Russia Be Devoured By The Turkish-Azeri Alliance?

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  • Will Russia Be Devoured By The Turkish-Azeri Alliance?

    WILL RUSSIA BE DEVOURED BY THE TURKISH-AZERI ALLIANCE?

    May 30 2013

    The political scientist sees "hostile elements" in the attitude of
    the Russian Federation President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan didn't
    attend the unofficial meeting of the leaders of the Collective Security
    Treaty Organization (CSTO) countries. By the way, it was the first time
    the President of Armenia had ever failed to attend such a high-level
    event. Yerevan's explanation was interesting: the President of the
    Republic of Armenia will not leave for Bishkek on May 28 in order
    to attend the events dedicated to Republic Day. Stepan Grigoryan,
    a political scientist and the director of the Analytical Center on
    Globalization and Regional Cooperation, thinks that the Armenian
    side's explanation is formally convincing. "It was a national holiday
    in Armenia, very important for us, and it is good that the president
    stayed in Armenia." However, taking into account Armenia's relations
    with Russia and past experience that all Armenian Presidents have
    always attended all those events which were attended by the Russian
    President, a question arises what the reason for such an attitude
    could be. Stepan Grigoryan said in this regard: "The holiday was a
    good excuse not to go, but two problems, I think, underlie this kind
    of decision. The first reason is the increase in gas prices by a high
    percentage, which has caused a big fuss in Armenia and has obviously
    weakened our government's position. The second reason is Lavrov's
    statement." Let us remind that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
    stated at a joint press conference with the Azeri Foreign Minister
    the other day: "Certainly, the status-quo is unacceptable; moreover,
    it is unacceptable for everyone - first of all, for Azerbaijan, Armenia
    and those who live in Nagorno-Karabakh. I am quite sure of that. The
    status-quo means not only failure to solve the issue of the Azeri
    territories' return but also Armenia's economic blockade. That is the
    reason why there is no need to convince anyone in the unacceptability
    of maintaining that situation." By the way, the political scientist
    even sees "hostile elements" in this statement made by Lavrov,
    in particular in the phrase "the Azeri territories' return," since
    neither the US nor Europe nor Iran, not even Turkey, have talked
    much about this issue recently. "It is obvious that both the increase
    in gas prices and Lavrov's statement were received painfully by the
    Armenian government, and it has had its manifestation. Yes, it is not
    a demarche, since it is obvious that there is a formal explanation,
    but it is obvious that these two issues had an indirect effect on the
    Armenian President's attitude," our interlocutor said. By the way,
    the President of the Republic of Armenia didn't attend the unofficial
    conference of the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) that commenced
    in Astana yesterday either. The President of Belarus didn't attend it
    either. Our interlocutor interprets the Armenian President's failure
    to attend that conference as follows: "Armenia is not a member of
    the EurAsEC, it is a member of the CSTO; it suggests a different
    approach. In the second case, it is easier to explain; Armenia enjoys
    the status of an observer at that organization. Therefore, there is
    an answer here too.

    However, this also stems from the previous problem. I am sure that
    the Russian Federation will demand answers from the leaders of the
    Eastern Partnership countries at both informal conferences, and
    the President of Armenia wouldn't like those discussions to take
    place against the background of the above-mentioned problems." Let
    us remind that there is an intention to sign Association Agreements
    with Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, and Georgia within the framework of
    the Eastern Partnership Project by the end of the year, at the Vilnius
    Summit. Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia have no connections with either
    the CSTO or the EurAsEC; thus, they have no problem. Belarus, though,
    is a member of the EurAsEC, but it is not active in the projects of
    the Eastern Partnership, and actual relations are not developed. So the
    Russian Federation would have demanded answers mostly from Armenia. We
    inquired how probable it was that in the current situation, the Russian
    Federation would take a stiffer stance on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue,
    particularly given the fact that the Western wing also seemed to be
    inclined to invigorate the Karabakh conflict settlement process.

    Jean-Claude Mignon, the President of the PACE, who was on an official
    visit to Azerbaijan earlier this week, stated that the year 2013 might
    be a turning point in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, meaning
    the fact that in 2013-2014, Armenia and Azerbaijan would take turns
    in the presidency of the PACE. In the European official's opinion,
    it is a brilliant opportunity to take serious steps to resolve the
    Karabakh issue. Earlier Sabine Freizer, the Director of the Europe
    Program, International Crisis Group, had said that the OSCE Minsk
    Group's mandate had expired, and that new options of the Karabakh
    settlement had to be found. "It is not ruled out that there will
    be invigoration in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, and it will be not
    so advantageous for the Armenian sides. It is very probable that
    the very Russian Federation will move in that direction. However,
    there is one thing about which I want to warn the Russian side;
    if Armenia, to put it bluntly, becomes weaker in the region with
    regard to the Karabakh issue or as a result of competition, we
    can congratulate Russia. The Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance will force
    Russia out of the region completely. If the Russian Federation makes
    those mistakes, yes, Armenia will become weaker, but we can already
    congratulate the Russian Federation, even officially, on the victory
    of the Turkish-Azeri alliance. Unfortunately, it is visible that the
    Russian Federation has taken such an attitude, since it takes steps
    that are not in its strategic interests. If the Russian Federation
    intends to take this path, we cannot help them." Our interlocutor
    thinks that in this situation, Yerevan should continue to be active
    in the Eastern Partnership, and society should support the government,
    since that project will be very useful for Armenia. NELLY GRIGORYAN

    Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2013/05/30/154583/

    © 1998 - 2013 Aravot - News from Armenia

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